Champions League Scenarios: Which Teams Can Advance to the Knockout Rounds?

If you’re a soccer fan, the UEFA Champions League is great. You obviously didn’t need me to tell you that simplistic statement. As enjoyable as the competition is, it doesn’t really become compelling/must-watch in the Group Stages until today when we really get a sense of high-stakes, elimination soccer. Granted, the six-game, home-and-home format is forgiving and allows the proverbial cream to rise to the top, but with two matches left before the knockout rounds there is a lot of intrigue and frayed nerves for fans of clubs like Liverpool, Juventus and Manchester City.

Play resumes today and continues tomorrow — Europe doesn’t seem to worry too much about the American Thanksgiving holiday. (There’s even a Europa League game Thursday on Fox Sports 1 featuring Tottenham, which should make everyone especially thankful.) Reminder, Groups E-H play Tuesday while A-D go on Wednesday. Fox Sports 1 will air Manchester City-Bayern on Tuesday and Arsenal-Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday.

Group A

Standings: Atletico Madrid (9 points); Olympiacos (6); Juventus (6); Malmö (3)
Qualified: None
Alive: All
Scenarios: Group A is the most wide-open group so far, mostly because Olympiacos beat both Atletico, last year’s finalists, and Juventus at home. Juventus, the reigning Serie A champs, still can’t figure out a way to get it going in European play and faces essentially must-win Wednesday in Sweden vs. Malmö. Last year Juventus drew away at another Scandinavian club, FC Copenhagen, and ending up missing out on the knockout rounds by one point. Everything is still left to play for here and next month’s Juventus/Atletico match in Turin could end up being an elimination game pending results today.

Group B

Standings: Real Madrid (12); FC Basel (6); Liverpool (3); Ludogorets Razgrad (3)
Qualified: Real Madrid
Alive: Basel, Liverpool, Ludogorets
Scenarios: Real Madrid are through and on a 14-game winning streak across all competitions since a loss to Atletico Madrid on Sept. 14. The defending champs are the team you don’t want to draw in the Round of 16, putting extra incentive on winning your group. For struggling Liverpool the simplest equation to follow is to win Wednesday at Ludogorets and beat Basel at Anfield next month and the Reds are (probably) through. Goal differential — Basel is at 0, while Liverpool is -4 — could make it more complicated. If Basel somehow beat Real Madrid in Switzerland tomorrow, Liverpool’s chances drop exponentially.

Group C

Standings: Bayer Leverkusen (9); Monaco (5); Zenit St. Petersburg (5) Benfica (4).
Qualified: None
Alive: All.
Scenarios: Chaos reigns in Group C. Leverkusen leads the way with nine points but that’s only ensured a third-place finish so far. The Germans advance with either a win or draw Wednesday vs. Monaco, while the rest of the scenarios will come down to the final group games.

Group D

Standings: Borussia Dortmund (12); Arsenal (7); Anderlecht (2); Galatasaray (1)
Qualified: Dortmund
Alive: Arsenal, Anderlecht, Galatasaray
Scenarios: Arsenal hosts Jurgen Klopp’s Dortmund at the Emirates on Wednesday. A draw is enough for the Gunners to lock up a spot in the Round of 16. Dortmund clinches first place in the group with a draw vs. Arsenal. Arsenal is still sweating things out since it coughed up a three-goal lead last time out against Anderlecht in a match that finished 3-3. If Arsene Wenger’s team ends up paired against a team like Real Madrid in the Round of 16, that’s why. Dortmund, while great in the Champions League, is down to 16th in the 18-team Bundesliga and will be without star winger Marco Reus until 2015 due to another injury.

Group E

Standings: Bayern Munich (12); Roma (5 points, five games played); CSKA Moscow (5 points, five games played); Manchester City (2)
Qualified: Bayern (won group)
Alive: Roma, CSKA, Manchester City
Scenarios: All eyes are on the defending EPL champions, City, which was looking at another elimination in the Group Stage. City’s only advanced once in its previous three Champions League appearances. City caught a massive break earlier Tuesday when CSKA scored in the 93rd minute to draw Roma 1-1. As a result City can’t be eliminated with a loss today. Bayern, which is dealing with numerous injuries (but still starts a front line of Franck Ribery, Robert Lewandowski and Arjen Robben), won’t have much to play for, so it’s all in City’s hands. City also plays Roma next month in its final Group game, of course City needs to win at least one of its final two matches to have any shot to advance.

Group F

Standings: PSG (10); Barcelona (9); Ajax (2); APOEL (1)
Qualified: PSG, Barcelona
Alive: Ajax and Apoel, for third place and a trip to the Europa League
Scenarios: Group F went to form. Next month at the Camp Nou, Barca hosts PSG in what will likely determine the first place finisher. The other will end up as the most-dangerous second-place team in the knockouts, although PSG’s credentials in Europe are still somewhat questionable against the continent’s elite.

Group G

Standings: Chelsea (8); Schalke (5); Sporting CP (4); Maribor (3)
Qualified: None
Alive: Chelsea, Schalke, Sporting, Maribor
Scenarios: Chelsea still has to take care of business today in Germany with a win vs. Schalke to make sure it advances, or the Blues can leave it to next month at Stamford Bridge vs. Sporting. The loser of Sporting-Maribor is eliminated today. Schalke is in the weird scenario where it can’t advance with a win vs. Chelsea but also can’t be eliminated with a loss today, either.

Group H

Standings: Porto (13 points, five games played); Shakhtar Donetsk (8); BATE Borisov (3, five games played); Athletic Bilbao (1)
Qualified: Porto, Shakhtar
Alive: none
Scenarios: Porto beat BATE earlier Tuesday and will likely win the group.

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[Photos via Getty]