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Mocking the 2013 NFL Mock Drafts: A Second Level Look at Tiers and Players

Mock drafts are usually prepared by one person, maybe a couple. They may contain the views of one (often very smart/researched) individual, but still the views of one. I decided to look at a variety of mock drafts, available on a number of sites including nfl.com, cbssports.com, and ESPN. I ultimately found 20 different mocks that had 32 selections or player rankings for this draft, most updated in the last week. I then used a random order generator to select the draft order of the twenty mocks, and assigned the top listed remaining pick when the turn came up.

This, then, is a second order mock of the mock drafts, combining different viewpoints. What this is not is an attempt to assign specific needs to teams when they were on the clock; some of the individual picks may not make sense for a particular team. Look at it more for the range, and keep in mind that the real draft consists of trades and 32 different views, not just 20.

This exercise reveals a couple of things. The primary thing is how diverse the views are and how deep the late first round and second round is perceived to be. Sixty-one different players appear in at least one of the mock drafts used. I also list the ranking that the particular selector had on that player, so we can see where tiers take off.

  1. Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan, KC (Russ Lande, NFP-1st)
  2. Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M, JAC (Gil Brandt, NFL.com- 1st)
  3. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia, OAK (Josh Norris, Rotoworld – 2nd)
  4. Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida, PHI (Rob Rang, CBS.com – 2nd)
  5. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon, DET (Don Banks, SI – 3rd)
  6. Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri, CLE (Mike Florio, PFT – 4th)
  7. Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU, ARI (Charlie Casserly, NFL.com – 5th)
  8. Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama, BUF (Pat Kirwan, CBS.com – 2nd)
  9. Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma, NYJ (WalterFootball.com – 6th)
  10. Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina, TEN (Bucky Brooks, NFL.com – 7th)
  11. Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State, SD (Lance Zierlein, The Z Report – 9th)
  12. Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse, ARI (Dane Brugler, CBS.com – 8th)
  13. Matt Barkley, QB, USC, TB (Chris Steuber, Ourlads.com – 8th)
  14. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia, CAR (Eric Galko, Sporting News – 6th)
  15. Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah, NO (Akbar Gbajabiamila, NFL.com – 1st)
  16. Barkevious Mingo, DT, LSU, STL (Pete Prisco, CBS.com – 4th)
  17. Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama, PIT (Todd McShay, ESPN – 11th)
  18. Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia, DAL (Chris Burke, SI, 8th)
  19. D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama, NYG (Mel Kiper, ESPN, 12th)
  20. Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State, CHI (John McClain, Houston Chronicle – 13th)
  21. Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina, CIN (Russ Lande, NFP-1oth)
  22. Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas, STL (Gil Brandt, NFL.com- 15th)
  23. Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame, MIN (Josh Norris, Rotoworld – 13th)
  24. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee, IND (Rob Rang, CBS.com – 17th)
  25. Alec Ogletree, OLB, Georgia, MIN (Don Banks, SI – 20th)
  26. Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington, GB  (Mike Florio, PFT – 10th)
  27. Keenan Allen, WR, California, HOU (Charlie Casserly, NFL.com – 21st)
  28. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M, DEN (Pat Kirwan, CBS.com – 21st)
  29. Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA, NE (WalterFootball.com – 24th)
  30. Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama, ATL (Bucky Brooks, NFL.com – 22nd)
  31. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson, SF (Lance Zierlein, The Z Report – 18th)
  32. Cornellius “Tank” Carradine, DE, Florida State, BAL (Dane Brugler, CBS.com – 21st)
  33. Matt Elam, S, Florida, JAC (Chris Steuber, Ourlads.com – 16th)
  34. Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International, SF (Eric Galko, Sporting News – 15th)
  35. Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State, PHI (Akbar Gbajabiamila, NFL.com – 18th)
  36. Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State, DET (Pete Prisco, CBS.com – 25th)
  37. Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame, CIN (Todd McShay, ESPN – 25th)
  38. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas, ARI (Chris Burke, SI – 23rd)
  39. Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU, NYJ (Mel Kiper, ESPN, 25th)
  40. Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor, TEN (John McClain, Houston Chronicle – 27th)
  41. Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn, BUF (Russ Lande, NFP-28th)
  42. Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State, MIA (Gil Brandt, NFL.com- 25th)
  43. Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State, TB(Josh Norris, Rotoworld – 20th)
  44. Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State, CAR (Rob Rang, CBS.com – 24th)
  45. Margus Hunt, DT, SMU, SD(Don Banks, SI – 29th)
  46. Tharold Simon, CB, LSU, STL(Mike Florio, PFT – 25th)
  47. Kawann Short, DT, Purdue, DAL (Charlie Casserly, NFL.com – 23rd)
  48. Eric Reid, S, LSU, PIT(Pat Kirwan, CBS.com – 31st)
  49. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee, NYG (WalterFootball.com – 27th)
  50. Robert Woods, WR, USC, CHI (Bucky Brooks, NFL.com – 27th)
  51. Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky, WAS(Lance Zierlein, The Z Report – 32nd)
  52. Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama, MIN(Dane Brugler, CBS.com – 31st)
  53. David Amerson, DB, NC State, CIN(Chris Steuber, Ourlads.com – 31st)
  54. Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech, MIA(Eric Galko, Sporting News – 29th)
  55. Robert Alford, CB, SE Louisiana, GB (Akbar Gbajabiamila, NFL.com – 32nd)
  56. D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston, SEA(Pete Prisco, CBS.com – 30th)
  57. Justin Pugh, OG, Syracuse, HOU(Todd McShay, ESPN – 29th)
  58. Kyle Long, OG, Oregon, DEN (Chris Burke, SI – 39th, Mel Kiper, ESPN, 30th)
  59. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin, NE (Gil Brandt, NFL.com- 26th)
  60. John Jenkins, NT, Georgia, ATL (Mike Florio, PFT – 26th)
  61. Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Eric Galko, Sporting News – 30th)

How diverse were the views? Look just how flat the individual mocker’s rankings on the second round picks are. I got all the way to pick #58 before one of the assigned selectors had used up all 32 of their projected first round picks. Here is a visual showing how the selector internal rankings of players flattens out as we enter the second round:

The value rises through the first round, but by the start of the second round is pretty flat. Don’t get caught up with whether Margus Hunt or Datone Jones goes first in this exercise; that was based on when the particular selector that favored them came up. Other than a couple of safeties rated highly on some boards that fell to the top of the 2nd (the perfect spot for San Francisco to trade into, if this holds), the player ratings from the late first round to end of second are similar. Remember this is 20 different evaluators. When 32 teams get together, you may see an even broader perception of value. Based on this, I would expect the period from about pick 20 to the end of the second round to be very active in trades.

[photo via USA Today Sports Images]

 

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