Pigskin Pigsplosion NFL Week 11 Preview: Chicago Bears Should Give Up Less Than 50 against Vikings

Chicago fans, don’t worry about how awful the Bears have been. Why? Because we separately put our brains together and decided that the Bears were a good pick, despite giving up approximately 1,000 points in the last month and having worse chemistry than Badger, because they are favored. Yeah, I’m sure this will work out great. Your latest installment of the Pigsplosion!

Last Week

Ryan: 7-6
Stephen: 8-5
Jason: 5-8

Season

Ryan: 78-68-1
Stephen: 74-72-1
Jason: 71-75-1

Buffalo @ Miami (-6)

Jason: Buffalo and Miami in a real game on Thursday! I feel kind of sorry for Buffalo fans after last week. This team has a defense good enough to go to the playoffs. Last week’s loss to Kansas City puts them in trouble, though, and they need this one to have the tiebreaker and get back on track. I don’t think it happens. Dolphins.

Stephen: No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. I have no idea what that means, but I’ve just been informed that this could be a good game?

BILLS

Ryan: The feeling that this line is too high and the universal truth that Thursday night games are hopeless blowouts are tearing each other apart. I don’t know what to do! Bills.

Houston @ Cleveland (-3)

Ryan: If you haven’t yet done so, Lisk and I would really appreciate if you went back and read our interview with Wade Phillips that ran yesterday. Here’s a snippet about JJ Watt:

Can’t bring myself to roll with Ryan Mallett on the road. Browns.

Jason: This is a sneaky swing game in the AFC. Houston is really on the outside looking in, and this is almost a must-win. They aren’t catching the Colts, but they do get three games against the AFC North, including this one on the road, to swing the wildcard race. For what it’s worth, despite all the praise being heaped on the Browns, and the Texans being 4-5 in the AFC South, Houston has the *slightly* better simple rating system rating (point difference + schedule strength). Texans.

Stephen: I need a nap so I’m going to outsource some or most of my picks this week. BROWNS

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

Jason: Based on my in-depth research, teams that lose consecutive games while giving up 50+ points are 1-0 against the spread the following week. (I’m pretty sure the Rochester Jeffersons were +10 against the Toledo Maroons). Bears.

Stephen: From 1HappySt: “They’re coming off back to back games giving up 50 or more points, the first time a professional football team has done that since the 1872 Footballing Prospecters of the Appalachian League (may or may not be accurate). They’ve also broken their own team record in back to back weeks for most points given up in a half. Having said that, I fully expect them to win on Sunday because the NFL makes no sense and that’s how these things go.” Go? Go BEARS

Ryan: Bears, by the logic that the spread HAS to overreacted to their last two weeks.

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-5.5)

Ryan: Stephen will be quick to note that this is the part of the column every week where I embolden the Packers’ opponent and act scared of a letdown. That’s only partially true — there was awhile there that I was riding the R-E-L-A-X wave. But, the Packers have been really bad at games I’ve gone to since I saw them win the Super Bowl, and the Sanchize redemption narrative has to last at least another week, right? Eagles.

Jason: Aaron Rodgers? Mark Sanchez? I’ll go with the guy with more playoff QB winz, thank you much. Packers.

Stephen: Why do the Green Bay Packers get so nervous when they play in front of Ryan Glasspiegel? My column: PACKERS

Seattle @ Kansas City (-1.5)

Ryan: This is by far the best early game on Sunday. Seattle’s point spreads are finally starting to reflect what they’ve looked like this year. This is one of those (grating Cris Collinsworth voice) if-you-had-told-me-before-the-season lines that really hammers home how quickly a team’s regression can happen in this league.

Unfortunately, after the Seahawks started out 3-3, they had the luxury of finding their bearings against the crappy Panthers, Raiders, and Giants, whose combined record is now 6-22. Instead of continuing their death spiral, they’ve been emboldened to say things like there were never any problems and the media was just trying to bring them down. I’d love to be proven wrong on this, but think Seattle wins this one.

Jason: I’m going complete opposite here. Love, love, love the Chiefs in this spot at Arrowhead, in a battle between the two fan bases that fight over who is the loudest. They’ve been the better team since the week 1 games that cemented Seattle as the reigning champs in destroying Green Bay, and where Kansas City inexplicably lost at home, by a lot, to the Titans. Since that week 1 debacle, Kansas City’s only two losses were at Denver (where they covered) and at San Francisco (where they covered). Chiefs.

Stephen: If there’s one thing I love, it’s fans who think they are better at being fans than other fans. You’re yelling and clapping. That’s what small children do. Get [redacted]. CHIEFS

Atlanta @ Carolina (-1.5)

Jason: The winner of this game could be tied for first by the end of the day. The loser will have 7 losses with six weeks to go. This also seems like the appropriate spot to talk about my upcoming quick family trip to Branson. I’m not sure why everyone here at the site is giving me such grief. Panthers.

