Road to College Football Playoff Week 5: Business Time in the SEC West
By Ty Duffy
October 2-4 came in third on our worst fall wedding weekends list. There’s no need for #narrative. There are just a number of awesome games, six between ranked opponents. A stellar time to be celebrating nuptials. With two undefeated SEC matchups on home soil, it may be the biggest, positive day in Mississippi history. We can already hear Wright Thompson narrating a 30 for 30 documentary.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State: The young Aggies displayed flaws, but also resilience in an overtime win vs. Arkansas. Mississippi State is fresh off the best win of the Dan Mullen era, after upsetting LSU on the road. There is an upper echelon SEC quarterback duel between Dak Prescott and Kenny Nicknames. If you’re into statistical nuggets, the Bulldogs are near the bottom of the nation, having allowed seven pass plays of longer than 40 yards. Texas A&M is one of the nation’s best offenses at hitting teams for long passing gains.
Alabama at Mississippi: GameDay visits the Grove for the first time in its history, perhaps the fruits of a comprehensive rebranding effort. (or finally being good enough at football) Both teams have played very good defense. Both have had productive, but turnover liable offenses. This should be the first true contest for either team. Alabama’s toughest opponent has been West Virginia or Florida. Ole Miss’ best has been…Boise State…maybe? The Rebels do have the home field advantage, though that hasn’t been much of an issue for Alabama under Saban.
Oklahoma at TCU: This was on our trap games list for 2014, which is 2-0 so far. But, TCU is ranked and a greater concern than Texas at this point. The Bob Stoops derping it up on the road mention is obligatory. So is TCU being, at the very least, a tough out with their defense. Oklahoma remains the Big 12 favorite, largely on reputation. The Horned Frogs will have to insert themselves into the discussion the next three weeks, with Baylor and Oklahoma State on tap after the Sooners.
Stanford at Notre Dame: The top-10 Irish face their first quality opponent. There are two key matchups here. Everett Golson has been making all the throws this season. He faces a Stanford pass defense allowing 3.7 yards/attempt. The other is Stanford’s offense vs. itself. The Cardinal have been to the red zone 19 times this season and been held to no points seven times. Stanford has a playoff caliber defense, if the offense can just get out of its own way.
LSU at Auburn: Both fashion themselves Tigers. Both are ranked in the Top 15. Both are still subject to jury deliberation. LSU has looked imperious against non-entities. But, against teams that can play, they were handled by Mississippi State and nearly were put away by a Wisconsin team that could not pass. Auburn had one dominant half against Arkansas, sparked by a defensive touchdown. They were very fortunate to slip away from Manhattan with a 20-14 win. Both could lock in and win the SEC West. Both could teeter and finish fifth (and still be ranked).
Nebraska at Michigan State: Folks will talk up Oregon losing, though the greater concern for Michigan State will be their statement wins (or lack thereof). Michigan imploded. We’ll see where Ohio State is at the end of the year. Nebraska could be the Spartans’ best win before the B1G title game, where they could again face Nebraska. We’re not sure quite what to make of the Cornhuskers yet. They are undefeated, but their best victim so far is a mediocre Miami. The unstoppable force clash between MSU’s run defense and Ameer Abdullah should decide this one.
Picks
We went 2-2-1 last week, moving us to 16-9-1 ATS on the season. This week’s theme: home is where the heart is.
TCU (+5) vs. Oklahoma: The Sooners are riding steam from last season’s Alabama win. They have not looked that impressive thus far. TCU has played some fantastic defense. They rank 1st in yards/play (3.08). They are 4th in opponent third down conversion percentage. Teams have driven into the red zone on the Horned Frogs and scored twice in three games. Low-scoring. Gary Patterson’s defense keeps it within a field goal.
Ole Miss (+6.5) vs. Alabama: Alabama has an explosive offense, which has basically been getting the ball to Amari Cooper. Ole Miss has played ridiculous pass defense. They lead the nation in passer rating against and they have nine interceptions to one touchdown conceded. This is a much bigger game for Ole Miss. Take the points in a power outage.
Auburn (-7.5) vs. LSU: LSU has not stopped the run well this season, conceding six yards/carry to Wisconsin and Mississippi State. They have a freshman quarterback heading into an SEC night game on the road, with Les Miles manning the puppet strings. War Damn Eagle, by double digits.
Texas (+14.5) vs. Baylor: Baylor does not trend well on the road. That trend will pay off at some point. The Bears have not been dominant running the ball in 2014. Texas’ pass defense has been one of the nation’s best. They get to the quarterback (16 sacks) and force turnovers. They are also quite decent against the run. After committing four turnovers against BYU, the Longhorns have had just one their past two games. Baylor wins, but by less than anticipated.
Northwestern (+7.5) vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin has had to abandon the pass without Joel Stave. They are 119th in attempts. Northwestern has been excellent against the run, holding every opponent except Northern Illinois under three yards/carry. They held Penn State to just 50 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. The Badgers have covered just one spread this season. Northwestern keeps it close enough at home.
[Getty]