Will Baylor Pass TCU For a College Football Playoff Place? Should It?

Baylor hired a PR firm to promote their candidacy for the College Football Playoff. The efficacy of that move is debatable, though the more interesting question is why they would need it.

Schedule Strength

Much has been made about the strength of schedule disparity. Using Sports Reference’s SRS formula, TCU has played the 53rd toughest schedule. Baylor has played the 76th toughest. What will the difference be once Baylor plays Kansas State (No. 13 SRS) and TCU plays Iowa State (No. 102 SRS)? Probably negligible.

Baylor and TCU play the same nine conference teams. The difference is TCU played Minnesota and two body bags outside the Big 12. Baylor played three body bags. We can moralize about the Bears’ non-conference timidity. But, since they play a ninth conference game, it’s not that different from Alabama scheduling West Virginia and then playing Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss and Western Carolina.

Margin of Victory

Baylor’s 61-58 win over TCU at home was basically a tie? Fine, but one must extend that logic through both team’s schedules. Baylor’s one other close game was 48-46 over Texas Tech. If you’re the playoff committee, you note their starting QB was knocked out in the 2nd quarter. TCU has games that were “basically” a tie against Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas.

The Horned Frogs edged the Mountaineers by a point. Baylor lost by two touchdowns. But, one also has to note the Bears beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman (TCU won by four at home) and beat Kansas by 46 (TCU won by four). TCU has the emphatic win over Kansas State. Baylor still has the opportunity to equal or exceed that this weekend.

Head to Head

We saw these teams play on the field. Baylor won. That should not be the only factor. But, if both teams finish 11-1, it should have primacy. College football is (or wants to be perceived as) a tangible competition, not a beauty pageant. It should take something substantial to override the result of a bonafide football game. Is the difference between a 23-point win over Minnesota and a 42-point win over Buffalo in September that substantial? That’s the question.