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College Football 2013 Win Total Predictions: Unders

Mississippi State Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide

College football over/under win totals are out. Here are five teams we predict will hit the under on win total. We won’t be offended if you run out and bet the opposite.

BYU [8] BYU has not beaten good teams and lost a lot up front defensively. This year, they play a number of good teams. They cross the country for a season opener at Virginia, then play Texas at home the following week. They also host Georgia Tech and Boise State and travel to Wisconsin, to Notre Dame and to Nevada in November. Add in the rivalry games with Utah State and Utah. Every year the Cougars are hyped to start the season. Often, they fall flat.

California [4] We like where Sonny Dykes may be heading, but expect the road to be long and arduous. Cal has just nine returning starters. They play seven of the initial Coaches’ Top 25, including two of the three non-conference games. They also play Washington (away) and Arizona. The Bears should beat Portland State. They will be favorites at home against Washington State and favored on the road at Colorado. But beyond that, it’s hard to see a win on the schedule. Cal may have to “bear down” and build momentum through recruiting.

Ole Miss [8] The Rebels stepped forward last year. Let’s not overstate it. Five of their six wins came against Central Arkansas, UTEP, Tulane and the worst Auburn/Arkansas teams in recent memory. Ole Miss should improve, but their 2013 schedule is far less forgiving. Their first four FBS games, all on the road, are against Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama and Auburn. They finally arrive back home, to play Texas A&M and LSU. Beyond that, they still have potential slip ups against Arkansas, Missouri and Mississippi State on the schedule. They could have a very solid year, and finish 7-5.

Mississippi State [6] One. Dan Mullen has beaten one bowl-bound SEC West team in four seasons. That win came against Houston Nutt in 2009. The Bulldogs have a draining five-week stretch to close the season: at South Carolina, at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, Ole Miss. They also have to play a neutral site with Oklahoma State and another home game against LSU. If they lose the five games to teams starting in the Top 15, they would have to sweep Ole Miss, Auburn and Arkansas to hit the over. Not looking good for a coach, fairly or unfairly, entering the season on the hot seat.

Purdue [5.5] Purdue has a new coach and new systems (the excitement is palpable). They have significant personnel turnover on offense. Kawann Short departs from the conference’s 10th ranked yards per play defense. This is not a very good team, with a rather demanding schedule. From Sept. 14 to Nov. 2, they get pounded by Notre Dame and Wisconsin (road), chase Jordan Lynch around the field vs. Northern Illinois and then play Nebraska, Michigan State (road) and Ohio State. They have road trips to Cincinnati, to Penn State and to a potentially improved Indiana. Iowa and Illinois aren’t body bags, for them. That makes Indiana State the one lock down win on the schedule. We don’t see the Boilermakers winning six.

Washington State [4.5] Mike Leach may have found some Cougars. Still, four out of five offensive line starters being former walk-ons is frightening. They go to Auburn for the season opener, then play at USC the following Saturday. WSU has road games at Oregon, at Arizona and at Washington. They must play Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State at home. If they win the FCS game, beat Cal away and hold off Utah at home, they still need two more upsets to get the over. Maybe they surprise one team, but two seems a stretch.

[Photo via Getty]

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