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Bracketology: Indiana Still a No. 1 Seed, Virginia In, Iowa and Kentucky Out

One final weekend of college basketball left before the Madness of conference tournaments hits fans like a full court press. The top seeds are still very much in doubt. Almost exactly half of the top two seeds ended up winning their conference tournament (and the automatic bid) over the last decade. I have a feeling that number will be slightly higher in 2013, and teams on the top four seed lines could have plenty of movement potential based on the upcoming tournaments.

Right now, I have Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Indiana as the top seeds. [A week ago, Jason's guesses were Kansas, Miami, Gonzaga and Indiana.] We could probably just sub in “whoever wins the Big Ten tournament” in that last slot, and I’ll tenuously put Indiana as the slightly most likely contender to do that.

[RELATED: Best Way to Pick Final Four Teams? Look at Ken Pomeroy’s Defensive Efficiency Numbers]

At the other end, I continue to project Iowa much higher than most. I’ve got the Hawkeyes as the first out right now. I went through the true bubble teams, and with conference tournament matchups getting a little more certain and only one game left for most teams, we can reasonably assess teams. I think Iowa has about a 25% chance of getting in the tournament (mainly limited by beating the 2 or 3 seed in the Big Ten tourney). A 9-9 team in the best conference and a quality tourney win would have a very good chance, despite the current projections by other brackets.

[RELATED: Bracket Analysis: Duke, Indiana, Michigan and Gonzaga at the Top Seeds Using Wins Above Median At-Large]

The SEC will be wild, and I now have Alabama in (the best chance to reach the semis) and Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi out, based on potential matchups. Tennessee and Kentucky have a chance to swing that this weekend with big home games against Missouri and Florida, respectively. Virginia’s loss at Florida State has them on the cut line. The Cavaliers have to beat Maryland and then beat someone like NC State in the ACC tournament quarters, in my opinion.

#1 Seeds: Duke*, Gonzaga*, Louisville*, Indiana*

#2 Seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Florida*, Kansas*

#3 Seeds: Georgetown, Miami, New Mexico*, Ohio State

#4 Seeds: Marquette, Syracuse, Arizona*, Kansas State

#5 Seeds: Oklahoma State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

#6 Seeds: Colorado State, Wisconsin, Virginia Commonwealth*, Missouri

#7 Seeds: Minnesota, Butler, St. Louis, Notre Dame

#8 Seeds: Colorado, North Carolina State, Memphis*, UCLA

#9 Seeds: Oklahoma, Middle Tennessee*, St. Mary’s, Creighton*

#10 Seeds: Wichita State, Illinois, San Diego State, Oregon

#11 Seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, California, Temple

#12 Seeds: Belmont*, La Salle, Boise State vs. Villanova, Alabama vs. Virginia

#13 Seeds: Akron*, Davidson*, Denver*, Bucknell*

#14 Seeds: South Dakota State*, Stephen F. Austin*, Valparaiso*, Stony Brook*

#15 Seeds: Weber State*, Princeton*, Long Beach*, Niagara*

#16 Seeds: Robert Morris*, Mercer*, UNC-Central* vs. Northeastern*, Texas Southern* vs. Charleston Southern*

First Eight Out: Iowa, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Providence, Baylor, Massachusetts, Southern Miss

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