The Big Lead

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em, Week 10: Tampa's Offense Rolling and Vincent Jackson Gets a Chance for Revenge

By Jason Lisk

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A quick word on these projections. I set my projections using team performance in categories for the year, and then also comparing the opponent’s yards and touchdowns allowed. Obviously, the Patriots “quarterbacks” represents Tom Brady, and will also continue to do so going forward. For cases like the Titans at quarterback this week, or Emmanuel Sanders or Taiwan Jones tepping in to a more prominent role, though, it matters. Depending on the position, the opponent adjustment applies more heavily. For quarterbacks, there is more variation so I weight the individual more heavily. For tight ends, the same is true, because Gronkowski is going to get his no matter what and matchups only matter in deciding between otherwise even players.

I then guess at the percentage distribution of production by team, based on things like what they’ve done recently, and the matchup. Sometimes it is complete guesswork. How will Oakland divide up between Taiwan Jones and Marcel Reece? I went 60/40 Jones. For others, it’s pretty consistent, we can be sure that Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch will get almost all of their team’s running back numbers.

The matchup starts, among guys not likely to be starters normally, are:

QB: Josh Freeman (time to get him in the lineup), Joe Flacco (Raiders secondary issues) and if you are desperate, Jake Locker against the Dolphins.

RB: Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer against the Chiefs, Taiwan Jones and Marcel Reece, Jacquizz Rodgers against the Saints.

WR: Brian Hartline and Davone Bess vs. the Titans, Emmanuel Sanders vs. the Chiefs, Donald Jones vs. the Patriots.

QUARTERBACKS

  1. Tom Brady vs. BUF
  2. Matt Ryan at NO
  3. Drew Brees vs. ATL
  4. Peyton Manning at CAR
  5. Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC
  6. Josh Freeman vs. SD
  7. Matt Stafford at MIN
  8. Cam Newton vs. DEN
  9. Carson Palmer at BAL
  10. Joe Flacco vs. OAK
  11. Eli Manning at CIN
  12. Ryan Fitzpatrick at NE
  13. Andy Dalton vs. NYG
  14. Tony Romo at PHI
  15. Michael Vick vs. DAL
  16. Philip Rivers at TB
  17. Jake Locker at MIA
  18. Alex Smith vs. STL
  19. Jay Cutler vs. HOU
  20. Matt Schaub at CHI
  21. Ryan Tannehill vs. TEN
  22. Russell Wilson vs. NYJ
  23. Christian Ponder vs. DET
  24. Sam Bradford at SF
  25. Mark Sanchez at SEA
  26. Matt Cassel at PIT

RUNNING BACKS

  1. Ray Rice vs. OAK
  2. Doug Martin vs. SD
  3. Marshawn Lynch vs. NYJ
  4. Arian Foster at CHI
  5. Adrian Peterson vs. DET
  6. Stevan Ridley vs. BUF
  7. Willis McGahee at CAR
  8. Reggie Bush vs. TEN
  9. Michael Turner at NO
  10. Frank Gore vs. STL
  11. LeSean McCoy vs. DAL
  12. Jamaal Charles at PIT
  13. C.J. Spiller at NE
  14. Ryan Mathews at TB
  15. Shonn Greene at SEA
  16. Isaac Redman vs. KC
  17. Chris Johnson at MIA
  18. Matt Forte vs. HOU
  19. Ahmad Bradshaw at CIN
  20. Pierre Thomas vs. ATL
  21. Taiwan Jones at BAL
  22. Mikel LeShoure at MIN
  23. Jonathan Dwyer vs. KC
  24. Daniel Thomas vs. TEN
  25. Marcel Reece at BAL
  26. Jonathan Stewart vs. DEN
  27. Benjarvus Green-Ellis vs. NYG
  28. Felix Jones at PHI
  29. Jacquizz Rodgers at NO
  30. Shane Vereen vs. BUF
  31. Andre Brown at CIN
  32. Danny Woodhead vs. BUF
  33. DeAngelo Williams vs. DEN
  34. Ronnie Hillman at CAR
  35. Steven Jackson at SF
  36. Joique Bell at MIN
  37. Kendall Hunter vs. STL
  38. Fred Jackson at NE
  39. Chris Ivory vs. ATL
  40. Bernard Pierce vs. OAK

WIDE RECEIVERS

  1. Roddy White at NO
  2. A.J. Green vs. NYG
  3. Brandon Marshall vs. HOU
  4. Julio Jones at NO
  5. Wes Welker vs. BUF
  6. Calvin Johnson at MIN
  7. Demaryius Thomas at CAR
  8. Vincent Jackson vs. SD
  9. Victor Cruz at CIN
  10. Miles Austin at PHI
  11. Eric Decker at CAR
  12. Kenny Britt at MIA
  13. Marques Colston vs. ATL
  14. Malcom Floyd at TB
  15. Torrey Smith vs. OAK
  16. Mike Wallace vs. KC
  17. Brian Hartline vs. TEN
  18. Dez Bryant at PHI
  19. Mike Williams vs. SD
  20. Steve Smith vs. DEN
  21. Andre Johnson at CHI
  22. Brandon Lloyd vs. BUF
  23. Denarius Moore at BAL
  24. Michael Crabtree vs. STL
  25. Davone Bess vs. TEN
  26. Anquan Boldin vs. OAK
  27. Titus Young at MIN
  28. Jeremy Kerley at SEA
  29. Steve Johnson vs. NE
  30. Darrius Heyward-Bey at BAL
  31. Hakeem Nicks at CIN*
  32. DeSean Jackson vs. DAL
  33. Lance Moore vs. ATL
  34. Emmanuel Sanders vs. KC
  35. Kendall Wright at MIA
  36. Danny Amendola at SF*
  37. Donald Jones at NE
  38. Sidney Rice vs. NYJ
  39. Jeremy Maclin vs. DAL
  40. Andrew Hawkins vs. NYG

 

TIGHT ENDS

  1. Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF
  2. Jimmy Graham vs. ATL
  3. Jason Witten at PHI
  4. Tony Gonzalez at NO
  5. Owen Daniels at CHI*
  6. Heath Miller vs. KC
  7. Vernon Davis vs. STL
  8. Antonio Gates at TB
  9. Brandon Myers at BAL
  10. Jermaine Gresham vs. NYG
  11. Greg Olsen vs. DEN
  12. Brandon Pettigrew at MIN
  13. Dustin Keller at SEA
  14. Scott Chandler at NE
  15. Brent Celek vs. DAL
  16. Dennis Pitta vs. OAK
  17. Kyle Rudolph vs. DET
  18. Jared Cook at MIA
  19. Anthony Fasano vs. TEN
  20. Jacob Tamme at CAR

[photo via US Presswire]