Monday Read Option: MVP Race Shifts to Green Bay as Packers Roll, Broncos Struggle
By Jason Lisk
Peyton Manning was lighting up the scoreboard this year, Andrew Luck was throwing for 300 yard games at will, and Tom Brady rebounded from a rough early start to dominate since the start of October.
It is Aaron Rodgers, though, who now sits atop the MVP discussion through 11 weeks (with do-it-all J.J. Watt the only non-QB in the mix) after a seismic shift Sunday. On a day when Peyton Manning’s Broncos were throttled in St. Louis, Aaron Rodgers continued his blazing hot streak with another game where the Packers scored more than 50 points, and now Green Bay leads the league in points scored.
It’s almost unfair what Rodgers has been doing. If you haven’t been paying attention, Rodgers is playing as well as he did during his MVP season in 2011, when he set an all-time record for passer rating in a single season (122.5). If he continues, he could hold the two highest-rated seasons ever, as he is currently at 120.1 this year, just behind Peyton Manning’s 2004 season.
Rodgers now leads the league in passer rating, yards per attempt, interception rate and touchdown rate, and he pulled into a 2nd place tie for overall passing touchdowns at 28 with Luck, and just two behind Manning.
He’s not run away with it like in 2011, when only desperate writers were looking to name someone else, like Tebow. But man, is he awesome to watch, always seeming to place the ball perfectly.
It was almost unfair Sunday. On the first touchdown drive, Rodgers converted a 3rd and 8, a 3rd and 10, and this 3rd and 18 play after an aborted shotgun snap put Green Bay back, and all of them looked easy and effortless.
If you get an offense, even one with a quarterback as good as Rodgers, in third and long, you should at least have a fighting chance. On Sunday, the Eagles had no chance. With an average distance of 10 yards to go, Rodgers went 7 of 11 for 127 yards on third down. It took a 3rd and 22 after an intentional grounding call in the third quarter, before the Packers had to punt.
After that, Green Bay did to the Eagles what Philadelphia has done to other teams, take advantage of special teams and defensive turnovers to create other scores. And now, Green Bay is surging in the NFC again. The defense, though, is playing better than in 2011.
BRONCOS GET BEAT UP IN ST. LOUIS
The last time a team held a Peyton Manning-quarterbacked team was in last year’s Super Bowl. Before that, you have to go back (at least in games where Manning threw 20 passes, to exclude those week 17 “lay downs”) to the Divisional playoff game at New England following the 2004 season.
How did the Rams do it? Well, losing Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to injury didn’t help. Even before then, though, Denver was struggling to consistently protect Manning and move the ball.
It started on the first offensive play of the game for the Broncos, when Robert Quinn drew a holding call on Ryan Clady and still knocked Peyton Manning down. The Rams consistently got early pressure on Manning, both with their four man rush, and when mixing in additional rushers that seemed to always come free right in the middle of the line. Denver is shuffling their offensive line, and well, the results on Sunday were not pretty.
The other key, though, because Manning is still pretty good at getting the ball out, is to limit his options and make immediate sure tackles. T.J. McDonald was fantastic. He made a key tackle on a 3rd down early in the game, where Denver used one of their familiar “rubs” to flare Julius Thomas out, and McDonald hit him short of the first down.
Or how about this wide receiver screen in the second half to Demaryius Thomas? Take a guess how many yards Thomas gained on this play, based on the snap shot of the play just as he caught the ball.
He was tackled at the 27. He didn’t follow that blocking for a sure, but not huge gain that would have picked up 6 or 7, and instead tried to cut outside and was cut down.
That was just one example, though, of the tackling by the secondary defenders, who were on point except for the blown coverage that allowed the only touchdown to Sanders.
Meanwhile, a few random notes. One, I don’t want to ever see Jacob Tamme running a vertical route again. Two, Wes Welker should retire. He dropped a pass, looked generally not that concerning to a defense, and took some more shots, one on a throw over the middle, another (that made me laugh because it was an illegal pick on Welker that Denver got away with) after a defender pushed him down following pass completed behind him.
Even with all the issues, Denver moved the ball in some chunks. The Broncos had 204 yards in the first half, and it was some key plays–the third and short stop, a fourth down miss–that prevented more points. Of course, one reason for that was the early pressure Manning felt.
This fourth down in the fourth quarter effectively ended any comeback, and was illustrative. Robert Quinn, after already tipping two passes on the possession, curled inside and the Broncos’ linemen lost him, as he blew up the play straight up the middle.
Denver was the presumptive favorite. They now are in a tie for the AFC West lead, and still have to go to Kansas City, a team, by the way, that can send out Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and Dontari Poe on the defensive pass rush. Denver better have the receivers healthy, and the offensive line figured out by then.
SEATTLE AND SAN FRANCISCO WILL HAVE TWO UPCOMING SHOWDOWNS FOR ONE PLAYOFF SPOT . . . MAYBE
On a day when Arizona again won by shutting down Detroit to get to a 9-1 record, Seattle lost a slugfest in Kansas City, dropping to 6-4. Arizona now has a three game lead in the NFC West with six games to go. Seattle and San Francisco, meanwhile, the two participants in last year’s championship game, are both on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. The current playoff standings are the Cardinals, four teams at 7-3, and the NFC South winner (Atlanta right now at 4-6).
Here’s the problem, if you are either of those teams, and particularly Seattle. You probably have to get to 10 wins to even have a chance, and then it could come down to tiebreakers.
Seattle still plays Arizona twice, San Francisco twice, and at Philadelphia in the next five weeks, before closing with the Rams. They must win, at minimum, three of those five games to have a chance entering the final weekend. Arizona, meanwhile, could put Seattle in serious trouble if they can win on the road this weekend.
San Francisco’s schedule is slightly better–four home games, games against Washington and Oakland in addition to Seattle twice, Arizona, and San Diego.
Still, I don’t see much chance both can make the playoffs after the events of yesterday, and there’s a decent chance that if they split their rivalry, neither is back in the postseason this year. Those games should be must-watch for their intensity.
[GIFs by Michael Shamburger]