The Big Lead's Weekly Fantasy Lineup Week 8: Russell Wilson Is Not Expensive Enough

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We’ll be putting our selections in on a weekly basis, and also be writing a weekly analysis/picks article using the salary cap figures and identifying the strategy behind the selections. For salary cap games, the salary cap is $50,000 for the selection of 9 positions: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.

After a very good week two weeks ago, last week’s official entry did not do as well, finishing in the bottom half thanks to disappointing efforts from Justin Forsett and Ben Tate at running back. One thing to keep in mind if you are doing fantasy–diversify around a core set of players. I highlighted Russell Wilson as a value–though Andrew Luck was the first choice–in last week’s post and used him in some diversification entries (combined with buying up Jordy Nelson with the savings), and he ended up being the top scoring quarterback for the week. That allowed me to come out on top, net, for the week, despite having a disappointing week. (and yes, I am putting my own money up each week, because if I’m giving (advice), I need to be living it).

Speaking of which . . .

Quarterbacks: The official choice this week is Russell Wilson ($6900). He is among the top five in scoring all year, but while the other top QBs come with a high price tag, he’s still coming on the cheap. In addition to apparently not being “black enough”, he’s also not expensive enough in this fantasy contest.

As for other potential plays, you can’t go wrong with the top guys, and among those I would go with Aaron Rodgers ($8,700) on the road at the Saints. As for potential cheap value plays if you like to spend most of your cap on other positions, I would go with Kyle Orton ($5,000) at the Jets.

This week, we’ll split the difference between those options and go with a guy who is just coming at too good a value.

Running Backs: This week, the choices are Andre Ellington ($6,900) and Jerick McKinnon ($5,300). It’s a PPR format, and Ellington continues to emerge as a threat for more touches each week and should be a top 10 back going forward. McKinnon, meanwhile, finally got the vast majority of carries in Minnesota last week over Asiata, and this week draws a defense that is giving up the third most points to RB. At a price that puts him as only the 21st most expensive, he has upside to post a top 12 with the matchup.

Other choices considered–at the top end, either Arian Foster ($7500) against Tennessee, or Shane Vereen ($6,600) coming off a big game in the first one after Ridley’s season-ending injury seem like good values.

If you want a flex or lower end option, I like Joique Bell at $4700 and Tre Mason at $4900 as options if you want to go with someone besides McKinnon. In Bell’s case, the matchup against the Falcons is what you want, and it’s just the uncertainty of touches that is limiting it from being a stronger play. Mason looks to be taking the reins in St. Louis and could be a big play against Kansas City.

Wide Receivers/Flex: We’ll throw a flex in at WR as well this week. After a week when we struggled at WR, we are going chalk. Jordy Nelson ($7900) is the most expensive WR, but he’s worth it. We’ll also add in Andrew Luck’s main target T.Y. Hilton ($6900) going against Pittsburgh.

Finally, we search for value with our flex. Doug Baldwin ($5500) is far down the list in terms of price but should provide top 25 numbers this week.

Other options considered were Dez Bryant ($7600) going against Washington, Julian Edelman ($6600) against Chicago, and for value plays, Terrance Williams ($5000), Dwayne Bowe ($5200), and Greg Jennings ($4200).

Tight End: Owen Daniels ($5,700) is the choice based on the matchup with Cincinnati. Daniels has been an undervalued and solid option anyway after the Dennis Pitta injury, but add in that the Bengals are last in points allowed to tight ends (and Baltimore’s combined for 14 catches; 10 by Pitta and 4 by Daniels in the first game) and we’ll take a chance here. [UPDATE: Daniels underwent a procedure on his knee and has been ruled out for Sunday. You can go with Travis Kelce ($5600) for basically the same price]

Other choices, at various levels, would be Julius Thomas ($7100), Greg Olsen ($6000), and Jordan Reed ($4300).

OVERALL PICKS

Here’s the official entry (and there will be variations using some of those other names as well, with defenses and kickers fluctuating based on total spend)