Road to the College Football Playoff Week 4: Will Utah Be The End For Brady Hoke at Michigan?
By Ty Duffy
This weekend will not tell us much about the college football playoff. The only ranked matchup is an already eliminated Clemson visiting Florida State as two-touchdown underdogs. What the weekend may provide, though, is a more accurate temperature reading for coaches on the hot seat. Wins this weekend could cut the burners for a few of them. Bad losses could see things swiftly get real.
Brady Hoke must beat Utah. His Wolverines were blown out 31-0 by Notre Dame the second weekend. Last week, Michigan looked underwhelming against a putrid Miami of Ohio team. This malaise dates back to last season. The Wolverines have lost seven of their last 11. The wins have come against Appalachian State, the aforementioned Miami, Northwestern (with a miraculous field goal) and Indiana (pulling away late in a shootout). That stretch does not include near disasters last year against Akron and Connecticut.
Hoke is in year four. The roster is stocked with his highly-touted recruits. The quarterback is a fifth-year senior. The only reasonable conclusion for futility at this stage is Michigan is getting out-coached, pretty much every time it takes the field.
Poor on-field form has affected off-field support. Michigan’s student ticket sales, helped out by poor policies and a steep price tag, have declined by a third. Large swaths of the stadium are available for the Utah game. We were just offered the chance to buy tickets to Utah and Minnesota at an effective 57 percent discount. Those are two of the three best 2014 home games. At least Michigan hasn’t resorted to Groupon…yet.
Michigan winning would settle things down a bit. Fans could exhale. The team could go on its merry, 7 to 9-win way. Michigan would dose a smoldering existential crisis with lighter fluid. The Wolverines would have an effective 8-4 ceiling, with no definite wins remaining on the slate. The season could devolve rapidly. The only argument for keeping Hoke would be there being no one else to take the job.
Will Muschamp has a not-quite-as-imperative, but still major game on the road at Alabama. He saw the end flash before his eyes last week, as his Gators nearly ended their 27-game win streak over Kentucky. Few would fault him for losing outright in Tuscaloosa. But Florida has to show something and keep the score within reason. A bad loss could send this fragile team off the rails. With five Top 20 teams and a trip to Knoxville awaiting them, the Gators may struggle to get back on.
Then there’s Charlie Weis, who may have just one more game to prove himself. Kansas is 2-21 vs. FBS teams under Weis. The Jayhawks are fresh off a 41-3 loss to Duke. If they can’t beat Central Michigan, who just lost 40-3 to Syracuse, at home, that says about all one needs to know. Weis won’t last long anyway, if Kansas is willing to buy out his $5 million. But he could at least make it past September.
Picks
We went 4-2 against the spread last week, putting us at 10-6 for the season. Here are some picks for this week. We like the big five underdogs.
West Virginia (+7.5) vs. Oklahoma… Bob Stoops is playing a night game on the road. West Virginia has a penchant for getting into shootouts at home. The last two meetings between these teams were close. Dana Holgorsen and Clint Trickett face a rebuilt, largely untested Oklahoma secondary. We’ll take the points.
Iowa (+7) at Pittsburgh… Pittsburgh depends on the run. The Hawkeyes do one thing well: stop the run. They have allowed just 2.25 yards/carry this season and zero touchdowns. The Panthers’ passing game has been terrible. Not sure Iowa can score enough to win this outright. But they can definitely bog it down and lose by less than a touchdown.
Indiana (+13) at Missouri… Missouri has not distanced itself from teams on paper thus far. Indiana is underrated. The Hoosiers have the best offense in the Big Ten. Their Bowling Green loss was due to 143 penalty yards and their defense, which played well much of the game, collapsing late while having 113 plays run on them. Indiana keeps things closer than anticipated.
California (+8) at Arizona… Arizona has played no one, and not looked great while doing it. Their offense, with a freshman QB, has left points off the board. Their defense has struggled with the pass, against not very imposing teams. Cal looks improved in year two under Dykes. They can throw the ball. They Bears give Arizona a scare here coming off a bye.
Washington State (+23) vs. Oregon… The Cougars have not been outplayed. They have been self-immolating with turnovers and poor special teams play. Oregon has looked vulnerable through the air this season. That’s all Washington State does. Mike Leach will keep doing it deliberately long after Oregon decides it wants to stop to cover the spread.
[USA Today Sports]