The Big Lead

NBA Over/Unders: Great Expectations for Cavs, Negative Outlook for Lakers

By Ryan Glasspiegel

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If I were president and could dictate the sporting universe, I’d mandate that the NBA season start at Christmas and go into late July or early August. There’d be arenas with retractable roofs, and we’d avoid a bulk of that horrifying stretch in between basketball and football where there just isn’t much interesting stuff to talk about. This is not meant to be a tirade against baseball or those who like it, but the world would be better if hoops carried us deeper into the summer.

Anyways, that’s not the case, and the NBA season’s already on the horizon. Media Day was yesterday and Las Vegas Superbook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman released the first set of NBA over/under totals this afternoon. These are some of the numbers of note:

  • Cavaliers 58.5
  • Thunder 57.5
  • Spurs 56.5
  • Bulls 55.5
  • Clippers 55.5
  • Heat 43.5
  • Lakers 31.5

At first glance, those numbers seem a little bit low for Cleveland, provided that LeBron stays healthy. However, it’s worth noting that Miami struggled out of the gate in his first year there, starting just 9-8 before finishing up the regular season at 58-24. After winning 66 games in 2012-2013, the Heat won “just” 54 games last year, a result of stepping off the gas pedal a little bit and resting Dwyane Wade a lot. It’ll be interesting to see how quickly the Cavs gel, and whether they go all out to get the best seed they can this year.

The Bulls’ total seems a bit high. They added Pau Gasol, and, knock on wood, have a healthy Derrick Rose, but it might be asking a lot for the team to improve eight games over last year. Elsewhere, these numbers do not reflect a high degree of confidence in Kobe Bryant to come back from his Achilles injury and regain superstar stature, nor do they say good things about his supporting cast.

Cleveland’s having the highest win total does not necessarily mean they are the best team. For the umpteenth straight year, the West looks to be far better than the East. As Bovada sportsbook director Kevin Bradley told us last month, the Spurs and Thunder would be favored over the Cavs in a hypothetical NBA Finals matchup if they had home field advantage.