College Football 2014 Playoff: Michigan State Has The Easiest Remaining Schedule

The 2014 college football season is at the halfway point. The playoff contenders have coalesced, sort of. Here is a ranking of the remaining schedules for the Top 15 teams in the polls in order of ease. It’s possible some more Pac 12 teams will be factors. But, we’ll wait to see the aftermath after a few more weeks of cannibalism.

* Teams are ranked using Sports Reference’s SRS. Imperfect, but it provides a rough gauge.

Michigan State Spartans [5-1]

Home: Michigan (66), Ohio State (16), Rutgers (51)
Away: Indiana (80), Maryland (55), Penn State (53)
Title Best: Nebraska (25)

Michigan State’s playoff winning odds jumped. Much of that is their schedule. They have the easiest route to 12-1. Ohio State at home is their one game. We’re still not sure how strong the Buckeyes will be against a real opponent. The Spartans will be a heavy favorite over whoever reaches the title game. Their biggest concern should be the great debate and their lack of quality wins.

Ohio State Buckeyes [4-1]

Home: Rutgers (51), Illinois (94), Indiana (80), Michigan (66)
Away: Penn State (53), Michigan State (29), Minnesota (30)
Title Best: Nebraska (25)

The Buckeyes have a soft schedule and a bad loss. Michigan State is their one marquee game left. It’s possible Minnesota away gets tricky, but not probable. They should go 12-1 if they beat Michigan State. Their bigger problem is what that will mean. Is it more impressive than going 10-2 in the SEC West?

TCU Horned Frogs [4-1]

Home: Oklahoma State (44), Texas Tech (88), Kansas State (18), Iowa State (93)
Away: West Virginia (43), Kansas (104), Texas (57)

TCU has already played Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs don’t play themselves. They get Kansas State and Oklahoma State at home. The bigger concern for TCU, after blowing a 21-point lead, is they probably need Baylor to lose twice.

Florida State Seminoles [6-0]

Home: Notre Dame (8), Virginia (36), Boston College (34), Florida (32)
Away: Louisville (17), Miami (35)
Title Best Case: Virginia Tech (23)

FSU has Notre Dame at home this week. They also get a tougher game than most will anticipate on the road against a very good Louisville defense on a Thursday night. Beyond that, it’s a lot of mediocre. ACC teams playing FSU tough is still losing by multiple touchdowns.

Oregon Ducks [5-1]

Home: Washington (39), Stanford (22), Colorado (82)
Away: Cal (60), Utah (20), Oregon State (68)
Title Best: UCLA (14)

Almost every team in the Pac 12 is frisky. Almost all of them are flawed. Oregon will be heavy favorites in each game from here forward. Their toughest games are Stanford, Utah on the road and UCLA/USC/Arizona/Utah/ASU again in the title game. Whether they have that Chip Kelly-level precision to not get caught out again is the issue. Not the schedule difficulty.

Oklahoma Sooners [5-1]

Home: Kansas State (18), Baylor (9), Kansas (104), Oklahoma State (44)
Away: Iowa State (93), Texas Tech (88)

Bob Stoops does not have to face a good team on the road. Oklahoma gets Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State at home. If the Sooners are who we thought they were, they should finish up 11-1. But the jury is out on whether that’s the case. OU should have lost to Texas.

Baylor Bears [6-0]

Home: Kansas (104). Oklahoma State (46), Kansas State (18)
Away: West Virginia (43), Oklahoma (6)
Neutral: Texas Tech (88)

Baylor has a slightly harder route than Oklahoma. The game between the two teams is in Norman. The Bears also have their road trip to West Virginia, which Oklahoma already handled.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish [6-0]

Home: Northwestern (54), Louisville (17)
Away: Florida State (10), Navy (72), Arizona State (37), USC (15)

Road trips to Florida State and USC left. Louisville and Arizona State can give them a game. Northwestern is decent. Navy is a rivalry. It’s probable Notre Dame drops at least one game. But, the schedule strength could still be a viable candidate at 11-1.

Georgia Bulldogs [5-1]

Home: Auburn (1), Charleston Southern (–), Georgia Tech (28)
Away: Arkansas (26), Kentucky (44)
Neutral: Florida (32)
Title Best: Auburn (1)

That loss to South Carolina may end up being a killer. Georgia hosts Auburn. They would play the best team to emerge from the SEC West in the title game. The Dawgs likely need to win both to get in.

Kansas State Wildcats [4-1]

Home: Texas (57), Oklahoma State (44), Kansas (104)
Away: Oklahoma (6), TCU (7), West Virginia (43), Baylor (9)

If Kansas State wins out, they will reach the playoff. That probably won’t happen. They play the three best teams in the conference on the road. West Virginia away won’t be easy. Neither will Oklahoma State at home. Not cobbling together that win against Auburn gives them zero cushion.

Oklahoma State Cowboys [5-1]

Home: West Virginia (43), Texas (57)
Away: TCU (7), Kansas State (18), Baylor (9), Oklahoma (6)

The Cowboys are in the same boat as Kansas State. Win out, with a narrow loss to a marquee non-conference opponent, and they will surely get in. The trouble is they need to beat the Big 12’s four best teams on the road. The Cowboys looked good in the loss to Florida State. The best team they have beaten…Texas Tech?

Ole Miss Rebels [6-0]

Home: Tennessee (24), Auburn (1), Presbyterian (–), Mississippi State (3)
Away: LSU (21), Arkansas (26)
Title Best Case: Georgia (4)

Ole Miss gets Auburn and Mississippi State at home. They have already beaten Alabama and Texas A&M. They have the easiest path to the SEC West crown. That’s not to say there aren’t five regular season games left where they couldn’t come out flat and slip up.

Alabama Crimson Tide [5-1]

Home: Texas A&M (11), Mississippi State (3), Auburn (1)
Away: Tennessee (24), LSU (21)
Title Best: Georgia (4)

If we reduce the SEC West to a mini league with the top four, Alabama has two regular season games left against Mississippi State and Auburn. Both are in Tuscaloosa. The division is still winnable for Alabama, but don’t you dare put expectations on them.

Mississippi State Bulldogs [6-0]

Home: Arkansas (26), UT Martin (–), Vanderbilt (96)
Away: Kentucky (44), Alabama (5), Ole Miss (2)
Title Best: Georgia (4)

Mississippi State has looked liked the SEC West’s best, most complete team thus far. Congrats. They still have to beat Alabama and win the Egg Bowl on the road, before winning the SEC title game.

Auburn Tigers [5-1]

Home: South Carolina (45), Texas A&M (11), Samford (–)
Away: Ole Miss (2), Georgia (4), Alabama (5)
Title Best: Georgia (4)

Auburn has perhaps the toughest schedule in the country. They are hitting the back end of it. They would need four more Top 10 wins, away from Jordan Hare, to win the SEC at 12-1. That would be a feat. Not sure they get there. The question may be whether them going 10-2 is more impressive than other teams going 11-1 or 12-1.