Coaching Search: How Likely Are Top 25 College Football Coaches To Leave?
By Ty Duffy
College football head coaching positions will be available this winter. With television revenue distributed evenly within conferences, there may not be that many head coaches to fill them. It’s a bit premature. We’re not even sure who will be making the hire at Michigan yet. But, here’s a look at the current Top 25, with the probability of them leaving on a scale from 1-5. Keep an eye on Dan Mullen and Rich Rodriguez.
1. Dan Mullen [Mississippi State – 4.0] Mullen has ties, albeit complicated ones, with Florida. He should be among Michigan’s top targets. Either could offer him more money over a longer term than the Bulldogs. Mullen will be proud of what he has built at Mississippi State but also cognizant of just how difficult it is to win there yearly. It is an SEC job, but perhaps the 12th best one. His stock won’t get higher. Whatever happens, Mullen will be making bank.
2. Jimbo Fisher [Florida State – 1.5] Florida State recruits elite talent. They don’t face much in the way of elite competition. Jimbo’s contract alleviates any concern about salary and has a rather steep buyout. Florida and Michigan don’t look probable. The only conceivable scenario this winter is LSU contacting him if Miles leaves for Michigan.
3. Gus Malzahn [Auburn – 0.5] Malzahn received a huge extension last year, amidst a BCS title game run and Texas speculation. If there is a job he would leave Auburn for, it is not in college and probably not this early in his tenure.
4. Hugh Freeze [Ole Miss – 2.0] Freeze has gotten a raise and extension the past two off-seasons. He’s doubtless in line for another one this winter. History is against him at Ole Miss, though he has made a name thwarting it. He’s from Mississippi. Freeze’s religious fervor likely precludes him from a number of jobs outside the South. Schools may contact, but we’d bet he stays (and at the rate he’s going wins).
5. Mark Helfrich [Oregon – 0.5] Helfrich has an 18-3 record since assuming control Chip Kelly. But, the jury remains out on him. There are appear to be a few brown spots on his banana. Teams will want to see how he does without Marcus Mariota next year before he enters discussions.
6. Nick Saban [Alabama – 0.5] Never say never. But, the one plausible move for him in college did not pan out last winter. His reputation in the NFL is much worse than his college one. Alabama is, in all likelihood, the last stop.
7. Gary Patterson [TCU – 1.0] Patterson has TCU rolling again. He’s only 54. But, a number of plausible Gary Patterson destinations have come available in recent years. Patterson has neither left, nor even been in the final stages of the search. He seems well nested.
8. Mark Dantonio [Michigan State – 0.5] Dantonio has built a national power. He’s paid a competitive wage. Izzo assumes most campus rockstar duties. He’s 58. He has a history of health troubles. This should be his last stop. He’s a couple years past where Ohio State would have been plausible.
9. Bill Snyder [Kansas State – 0.0] Nope. Not leaving.
10. Brian Kelly [Notre Dame – 2.0] Kelly is cementing his reputation as a top-tier coach. Many schools would love him. The question would be what school can pry someone from Notre Dame? Probable none. However, the NFL came calling before and will come calling again. Is Kelly more motivated by his legacy or by testing his skill at the highest level?
11. Mark Richt [Georgia – 0.5] Georgia fans have their quibbles with him. But, what school bigger than Georgia would be interested? That’s presuming he would want to go.
12. Rich Rodriguez [Arizona – 3.5] Arizona has been a great situation for Rich Rod and resurrected his career. No one knows the pitfall risk of leaving a good situation for a high profile job better than him. Michigan is, obviously, off the table. But, running his offense with the speed he could recruit at Florida would have to be tempting though…
13. Art Briles [Baylor – 1.0] Baylor signed Briles through 2023 at more than $4 million per year. He’d do well at many schools. But, it’s hard to see him leaving the state of Texas.
14. Todd Graham [Arizona State – 3.5] Graham has a good thing going at Arizona State. But, given his track record, he’s a flight risk while a better job remains available. His agent hanging up if Florida or Michigan inquires?
