Monday Read Option: Chiefs Come Up Big, Marrone Makes the Right Call, and Steelers Flip Again

If you grew up in the 80’s watching ESPN, with Super Bowl highlight shows mixed in with Australian Rules Football and bowling in the late afternoon after school, you probably saw that play a thousand times set to the dramatic slow motion music.

I thought of that play as Jamaal Charles turned the key game in Buffalo with a fourth down pitch play that brought Kansas City back into the game. To that point, Buffalo had largely dominated the game, as the Buffalo defensive front had gotten to Alex Smith repeatedly.

Coaches, as we know, can be ridiculously conservative on fourth down. One of the reasons, among many, is that they can be huge swings. “Delay the decisive moment” seems to be the key ethos. But on a day when the line was getting dominated for large stretches, Andy Reid didn’t just go with the up the middle play to try to scratch for a yard. He used it as an opportunity to get his best player in the space that he needed, as the defense overplayed the middle.

That play still left the Chiefs trailing. Football is a game, where over the course of 1,000 plays, teams tend to separate themselves somewhat. Over the course of 50, though, a few key moments–like that fourth down conversion–can swing a game. Buffalo had two other fumbles that were the key to this particular result. Before the Charles’ touchdown, Bryce Brown had an opportunity to extend a lead and make it 17-3.

After the touchdown by Charles made it 13-10, it was another fumble that swung the game, this time on special teams, as Leodis McKelvin fumbled it and allowed Kansas City to have the short field and launch from a 13-3 deficit to an improbable 17-13 lead in just a few minutes.

It was tough luck for Buffalo, a franchise that hasn’t made a playoff appearance since the Music City Miracle. The AFC is loaded up top, and that one could prove decisive in tiebreakers at the end of the year.

MARRONE’S DECISION OF GOING FOR THE LEAD VERSUS GETTING WITHIN ONE

Separately, we’ll talk about the decision near the end of the game. Buffalo faced a 4th and 10 at the Kansas City 15 with 2:31 left, down 17-13. Marrone went for the conversion, rather than kicking the field goal to pull within 1 point. Buffalo had all three timeouts and the two minute warning remaining, so a defensive “3 and out” would get them the ball back around the two minute warning (depending on how timeouts were used), and needing to drive the field for another field goal.

ESPN Stats & Info says it was the wrong decision. I’m not sure where they are getting their info, because the numbers they provide do not add up to me. There are a couple of points of contention here. (1) It assumes that any conversion would put the Bills at the 5, meaning that if they converted, they would barely convert. Of course, in reality, there is a pretty good chance that IF you convert there, you also score the go-ahead touchdown on that play. At any rate, the average conversion would put you past the 5, and in that part of the field, every yard increases the chance of scoring.

(2) I’m not sure where they are getting the “After kicking a field goal, the Bills’ expected win probability would be 38.1 percent.” Does that assume a make? And in any event, a team trailing and without the ball would not have that high of a chance. The WP calculator at Advanced Football Analytics puts it at 11% for the team without the ball, with the opponent up 1 at their own 25 before the two minute warning. Even if that is underselling because the Bills have all three timeouts, I’m not sure where 38% is coming from.

I could see 38% being the number IF the Bills get the ball back down 1 after an immediate stop. That’s in fact what I get in the WP calculator.

For what it’s worth, I wrote about when the cutoff should be that coaches stop playing for the field goal when it would still leave them trailing in a one-score game. (A: halfway through the fourth quarter). Also, for what it’s worth, using the game play finder at Pro Football Reference, 22 times since 1998 a coach has opted to attempt a field goal in the final four minutes of a game, when a touchdown could tie or give them the lead, but a made field goal would leave them down.

Those teams went 0-22.

But I’m sure 38% is reasonable. I have the opposite, that going for the attempt gives Buffalo a 36% chance at a win, but going for the field goal to still trail gives them a 24% chance.

ARIZONA WILL KEEP ON GOING WITHOUT CARSON PALMER

The Arizona Cardinals maintained their league leading record at 8-1 yesterday, but lost Carson Palmer in the process to a season-ending knee injury.

“I’m not going to lie, I cried like a baby last night,” Palmer said Monday.

I for one am rooting for the Cardinals, who will now turn (back) to Drew Stanton. This is a well-coached team that maximizes what they have. The metrics show that this team isn’t as dominant as other top teams (Football Perspective has them as the lowest “Pythagenpat” percentage of any 8-1 or 9-0 team since 1990).

Yesterday was a prime example, as they were trailing St. Louis for much of the game. Many teams might have folded when the starter went down like that. Arizona responded with a bomb from Drew Stanton to rookie John Brown, and then let the Rams beat themselves by throwing tipped balls that allowed for big defensive plays to seal it.

Stanton will have the environment around him to succeed, a great receiving group with the emergence of Brown, and a dynamic running back in Andre Ellington, to go with a defense that makes things easier.

Arizona hasn’t played a top quarterback since the only loss in Denver–the last five wins have come against teams with Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden, and Austin Davis at quarterback. They can absolutely frustrate and blitz the heck out of any team that doesn’t have a mature, elite quarterback. Next week, it’s a big game against Detroit, which is a phrase that hasn’t been used in my lifetime. The last time the Cardinals (then in St. Louis) and Detroit played a game in a season when both finished with a winning record, the year was 1970.

Oh, and two games still remain against Seattle. Those will be must-see TV.

STEELERS FLIP AGAIN, PLAY TO LEVEL OF COMPETITION

Is there any team this year that has been as up-and-down as Pittsburgh, looking capable of beating anyone on a given week, and losing to just about anyone a short time later?

I think this end of game flip sums it up nicely.

Pittsburgh has split with Cleveland and Baltimore this year, looking downright awful in the two losses, dominating Baltimore in the win at home, and managing to give us a preview of what was to come in week 1 against Cleveland, where they 27-3 halftime lead only to survive while getting outscored by 21 in the second half.

Against the rest of the schedule, they were dominant against the best team they faced (Indianapolis), won on the road at the defending NFC South champ (Carolina), and roared back to a victory over Houston.

Against the three worst teams they have played in Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and now the New York Jets, Pittsburgh is 1-2 and has been outscored 54 to 56.

As a result, Pittsburgh has a truly weird split. If we exclude the results against them, the teams that Pittsburgh has beat have a 24-23-1 record. The teams they have lost to are 11-21 against the rest of the league.

The good news, I suppose, is that all the teams in the playoffs will have winning records. The bad news is that you generally have to beat teams that are worse than you to get there. Rex Ryan has some thoughts on Pittsburgh in the playoffs.

[All the magical GIFs by Michael Shamburger]