College Football Playoff: How Things Look After Week Six
By Ty Duffy
Five of the top eight college football teams lost last Saturday. Projecting forward to the college football playoff, therefore, is timely. Here’s a rough power ranking at this time.
SEC Champ: Finding an undefeated SEC West team may be hard. Auburn, for example, still has road trips to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. But a one-loss team from the SEC West would be a lock. A one-loss Georgia, who beat Auburn and the SEC West Champ, would also be a lock.
Undefeated Florida State: This Seminole team is not invincible. A trip up at, say, Louisville on a Thursday night remains possible. But, the one real test left is Notre Dame. That game is in Tallahassee. Georgia Tech is technically a factor, though we’re not convinced of their staying power.
Undefeated Big 12 Champ: The winner of this weekend’s Baylor vs. TCU game can run the table. An undefeated Big 12 team would have a place.
One-loss Pac 12 Champ: Arizona is still undefeated. Though, it looks probable the champion of the Pac-12 will have at least one loss. The conference has a lot of depth, with no real elite power. Even getting a team with one-loss out of there may be pushing it.
Should any of the above falter, there are multiple possibilities for replacement. They are listed in no particular order.
One-loss B1G Champ: Michigan State is the favorite. Nebraska and Ohio State are still possibilities. MSU lost to Oregon, but by three scores. Ohio State has a much worse loss to Va Tech, but could get the benefit of the doubt with late improvement. All three will face the same argument – who did you beat? – and not have a very compelling answer.
One-Loss Notre Dame: How much will not playing in a conference hurt them? Let’s say the Irish go 11-1, with a close loss on the road to Florida State. They would have beaten three solid Pac 12 opponents, three not-so-solid B1G teams and three mediocre ACC teams. Would that be enough to get them the nod?
One-Loss SEC West Runnerup: This is not inconceivable. Let’s say Alabama runs the table, beats 11-0 Auburn by a narrow margin at home. Alabama goes on to win the SEC title and earn a place. That Auburn team could have gone 6-1 against Top 20 teams. It would be hard to argue the Tigers were not among the four best teams. Any committee discussion is likely to favor them.
The most interesting scenario, and the most probable, is the losses continue to pile up. The committee could have some dilemmas.
Let’s say Florida State loses to Notre Dame. FSU finishes 12-1, with one win over a Top 25 opponent. Being defending national champions may help the Seminoles. But, one could see the committee bypassing them for a team with a more demanding schedule.
Does a One-Loss Big 12 Champ get in? That team will not have a conference title game to add an extra quality win. They won’t play themselves. It may depend on how teams 3-5 in the conference fare. If Baylor loses to a 10-2 Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas State fall off, that is a problem. One one-loss lock may be Oklahoma State. They would have one narrow loss to FSU in the first game. They would also have beaten TCU, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma on the road.
Does a Two-Loss Conference Champ get in? The SEC and the Pac 12 are the two deepest conferences. Would a two-loss champion from there get in ahead of a one-loss champ from another conference? An 11-2 SEC team would have a number of quality wins. An 11-2 Oregon would have beaten a 12-1 Michigan State and played a tougher schedule. This debate could get very real come November.