1. Cleveland Browns – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia. Picked by Chip Kelly of course. Excitement! Odds on this actually happening right now? I’d say 10 percent.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Shahid Khan keeps saying they’re not moving to LA, but if So Cal is in the franchise’s future, Barkley’s a nice jumping off point. Blaine Gabbert hasn’t show much competency through 20 games.
3. Oakland Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah. Heir apparent to Richard Seymour (who just turned 33) inside? Lotulelei was 3rd in our preseason mock draft. That is, of course, assuming the Raiders keep this pick from the Carson Palmer trade.
4. Kansas City Chiefs – Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU. I know they haven’t had much success with former LSU DL stars, but this is a best-on-board pick. The pressing need is at QB. With Smith/Barkley off the board, is there another QB they’d want this high? The answer might be Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson or Logan Thomas early in the 2nd round.
5. Carolina Panthers – Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia. Weapon for Cam? Secondary in a division with Ryan and Brees? Line protection for Cam? Jones is a monster, and you put him next to Beason and Kuechly and you’ve got an awesome young trio.
6. Arizona Cardinals – Chance Warmack, OL, Alabama. Bottom three offensive line in the NFL needs to protect … well, whoever that sorry QB is. Warmack, through the first six weeks of the season, is emerging as the top prospect on the line.
7. Tennessee Titans – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame. Embarrassingly bad defense can’t stop the run (24th) or the pass (29th). Draft will be spent fortifying the secondary, beefing up the OL.
8. Buffalo Bills – Keenan Allen, WR, California. How can they spend so much on defense only to have it play so poorly? The offensive decision is under the assume the D (last against the run, 173 ypg) improves, and the franchise wants to give Fitzpatrick one last shot.
9. NY Jets – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M. Tough spot because the best DE prospect is gone, they can’t take a QB here, and the LBs I love (Jones, Te’o), won’t drop this far. Too early to grab a RB to replace Greene or a TE to replace Keller. I’d trade down and stockpile picks.
10. Tampa Bay Bucs – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama. Are Tide corners (Arenas, Kirkpatrick) great in college because of the front seven? The 2nd worst pass defense in the NFL to this point grabs the best corner in the draft.
11. St. Louis Rams – Robert Woods, WR, USC. Receivers can’t stay healthy in St. Louis, or they just stink. Is this too early to grab Woods? Maybe, but Bradford is (still) in desperate need of skill players.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU. I give him a slight edge over FSU’s Werner at this point. Can never have enough pass rushers in a division with Stafford, Rodgers & Cutler.
Washington Redskins St. Louis Rams (from Redskins)- Taylor Lewan, OL, Michigan. Protect RG3 Bradford should be the mission of this franchise for the next decade.
14. Indianapolis Colts – Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State. I know Andrew Luck needs an RB, but you can get one in the 2nd round. The run defense is giving up 159 ypg. Defense needs to be the top priority.
15. New Orleans Saints – Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State. Odious secondary beefs up with SEC star.
17. Detroit Lions – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia. Rapidly-rising, mean streak, but might be better suited for a 3-4. Most importantly … can he play special teams?
18. Cincinnati Bengals – TJ McDonald, S, USC. Defense has been looking leaky early, but they just took two DTs early last year. McDonald would replace former Trojan Taylor Mays.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama. What will the new coach want? Think you have to go OL regardless of whether or not Vick returns.
20. Seattle Seahawks – Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State. Best-on-board spot for the Seahawks, who don’t have any glaring holes so far, and have lost three games by a TD or less.
21. Miami Dolphins – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee. Brian Hartline is the only pass-catching option for Ryan Tannehill. Or does Joe Philbin subscribe to the “you can get a WR anytime” philosophy the Packers did?
23. San Francisco 49ers – Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina. Gore turns 30 in the offseason. Lattimore is the best back (by a considerable margin, right now) in the draft (assuming he enters).
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – John Jenkins, DT, Georgia. Probably won’t fall this far if his great senior season continues.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State. It has to be defense. Brown won’t be the replacement for Ray Lewis, obviously, but he’s very good against the run. The Ravens (136 ypg) are not.
26. Atlanta Falcons – Sean Porter, LB, Texas A&M. Falcons run defense (143 ypg) will definitely hurt them in the postseason. The DL is solid; the linebackers need improvement.
27. Green Bay Packers – Ricky Wagner, OL, Wisconsin. Sky was falling two weeks ago after the loss to Indy; then the Packers throttled Houston. I’m thinking OL or secondary.
28. Denver Broncos – Kawann Short, DT, Purdue. Broncos run defense needs some help (115 ypg).
29. Chicago Bears – D.J. Fluker, OL, Alabama. Jay Cutler would love this move. Yes, that’s three Tide lineman going in the first round.
30. Houston Texans – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee. Andre Johnson is looking a tad old, no? I was also thinking corner here, but Patterson, six games into his college career (he went the JUCO route) has looked like one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in the SEC.
31. New England Patriots – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas. Trading it, obviously. On the off chance Belichick keeps it, my guess right now is they bolster the secondary.
32. NY Giants – Kevin Minter, LB, LSU. Giants OL could use some help, and someone in the secondary always seems to get hurt. I like what I’ve seen from Minter this year.