15. Bo Pelini [Nebraska – 1.0] Bo has grown on Nebraska fans. Nebraska appears to have grown on Bo. It’s not clear how much of past rumblings about him leaving were contract related. There are better jobs than Nebraska. But his four-loss consistency and other issues may preclude him from those jobs. Plausible B-candidate if Miles leaves LSU.
16. Urban Meyer [Ohio State – 0.5] One could see Meyer leaving coaching if his health issues flare up. He’s not leaving Ohio State for another coaching job.
17. Kyle Whittingham [Utah – 0.5] Whittingham has been at Utah since 1994. He has the Utes back winning, after having some fortune with quarterback health. Utah is a Pac 12 job now. It’s hard to see him leaving.
18. Bob Stoops [Oklahoma – 2.0] Stoops is in his 16th year at Oklahoma. After a BCS title, eight Big 12 titles and nine Top 10 finishes, there’s not much left for him to do. He’s still young enough for a new challenge at 54 and this may be his last opportunity. Florida could come after him. So could Michigan. So could the NFL.
19. Les Miles [LSU – 2.0] Reports had Les Miles bound for Ann Arbor in 2007 and 2010. He will be among the rumored candidates to return home in 2014 as well. It’s hard to see him working with Dave Brandon. But, he has ties to the other probable candidates for the AD job. Age is only a number. But the window for this move may have passed.
20. Dana Holgorsen [West Virginia – 1.5] Holgo is off the hot seat, after an excellent 2014 start at West Virginia. Whether he has done enough to get in the “here are the keys to my major program” discussion is another question. He will be one to watch in a couple years should he sustain success.
21. Dabo Swinney [Clemson – 1.0] Dabo recruits well. He has hired, with substantial funding, very good assistants. He has been a solid fit at Clemson. Maybe he’d leave. But, there aren’t that many jobs better than Clemson. Also, if you are Florida and need a substantial rebuild, do you hire a guy who has never been a coordinator?
23. Ruffin McNeil [East Carolina – 3.0] McNeil won 10 games at East Carolina last year. This year, they are 6-1 after moving up a conference. He could be in play for a power five job, but he’s 56 and not on the Michigan/Florida level. A lot of his value is dependent on whether OC Lincoln Riley will join him.
24. David Cutcliffe [Duke – 1.5] Cutcliffe finished in the football Top 25 at Duke, which is no small feat. He has the Blue Devils heading back to bowl play in 2014. Strong track record, but probably not strong enough to entice a major program in his 60s.
25. Bobby Petrino [Louisville – 2.5] Now, he’s chastened by necessity. But For Bobby Petrino’s entire career, the answer to “would he…” questions is “yes,” if it’s in his self-interest. Very few coaches come with a virtual “he will win” guarantee. So, would he burn Louisville if say Florida came sniffing around? What about Mississippi State if Mullen goes?
A Few Names Outside The Top 25
David Shaw [Stanford – 1.5] Palo Alto is a nice, low key place for a football coach to live. Stanford is Shaw’s alma-mater. His name keeps coming up in coaching searches. A school would have to tread uphill to get him. Is Shaw an elite coach or has he done a nice job keeping Jim Harbaugh’s ship afloat? If he leaves it is probably for the NFL.
Jim McElwain [Colorado State – 2.0] Nick Saban’s former offensive coordinator is off to a 7-1 start in his third season with the Rams, with two power five wins. He’s someone bigger programs would want to speak to. He’s also someone who would scare them off this offseason with a $7.5 million buyout.
Mark Stoops [Kentucky – 3.0] Stoops is off to a 5-3 start his second season at Kentucky. He’s a monster recruiter. He also has a very good track record as a defensive coordinator. Kentucky is among the bottom of the barrel SEC football jobs. He’s not a Michigan man, but he did grow up in Ohio and play at Iowa.
[USA Today Sports]