Road to the College Football Playoff: Cold Weather and Undefeated Road Trips
By Ty Duffy
Last week weeded out some faux candidates. This week, we focus on the remaining undefeateds. Mississippi State and Florida State are both 9-0 in power five conferences and, at present, playoff bound. Both face what looks to be their toughest obstacle left. For the Seminoles, a stumble could mean elimination.
The No.1 Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa as 8.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers’ lack of faith should not surprise. Mississippi State has done enough, but little more, in narrow Kentucky and Arkansas wins. The Bulldogs have played perhaps the softest SEC West schedule so far. The non-conference slate is garbage. They have met only one of their three best division opponents, in Starkville.
Alabama returns home after a grueling overtime win in Tiger Stadium. They won’t leave the friendly confines for the rest of the regular season. The Tide do have a blemish at 8-1, but that was a close loss at Ole Miss with two missed field goals and a devastating interception. Nick Saban’s team tends to decide the SEC West, one way or another.
Why is Alabama favored by so much? We’ll scratch out the FCS games for you. Mississippi State is 8th nationally in yards/play offense vs. FBS. Alabama is 15th, after playing very good Florida and Ole Miss defenses. Alabama is 3rd nationally in yards/play defense vs. FBS. Mississippi State is 58th.
The Bulldogs have been particularly bad giving up huge pass plays. Mississippi State is dead last in the SEC, having allowed 16 passes for longer than 30 yards. They rank 118th nationally, having allowed seven passes for longer than 50 yards. UAB and LSU had success throwing on them. We’re guessing Lane Kiffin has noticed that. Dak Prescott could win the Heisman today. Mississippi State may need him to.
No. 3 Florida State hops on the Turnpike down to Miami, metaphorically. We’re presuming there’s a charter flight involved. The Seminoles are only 2.5-point favorites, against an unranked team. How does that make sense? Well, if you look at SRS, Florida State is 10th (16.13). Miami is 15th (14.99). The power numbers are much closer than perception. Though, are those numbers really fair if they don’t factor in accrued stress from ESPN witch-hunts and social media potency?
Miami lost to Louisville and Nebraska and does not really have a “statement” win (Duke, maybe?). But, neither does Florida State. Their best win is edging past a good but not great Notre Dame at home on a controversial call after being outplayed? Coming back against Louisville after a horrible 1st half? The Noles have not posted a convincing four quarters all season.
Statistics aside, Miami may just be a bad matchup for Florida State. The former team has solidified up front on both sides. The latter team has been shaky. Miami runs the ball well. Florida State struggles stopping the run. The Seminoles rely entirely on the pass. The Hurricanes have one of the nation’s top pass defenses.
Don’t discount those front-running Miami fans. They may show up for this one and look exactly like this.
This Week in Big Ten Unwatchability
Iowa at Illinois: Iowa comes in at 6-3, fresh off a 37-point loss at Minnesota, one of two opponents with a winning FBS record. Illinois is still battling for bowl eligibility at 4-5, with three of the wins coming against Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Texas State. Tim Beckman is trying to go to 3-19 in the B1G in his third season. Must be the academics. Look at how much trouble Ron Zook had getting players to go there.
Indiana at Rutgers: Rutgers is still one win away from bowl play off the back of three-straight defeats to Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. With road trips to Maryland and Michigan State left, at home against a quarterback-less Indiana may be the best opportunity. This is not a trophy game. There’s no benign, nebulous concept at stake…yet.
Temple at Penn State: Penn State is eligible to bowl and will look to secure it against the Owls. Temple, at 5-4, could reach bowl play by beating the Nittany Lions. Penn State has not scored three touchdowns in regulation in conference play. Temple has not scored more than 20 in its last four games. Should be a humdinger or, as James Franklin will put it, “beautiful.”
Michigan: Not playing this week, praise the gods.
Picks
We went 2-3 last week. Alabama covering in overtime was a killer. Our picks are now 36-24-1 on the season. Our favorite things this week: home teams and letdowns in the cold.
Alabama (-8.5) vs. Mississippi State… Not entirely convinced by the Bulldogs for reasons noted above. Expect Amari Cooper to terrorize Mississippi State’s defense early and often. Alabama may not be a juggernaut, but they are the better team. They emphasize that point at home.
Miami (+2.5) vs. Florida State… Sometimes in life, you have to trust a sweaty man and play the contrarian. Not an ideal matchup for the Seminoles as they head on the road. Miami, an in-state rival, has some talent and will be way more pumped up for this one.
Arkansas (-2) vs. LSU… This game featured on our 2014 Trap Games list. Les Miles’ young team heads on the road physically and mentally deflated after a rough loss to Alabama. That’s not an optimal time to face Bret Bielema’s massive road-paving crew coming off a bye. Eight of the last nine between these teams have come down to one-score. That includes last year in Baton Rouge when the Hogs nearly won. This should come down to running the ball at night in the cold. Bret gets his first SEC win.
Minnesota (+12) vs. Ohio State… This too was on our 2014 Trap Games List. Ohio State leaves Columbus in a letdown spot, after a huge Michigan State win. Minnesota’s defense has been, for the most part, solid against the run and excellent against the pass. The Gophers will be backed up by Old Man Winter. The wind chill will be around 10 degrees at kickoff. The Buckeyes have not been imperious on the road under Meyer. That’s too many points.
Oregon State (+9) vs. Arizona State… The Sun Devils are set for a letdown too. They just crushed Notre Dame. They have played five of their last six against ranked opponents, the sixth was at Washington. This feels like a loosen the belt type game. They travel to an unseasonably cold Corvallis at night. Wind chills will be in the teens at kickoff. A slower game plays well for the Beavers.