Road to the CFB Playoff: The Biggest Day in Mississippi History Since Last Weekend
By Ty Duffy
The SEC West is going to do this every week. And, brace yourselves, half the teams are going to lose. We have the biggest positive day in Mississippi history round two, mere months after Mike Bianchi advocated the SEC dumping the two schools for UCF and USF. GameDay moves down the road to Starkville where No. 3 Mississippi State hosts No. 2 Auburn, meaning the Bulldogs are officially a big enough deal for ESPN to come bask in the glow of a CBS game. Dak Prescott could leap out in front of the Heisman race. Dan Mullen could make himself some money this weekend. So could Hugh Freeze.
Ole Miss and Bo Wallace, arrest free and sporting snapbacks, catch a plane to College Station to play No. 14 Texas A&M. Trips to LSU and Arkansas could get dicey. But, if the Rebels survive this trip unscathed, they have two ranked opponents left, Auburn and Mississippi State. Both games are in Oxford. Kevin Sumlin will hope his team’s skid stops here after last week’s blowout. Their next two conference games are at Alabama and at Auburn. Fade the magnolia schools if you wish. The public will be along with you for the ride.
TCU visits Baylor. It’s a battle of smallish private religious schools in Texas, located 75 miles apart. In 2014, that is a top 10 affair that may decide a conference and a spot in the playoff. Coaches make programs. TV revenue is an equalizer. You don’t have to be at Michigan fergodsakes to win anymore. The Horned Frogs outlasted Oklahoma at home last weekend. Baylor returns to Waco after three-straight road games, but have not stepped close to the fire yet. The best team the Bears have played so far is Texas, who only compete on one side of the ball. Bryce Petty continues to play on a broken back.
Oregon and UCLA meet for a scintillating Pac 12 showdown featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the country, and not much else. Oregon’s offensive line is seriously banged up, after losing three tackles. They are starting a true freshman at one spot and a walk-on at the other. Not coincidentally, the Ducks have allowed 12 sacks the past two games. UCLA’s offensive line is just bad. Utah sacked Brett Hundley 10 times last week. Beyond that, Oregon is down a notch from the Chip Kelly era. The Bruins have looked consistent…ly average.
Georgia vs. Missouri is also a ranked pairing. We’re not sure how to assess either team. The Bulldogs pulled away late from Clemson, still caught in a Cole Stoudt haze. Since then, the Dawgs lost to South Carolina, nearly lost to Tennessee and beat Troy and Vanderbilt. They should be without their trump card Todd Gurley, who appears to have capitalized on his identity. Missouri has regrouped after a rest. Considering their off-season departures, the Tigers have coped adequately, except for that part where they lost against Indiana at home, in football.
Elsewhere… Texas and Oklahoma will play, surrounded by deep fryers, if you’re into that sort of thing. Florida vs. LSU and Michigan vs. Penn State will kickoff about the same time and encompass much of the national spotlight, which will be both cruel and unusual.
Picks
After consecutive 4-1 weekends, our picks are 20-10-1 ATS on the season. Viva Mississippi.
Ole Miss (+2.5) at Texas A&M… Letdown spot for Ole Miss, right? Here’s another take. The Rebels have an elite defense. They are 2nd nationally in yards/attempt against. They held Alabama under four yards/carry last week. Texas A&M has a lousy defense. The Aggies’ offense is one dimensional. That one dimension did not look efficient against Arkansas or Mississippi State. A&M are a young team trying to rebound from a deflating blowout. Kevin Sumlin’s best win before the 12th man is…Vanderbilt in 2013? Bow ties and romanticized Solo cups y’all.
Mississippi State (+3) vs. Auburn… Mississippi State looked due for a letdown last weekend, then crushed Texas A&M. This is a home underdog in the SEC. Five of the past seven between these teams have been decided by one score. Auburn has not beaten Mississippi State by more than a field goal in Starkville since 2006. The Bulldogs have an excellent run defense. Kansas State is the one capable, put together team Auburn has played on the road. The Tigers did not impress.
North Carolina (+16.5) at Notre Dame… This was on our 2014 trap game list, which is now 3-0. It is the magnum-sized sandwich game. The Irish just endured a draining, physical game against Stanford. They can’t help but look ahead to fellow undefeated Florida State the following week. North Carolina’s defense is awful. Their offense is potent, has a dual threat quarterback and is unlike anything Notre Dame has faced. The Tar Heels keep it within two touchdowns.
Washington (+3.5) at California… Cal is coming off three-straight shootouts. The Huskies have had a week off to recover from Stanford and an extra week for Chris Petersen to prepare. Washington can put up points. They have three halves scoring 35 or more already this season. They should have no trouble moving the ball against a tired Bears defense that gave up 12 touchdown passes the past two weeks. All four of Cal’s FBS games have been decided by one score. Washington is a better team. We’ll take the points.
TCU (+8) at Baylor… We saw what Baylor looked like against a good defense last week against Texas. Their running game was not special. Bryce Petty was ineffective. With his injury, the Bears were reluctant to try to have him do things. TCU has a better defense than Texas. Gary Patterson controls that spread. Unlike the Longhorns, TCU has a quarterback and can score. Baylor has lost one home game since 2011, to Patterson’s TCU.
Michigan (-1) vs. Penn State… Michigan’s offense is bad. Penn State’s may be worse. The Nittany Lions can’t run the ball or protect Christian Hackenberg. They have been atrocious in the red zone. The Wolverines looked better last week against Rutgers and limited the turnovers. This game is at home, at night and means far more to them. Michigan has stopped trying to make Shane Morris happen. They score enough to win.