Road to the College Football: Will Ole Miss Survive A Road Trip to LSU?
By Ty Duffy
This is one of those weekends where it does not look like much will happen. So, stock up on basics and protective gear, gather your loved ones and retreat to the woods?
South Carolina visiting Auburn appears less tasty than anticipated. USC travels to Rice Eccles for a Top 20 showdown with the Utah Utes that will finish after midnight on the East Coast. The lead SEC CBS game will be played in Lexington. Barring a substantial upset, LSU hosting Ole Miss is the one game that may impact the playoff race. Though, of course, the committee will be breaking down coaches’ film of Illinois-Minnesota just in case.
LSU’s’ true nature remains a mystery. The Tigers underwhelmed against Mississippi State and Auburn, two of the nation’s top five. While we’re on the subject, LSU did not impress in wins against Wisconsin and Florida either. But, they dominated a quite decent Kentucky team 41-3 at home last week. A one-week fluke or a young team figuring it out?
Ole Miss has been rolling with great defense and Bo Wallace not derping it up. The Rebels came from behind for a massive win against Alabama. But, Ole Miss has not faced that hellacious a schedule otherwise. Texas A&M was overrated. Their next best win is… Boise State in the opener? Hugh Freeze’s team could be a candidate for a No. 1 seed in the playoff. But, finishing (a still respectable) 9-3 is not outside the crystal ball.
Brady Hoke’s Last Stand
Michigan will not fire Brady Hoke before the end of the season. But, a loss to Michigan State would all but cement his departure. The Wolverines have won one of their past 11 power five games in regulation, 18-13 over Penn State. They travel to East Lansing as 17-point underdogs (many think that is too flattering). Devin Gardner was asked if Michigan was “capable” of spoiling Michigan State’s season. That’s where things have fallen.
Does Michigan have a chance? Well, no. The Wolverines can’t handle Michigan State’s defensive front. They can’t get pressure against Michigan State’s offensive line, which is having a stellar season. Hoke stressed returning to Michigan’s “identity,” which, under him, has been running straight into a brick wall repeatedly until their defense gives out. Michigan did come out firing against Ohio State last season. But that game was at home, against a team with exploitable flaws.
Playing Michigan State highlights all of Michigan’s major deficiencies. Where the Spartans excel, the Wolverines flounder. Michigan gets outcoached during games. Hoke’s staff has developed none of the talent that has arrived on campus. They preach “toughness” and “doing the little things to win.” They fail to show it week after week.
Lord Cardigan is waiting for orders.
Picks
The correction came last week. We went 2-6 ATS, dropping the season record ATS to 28-16-1. Here’s our bid to bounce back.
LSU (+3.5) vs. Ole Miss… When oddsmakers tell you something, listen. Ole Miss may have the nation’s best pass defense. LSU doesn’t pass. The Tigers have not contained the run against mobile quarterbacks. Ole Miss has an immobile one. Betting on the Rebels is betting on an erratic Bo Wallace at night on the road, against a Top 10 pass defense. LSU can keep this game slow and ugly. Take the points in a power outage.
Tennessee (+17.5) vs. Alabama… Alabama’s offense is predicated on big passing plays. Tennessee is near the top of the SEC table in pass defense. The two teams that have held the Tide below eight yards/pass shut down their offense entirely. Blake Sims has had a number of interceptions dropped in recent weeks. Tennessee has been spunky and competitive under Butch Jones, despite being out manned. This rivalry game means much more to them, in a slight look ahead spot for Nick Saban’s team.
Syracuse (+14.5) at Clemson… Clemson does not run the ball well. With Cole Stoudt starting, they don’t pass the ball well either. If Syracuse gets 7, can Clemson score 24 to cover? The Orange record and statistical tallies are skewed by playing Notre Dame, Louisville and Florida State in successive weeks. This is not that bad a team. They can move the ball on offense, especially through the air. Barring another verbal gaffe, Scott Shafer escapes from this one with his dignity.
Washington State (+2.5) vs. Arizona… The Cougars are 1-3 in one-score games. The Wildcats are 4-1. That can be as much fortune as ability. This should be a shootout, with neither team having much of a defense. Washington State is at home, getting points and has a better, more experienced quarterback. Boarding the Pirate Ship, for this week.
UAB (+27) at Arkansas… This is a textbook sandwich game. Arkansas is coming off battles against Alabama and Georgia. They face Mississippi State on the road the following week. UAB is turning things around under Bill Clark. The Blazers are 4-3 so far. They create big plays in the passing game (4th nationally in passes longer than 40 yards). The exact sort of big plays Arkansas has allowed all season. Will Arkansas put in four solid quarters of defense to slam the back door shut?
[USA Today Sports]