Stephen: Stolen without attribution – “The winner of this game will have a chance at sharing first place with the Saints with a record of 4-6.  So they’ve go that going for them.  Which is nice.” Why did I steal that one? It stinks. PANTHERS

Ryan: Will either of Mike Smith or Ron Rivera keep their jobs after this season? Falcons.

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (-7)

Stephen: “Andy Dalton is a pumpkin.” – Nick P /Saints.

Ryan: The moment I saw this tweet last week, I knew the 49ers were going to beat the Saints:

Time to get going on a new streak. Saints.

Jason: Andy Dalton will finish with positive fantasy points this week. Maybe. Saints.

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7)

Ryan: This isn’t an endorsement of the Bucs or anything — they’re putrid — but Washington shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over anyone.

Jason: I agree, the Bucs are putrid. Washington.

Stephen: Yeah! Suck it bad teams! You’re the worst. WASHINGTONS

Denver (-9.5) @ St. Louis

Jason: Rams are going back to Shaun Hill, just three weeks after Brett Favre said that Austin Davis could be the next Kurt Warner. History is littered with the “next Kurt Warner” predictions, and bad text messages from Brett Favre. Broncos.

Stephen: Every time I see the name Shaun Hill, I think it’s Shaun King. I don’t know if that makes a difference against Denver. Thoughts, Happy? “the quarterback matchup in this game is Peyton Manning versus Shaun Hill. I haven’t seen a mismatch this huge since Aaron Rodgers went up against Jay Cutler.” BRONCOS

Ryan: This is as good a time as any to admit that I’ve been saving various takes in a Google Doc for months so I can ironically retweet them. Can’t wait to bust these ones out:

Benching Austin Davis, who seemed to be playing well enough and on a reasonable trajectory to become a serviceable starting quarterback, seemed like a panic move. Broncos.

San Francisco (-4) @ NY Giants

Stephen: From Happy – “The 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS against the Giants in their last 10 head to head. But if I cared about stuff like that, I’d be writing this from Vegas instead of upstate New York. Vegas, where the weather is warm and the women are scantily clad and plentiful. Vegas says Giants, but New York… New York, where it’s 18 degrees and the women are covered in parkas, says Niners.” 49ERS

Ryan: This seems like the easiest pick of the season, which means I’ll almost definitely get it wrong. 49ers.

Jason: Eli Manning owns the 49ers, ergo Giants win on a fumbled punt. Giants.

Oakland @ San Diego (-10)

Stephen: So Branden Oliver is just a nobody again? Man, football sure is weird. It’s like he’s back at Buffalo. RAIDERS?

Ryan: Who? Chargers.

Jason: We’ll always have weeks 6-10 of the Fantasy Football season. /stares wistfully out the window of the train while wearing Humphrey Bogart’s fedora. Raiders.

Detroit @ Arizona (-2)

Jason: Exciting times in Arizona and Detroit. Easily the best Cardinals-Lions game of my lifetime. Arizona will have to deal with Drew Stanton returning at quarterback. A lifetime completion percentage of 53.6% passer, he’s completed just under 50% this year in three starts, plus coming in last game for Palmer. Tough call, but I’m going Lions.

Stephen: From Hef for his other favorite team – “Go ahead and bet against the Cards.  Again.  I dare you.  Do you enjoy losing money?  Because that’s what’s going to happen if you keep betting against them.  You think this team isn’t confident with Drew Stanton under center?  They’ve already played 3 games without Carson Palmer and they went 2-1 beating the Giants (in NY) and the Niners (in AZ).  They were in the game at Denver (down 24-20 in the 4th) when the Broncos threw a cheap shot at Drew Stanton and chop blocked Calais Campbell.  You think they’re afraid of the [redacted] Lions at home in a dome that has the most opponent off-sides penalties this year?  [redacted].  You.” CARDINALS

Ryan: These are probably the two best teams in the NFC right now because football is weird. Lions.

New England @ Indianapolis (-3)

Stephen: From Hef – “This game scares me more than the Broncos game two weeks ago.  Is it because Andrew Luck isn’t afraid of Bill Belichick like Peyton is?  Or is it because Tom Brady might faint from the smell of all those fat, sweaty midwesterners packed into a dome.  Either way, pound the over.”PATRIOTS

Ryan: Pretty happy I get to listen to this game on the radio. Everyone else: Have fun with Collinsworth in this one! Patriots.

Jason: Lots of people are declaring the Patriots the best team in football again. Colts.

Pittsburgh (-6) @ Tennessee

Ryan: ESPN is probably psyched they’re paying $100 million to air this game. Steelers.

Jason: There was a brief time when this was a pretty intense game. Those days are a long way from this Monday. Battle of the ‘Bergers should be must-see TV. Titans.

Stephen: Ben Roethlisberger has thrown more touchdown passes in the last three weeks than he has the rest of the season combined. STEELERS