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Andrew Luck is 4th in the NFL in 3rd & 4th Down Passing; Robert Griffin III is 25th

On Monday, I went with Andrew Luck instead of Robert Griffin III for my Offensive Rookie of the first half. Griffin would be a great choice many years, and his raw numbers stand out, with a much higher completion percentage and a higher yards per attempt.

Today, Chase Stuart at Football Perspective has a post looking at third down and fourth down passing. In it, he not only looked at raw passing numbers, but also adjusted conversion rates by the situations faced, so that quarterbacks who had longer yardage situations will be adjusted upward because we would expect their conversion rate to be lower.

Among the highlights:

* Andrew Luck checks in at 4th, behind Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan, and just ahead of Tom Brady. A month ago, I talked about QBR and how once we adjusted for schedule, Luck rated very highly. Third down performance is one of the reasons for that. Griffin meanwhile, came in at 25th, converting 29.5% when the expectation based on yards to go was 35.1%.

* Griffin is just ahead of both New York quarterbacks on the list, Mark Sanchez and Eli Manning. Eli Manning’s conversion rate is near average, but he has faced easier situations than most quarterbacks. His brother, Peyton Manning, is first and another reason to view him as a legitimate MVP candidate.

* Blaine Gabbert is, of course, near the bottom (32nd), but two AFC North quarterbacks, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton rank in the other bottom slots. Dalton has only converted 20.8% of passing first downs so far.

[photo via US Presswire]

 

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