Road to College Football Playoff: Do the Aggies Have The Necessary Swag To Win The SEC West?
By Ty Duffy
We’ll be forthright. This is not the best slate of games. The non-conference season is drifting to a finish. The conference season has not fired up en force. Zero of the 15 ranked teams in action play each other. Only two play true road games. There’s not too much to look for considering competition or #narrative. That tends to be the week where everything goes crazy, or the week the collective unconscious wills it to.
What we could see Saturday is a filtering. A few teams have drifted into the Top 10 by default, as teams ahead of them lost. While not facing real “tests” this weekend, they will face litmus ones against credible opponents.
Texas A&M sits at No. 6. They jumped on South Carolina the first week, then hit the cruise control against three putrid, non-Longhorn opponents. Do the Aggies have the requisite “Aggie Swag” to compete for the SEC West? Was it just a jittery off day for South Carolina? We should know more, after Texas A&M plays Arkansas on a neutral site. The Vegas win total over/under for A&M, it should be remembered, was (7) entering the season.
Baylor is ranked No.7. The Bears have been as overbearing as one would expect a Peak-Briles team to be, despite Bryce Petty’s back injury. But they have also played SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo, which is not exactly a jaunt through the SEC West. Iowa State is far from the best Big 12 opponent. But, they are the first credible one that can punch back.
One could also lump Notre Dame into that group at No. 8. The Irish have risen, without playing anyone. Rice is nothing to mention. Shutting out Michigan, while gratifying, proved little. Brian Kelly’s team could not pull away from pathetic Purdue until the end of the 3rd quarter. Syracuse is no Stanford or Florida State, but they could offer us a better glimpse of whether Notre Dame is ready to perform on that level.
Picks
We went 4-1 last weekend, bringing the season total to 14-7 ATS. Here are some games we like this week.
Arkansas (+8.5) vs. Texas A&M… Arkansas has played three decent opponents and is still averaging more than seven/carry. It’s safe to presume that run game is legit. The Aggies aren’t equipped to stop it. The Razorback defense will be accustomed to tempo, after facing Auburn and Texas Tech. This appears to be a shootout, so take the points.
N.C. State (+18.5) vs. Florida State… FSU is not bulletproof. This is the precise sort of game Jimbo Fisher would duff in the past. It’s a letdown spot after an emotional Clemson win, at night on the road. The Seminoles have lost four of their last six appearances at Carter-Finley. Ten of the last 13 games between these teams have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Jacob Brissett should do enough damage to cover against a thus far underwhelming Seminole pass defense.
Syracuse (+9.5) vs. Notre Dame… Syracuse is not as bad as the public thinks. Notre Dame is not as good. Looking at the raw box score, the Orange should have beaten Maryland by two touchdowns, instead of the other way around. Cuse is excellent against the run, meaning Everett Golson must continue to be mistake free. New York’s true college football team, Syracuse tends to play well within the tri-state area.
Iowa State (+21) vs. Baylor… Baylor faces its first live opponent. The Bears tend to be excellent against the spread, at home. But they are just 2-6 ATS as road favorites since 2011. Iowa State is battle-tested after tough games against Iowa and Kansas State. Night games in Ames can get a little weird.
Michigan (-13) vs. Minnesota… The one thing Michigan does pretty well is stop the run. Teams are averaging just 2.51 yards/attempt against them. Minnesota, for all intents and purposes, cannot pass the ball. Hoke has owned Minnesota, for whatever reason, with an average victory margin of 36 points. The Wolverines bounce back and pull away late enough to cover. Brady Hoke will sell this as a major feat, then lose to Rutgers.