The College Football Playoff: Where We Stand Entering Week Four

College football is now about reaching the final four. The final four will be chosen by a committee based largely on perception. Since few teams have looked convincing, the lesson may be to presume as little as possible. Here’s a rough breakdown of how the conferences stand after the third week moving forward. A few teams that lost early are not definitively out of the mix. Spoiler: the Big Ten looks like it will be the odd big five conference left out.

ACC

Realistically, the ACC needs an undefeated team for a playoff bid. Their schedules are not strong enough for a team to recover from a loss. Florida State does not look as imperious as last year. But, Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida are all at home. The schedule lines up well for 13-0. Though, that same schedule could hamstring them if they lose. FSU could be a one-loss team whose best win came against an 8-4 team. Any team from the Coastal would have an even weaker schedule with one loss.

In Play: Florida State
Possibly: Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina

The Big Ten

If we presume Penn State and Nebraska don’t run the table, the B1G will have, at best, a one-loss champion. That champion will have a hard time reaching the playoff.

Wisconsin and Michigan State are favorites. Both scheduled ambitiously out of conference and lost. Wisconsin’s defeat was close, though it could be to the third or fourth place SEC West team. Michigan State’s, however competitive much of the game was, was not. Losing by three scores to Oregon is not an argument to include them.

Weakness in the rest of the conference will hurt their case. The Badgers’ best win may be an okay Nebraska team. Michigan State must hope Ohio State rebounds to a top 15-ish team. The only quality win for either may be against each other in the B1G title game.

Michigan State’s reputation may help them, a bit. The B1G is not eliminated on paper. But it looks as though the B1G will need some carnage in other conferences to have a shot.

In Play: Michigan State, Wisconsin
Possibly: Nebraska, Penn State

Big 12

Four undefeated Big 12 teams are left: Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and TCU. Any remaining so will be in the playoff. All four, with a loss, may be left out without help.

The Big 12 has no conference title game. Baylor and Oklahoma do not play themselves. The winner of their meeting may just have that one quality win. The sole one loss scenario may be Oklahoma State. Their loss came against Florida State, narrowly. The Cowboys would have a chance to make a statement late, taking down Kansas State, Oklahoma and Baylor on the road in November.

In Play: Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State

Pac 12

The Pac 12 looks talented, well coached and deep. An undefeated Oregon (or other) would be a lock. A one-loss champ would still be a strong contender.

Teams play a nine-game conference schedule. Most contenders (Oregon – MSU, Stanford – ND, USC – ND and Arizona State – ND) scheduled an additional biggie non-conference. A one-loss champ will have at least 3-4 quality wins. That should push them ahead of a one-loss champ from another non-SEC conference.

In Play: Oregon, Stanford, USC, Arizona State, UCLA
Possibly: Washington, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona

SEC

The SEC champion will be there come what may. Five SEC West teams are ranked in the AP Top 10. One could argue all seven should be in the Top 25. One-loss South Carolina or Georgia teams will have beaten the champion from that division and Auburn.

Will the SEC get that second team? The scenario where that happens is a one-loss SEC West non-champion. Let’s say Auburn goes 11-1. The loss comes at champion Alabama in the Iron Bowl. That Auburn team would have six wins over teams ranked in the Top 20. Do they get left out for a one-loss Big Ten or Big 12 team?

In Play: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss
Possibly: Florida, Mississippi State

Independents

Notre Dame is a lock at 12-0. Their schedule is strong enough, with Stanford, Arizona State and USC on the slate, that they could be in play at 11-1 with a close loss in Tallahassee.

BYU needs to go 12-0 and needs substantial carnage to happen in front of them. Their schedule isn’t weak, doing a tour of the strongest non big five programs and playing three major conference teams. There just isn’t a win that would particularly make their case. Like most analysts, we would expect the Cougars to drop one.

In Play: Notre Dame
Possibly: BYU

How Does This All Fit Together?

The first thing to recognize is that teams are going to lose football games and reach this playoff. In 2013, there would have been one undefeated team, five one-loss teams from the power conferences (in addition to Central Florida and Louisville, now in the ACC) and a strong two-loss conference champ in the mix. In 2012, there was one undefeated team (Notre Dame) and four one-loss teams. We have not had multiple regular season undefeateds since 2010. That should be the default expectation.

Here would be the rough pecking order presuming every conference champion had one-loss based on schedule strength. Maybe there would be some debate depending on the specific teams. We excluded the one-loss SEC runner up, which may be in play too. Also Notre Dame if they went 12-0.

SEC
Pac 12
Big 12
ACC
Big Ten – OUT

Going undefeated vaults a team up. So, let’s say FSU goes undefeated again.

ACC – Florida State
SEC
Pac 12
Big 12
Big Ten – OUT

The Big Ten, probably, won’t have an undefeated team. It is the weakest conference with one-loss. So, the conference would need multiple two-loss conference winners AND to fend off a challenge from the SEC runner up to sneak a team in. The one-loss Big 12 team would be vulnerable to exclusion by a second SEC team. The ACC is in great shape if FSU goes undefeated, quite vulnerable if the Noles don’t. The SEC and Pac 12 are virtual locks with one-loss winners.

Projections Right Now

As far as the teams go… Based on the schedule, the favorites are much as they were at the start of the season: FSU, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma/Baylor Winner.

An SEC winner or strong alternate could emerge from Auburn/Texas A&M/LSU, though their schedules are brutal.A one-loss South Carolina or Georgia would get in winning the title game. The Pac 12 group of Stanford/UCLA/USC/Arizona State with an Oregon win could produce a playoff team.

Notre Dame could be in, though going undefeated against their schedule seems a stretch. Ditto for Oklahoma State if they run the table.

Michigan State and Wisconsin need some serious help. BYU would need more.