Both Signing Day and the Super Bowl are approaching. NationalHSFootball.com has provided some interesting numbers about the relationship between the two. Both the Broncos and the Seahawks have more two-star Rivals recruits on their rosters than four/five-star ones, most notably Russell Wilson. The Seahawks, in fact, have more players who were unranked by Rivals than four/five-star players.
But the numbers may mislead a bit. Twenty of the 125 players graduated high school before Rivals rankings. We can presume a player such as Peyton Manning, Gatorade National Player of the Year in 1994, would have fallen in Rivals’ four/five star range. There’s also simply a much larger pool of two/three-star players than four/five-star ones. So, these numbers say little about the rates of success for players in each star category.
Draft evaluations are often inaccurate. Recruiting evaluations, formed with far less data and film, are even worse. Take this as a healthy reminder Signing Day isn’t everything. Awesome five-star guy your school just signed may be the next great thing in college football. He may not. That said, bringing in the best rated talent correlates with success. Great seasons for Alabama and Florida State start in February.
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