Road to the College Football Playoff Week 3: Georgia vs. South Carolina, And Not Much Else

There’s not much in the way of narrative this week. Georgia vs. South Carolina is the only meeting of ranked teams, or, truth be told, good ones. Saturday’s “marquee” night games are multiple-touchdown spreads. If forced to attend a fall wedding this weekend, you are probably in a good place. Also a good night to treat the young lady or gentleman in your life and accrue bonus points for later in the season.

South Carolina hosts Georgia in an SEC East six-pointer. The Dawgs pulled away late against a rebuilding Clemson on running back play, then took a siesta. The Gamecocks were boat raced at home by Texas A&M, then bounced back with a win against a decent East Carolina. South Carolina lost 41-30 in Athens last year, but have won three of the past four. Five of the nine meetings in the Spurrier era have been decided by one score. Georgia has been held to seven points or fewer the past two trips to Columbia and has not scored three touchdowns there under Richt.

Running backs provide the big names. Todd Gurley is the current Heisman favorite. Though, this may come down to the fifth-year quarterbacks. South Carolina needs Dylan Thompson missile command to make some plays against a vulnerable Georgia secondary. The Dawgs will hope for a better showing from stopgap Hutson Mason against an ineffective South Carolina pass defense.

Mark Richt’s recent road history is worth noting. He has lost four of his last seven trips away from Athens. Two of the wins came in overtime to Tennessee and Georgia Tech. The third was by a field goal, after nearly blowing a 20-point halftime lead to a four-win Florida team.

Beyond that…Swagger Kliff squares off with Swaggering Bert. Bob Stoops will try to rub the SEC’s noses in it again against Butch Jones’ young 2-0 Tennessee team. Michigan could draw fewer than 100,000 fans for the first time since 1975 (need more fireworks, obvs). There’s a B1G East turf battle between Penn State and Rutgers. The Jerry Dome hosts a pillow fight between Pre-Season Hype Champions UCLA and a really decrepit looking Texas team. Nothing says dominant intent like the Gatorade bath after beating North Texas.

Picks

We went 3-2 last week, bringing us to 6-4 ATS for the season. Here are some games we like this week…

South Carolina (+6.5) vs. Georgia… Steve Spurrier enjoys trolling Georgia. This game tends to be close, despite talent disparities. The Gamecocks have struggled against the pass. We’re still not sure the Dawgs can do that efficiently. Mark Richt’s last decisive victory over a competent opponent in their home stadium was…not this decade.

Arkansas (+1.5) vs. Texas Tech… The Red Raiders have looked sloppy and downright ineffective in one-score wins against Central Arkansas and UTEP. They could not stop the Miners from running on them. Arkansas are more competent than people think against a brutal schedule. The Razorbacks can run the dang ball. Roll Bielema.

South Alabama (+14) vs. Mississippi State… South Alabama went 6-6 in their first FBS season, including five one-score losses. One of those was at Tennessee. The Bulldogs’ defense had some spectacular breakdowns against UAB last week. This is a look-ahead spot with LSU next week. Do we trust Dan Mullen to clear a two-touchdown spread on the road? We do not.

Boston College (+17) vs. USC… This is a letdown spot for the Trojans after the Stanford win, a recovery week after the physical toll of playing Stanford and their second-straight road game after a cross-country flight. The Eagles don’t soar, but they do play tough at home. They are 9-4 ATS in Chestnut Hill since 2012, including hard-fought losses against FSU and Clemson.

East Carolina (+11) at Virginia Tech… Virginia Tech is due for a letdown coming off a huge win at Ohio State, but one where they did not look that great. The Pirates played hard against South Carolina last week. The Hokies won’t be able to just blitz Shane Carden into submission. Their offense won’t create distance. The last two meetings between these teams were decided by seven points or fewer.

Buffalo (+34.5) vs. Baylor… Baylor is phenomenal ATS at home. On the road, they are 4-9 since 2011. We’re not sure Baylor pushes Bryce Petty too hard on an injured back. The Bulls also showed, in a near comeback last week, they can put up points in a hurry when teams take their foot off the gas.

[USA Today Sports]