Could Shallow College Football Coaching Pool Save Hoke, Muschamp and Others?
By Ty Duffy
Three quarters of the college football season remain. Condemning any coach, at this stage, would be premature. But, we can presume some coaches will be fired by the end of season. It would be a reasonable bet that at least one of them is at a big name program. Florida and Michigan have definite “hot seat” situations. An NFL team could mount a raid for Brian Kelly at Notre Dame or Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M. Such a high-profile vacancy would be interesting, since the probable coaching pool appears quite shallow.
Television revenue has been an equalizer. Every big five school has facilities. Nearly every school can offer competitive wages. It’s nice being at Texas, USC or Michigan. But, it’s not necessary. Michigan State and Stanford have had sustained national success. Good big five coaches will prove difficult to pluck. There is no obvious “Charlie Strong” or “Chris Petersen” waiting on the outside this year. The potential market does not have a no-brainer candidate who would definitely take a new job, or anything close to one.
Here’s a semi-plausible top-end of available coaches next off-season.
Home Run Hires
Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers): Harbaugh is the panacea hire. He brings the swagger back. Raising Stanford from one-win to 11 in four years was a Herculean feat. Subsequent seasons have shown the foundation he laid to be rock solid. He seems to be wearing out his welcome with the 49ers. His style may be better suited to college. Though, it’s unclear whether he want to go back to college recruiting. Michigan could offer him everything he could want, except the opportunity to get back at his brother and Pete Carroll.
Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State): Gundy has built Oklahoma State from mediocre to perennial title contender. He’s only 47. He is an OSU alum and has spent most of his coaching career there. However, perpetual job linkage suggests he is not nesting. He nearly left for Tennessee before they hired Butch Jones. Gundy has a reasonable buyout. Would a blue blood job (and a near doubling of salary) be enough to pry him from T. Boone’s talons?
Experienced Head Coaches
Greg Schiano (Rutgers): Schiano built Rutgers into something, turned down Miami and Michigan, hit a ceiling, jumped to the NFL and then had a rough go of it. His reputation is perhaps worse than his college CV. He’ll be available, interested and a second-tier, down on its luck Big Ten program could do worse.
Mark Stoops (Kentucky): Stoops is building a program. Pulling kids away from Alabama and USC to come to Kentucky for football, he can clearly recruit at a top level. He almost beat Florida last weekend. But, he’s 2-11 vs. FBS teams. He has yet to win an SEC game. He could be destined for big things, but it has not manifested itself on the field yet.
Paul Chryst (Pittsburgh): Chryst had a stellar track record as a Wisconsin assistant. He’s poised for a breakout third season, with the Panthers rounding into form against a forgiving schedule. He’s only 48. The Power of Chryst could compel a program, wary of transitioning personnel back to a spread offense.
Scott Shafer (Syracuse): Shafer has a solid record as a defensive coordinator, except for his one year at Michigan. He took ‘Cuse to a bowl season his first year. It’s hard to see them making a major step forward this year with a tough schedule. But, he could start being tossed around should Syracuse get into the 9-10 win range.
Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette): Hudspeth has about as solid a lower-level track record as one can get. He had five double-digit wins in six seasons with North Alabama. Stepping up to FBS, he has racked up three-straight nine-win seasons, at a school that often plays at least one pay check game. Yes, he can also bench press.
Top Coordinators
Chad Morris (Clemson): He has done a tremendous job with Clemson’s offense. His name has been batted around for head jobs for a couple years now. The trouble is his contract. He has four years guaranteed left at $1.3 million per year. You don’t turn that down for just any head coaching job. The jobs he would turn down are the ones where he would be a lead candidate. Like Gus Malzahn in 2011, it may be a situation where he takes a pay cut to prove himself.
Kirby Smart (Alabama): Smart has been Alabama’s defensive coordinator since 2008, and coordinated, with substantial input from Saban, some of the top units in the game’s history. He’s still just 38 and can choose a spot for when he wants to take a head coaching gig. That spot may be Alabama in a few years.
Let’s say Michigan muddles its way to 8-4 or Florida finishes 7-5 against its sadistic schedule. That leaves both programs questioning the future with Hoke and Muschamp. But the available coaching pool provides no obvious answer.
Harbaugh (Michigan) or Gundy (Florida) would be great hires. But no one even knows whether they’d be interested in those jobs. Beyond those two it is a loooong way down the list to that second tier. That would mean (a) overpaying radically to possibly get more names in play (b) hiring someone underwhelming or (c) taking a huge risk on a coordinator. None of those options is really appealing or, necessarily, better than what they have.
Unless things get truly untenable, the best option for Michigan, Florida and other schools may be to stand pat and try their luck in 2015, however depressed their respective fan bases become.