World Cup 2014 Group E Advancement: France All But Through, Ecuador or Switzerland For Second Place

France: FRA win Group E with a win, a draw, or a loss by less than three goals to ECU. With a (+8) goal difference advantage over SWI, it would take two, improbable blowouts for them to be eliminated. FiveThirtyEight gives that a .02 percent chance of happening.

Ecuador: ECU goes through with a win over FRA and a SWI draw/loss or a draw with FRA and a SWI draw/loss. If both Ecuador and SWI win/lose it will come down to goal difference. ECU has a (+2) advantage.

Switzerland: Switzerland goes through with a win over HON and an ECU draw/loss. They also go through with a draw and an ECU loss. If both ECU and SWI win/lose, SWI must overturn a (-2) goal difference margin.

Honduras: The only scenario where HON goes through is a multiple-goal win over SWI plus a massive FRA win over ECU. They need SWI and ECU on three points and to pass them on tiebreakers. HON is two behind FRA and four behind ECU. Possible but unlikely.

Anniversary: Four years ago today, Switzerland failed to beat Honduras, drawing them 0-0 in the final group match. The Swiss, thus, failed to advance from Group H after beating Spain in the first match.

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