Road to the College Football Playoff: Championship Week, Harbaugh to Michigan?
By Ty Duffy
Conference Championship Week: where we decide conference titles that should already have been decided. Alabama finished one game ahead of Missouri in the SEC, in the tougher West. Oregon finished one game ahead of Arizona in the Pac 12. Florida State and Ohio State ran through their conferences undefeated and play opponents who were defeated. The one conference with a potential tie, the Big 12, will determine it with tiebreakers.
This week is about television cash. Which is why, however desirable it may be to shed these games and the associated divisions, it won’t happen. Under an eight-team playoff, those games would only be more valuable.
The Games
SEC
Alabama is in the playoff, with a win. Missouri could win the SEC and, with incredible irony, eliminate the conference, in favor of two Big 12 teams. Two Big 12 teams that, had the conference imploded, may have floundered in the abyss.
Lane Kiffin has firebombed bad defenses this year. But, Missouri’s has been anything but. The Tigers have allowed five yards/play once in conference play (5.41 to Texas A&M). Missouri presents a similar obstacle to LSU in the passing game. When they were run over by Georgia, it was at 3.6 yards/carry. The question is whether the Tigers can/will do anything on offense. One can’t doubt Maty Mauk’s spunk, but Missouri’s passing game was about as efficient than Florida’s this year. Yeah…
Pac 12
The Ducks receive the rematch they wanted, or, more likely, didn’t want. Arizona beat Oregon in Autzen in October and crushed them at home last season. Rich Rodriguez must now do it for the third time in 13 months. Could the Wildcats at No. 7 make a late leap into that top four with an upset?
Oregon, with the nation’s best quarterback, has a more efficient offense. Arizona has the coach who invented that offense and could exploit a Ducks defense that has looked suspect against the run and is dead last in the Pac 12 in opponent third down conversion percentage. Worth noting: Arizona is 6-1 in one-score games. Oregon has not played in one when healthy. Marcus Mariota heads to New York regardless. If the Ducks win, he’ll be coming back with a trophy.
ACC
Florida State has won seven games by six points or fewer in 2014, many of those against average teams. The Seminoles beat one FBS team, Wake Forest, by three touchdowns. They appear to be single-handedly making college football rethink its predilection for undefeated teams. Florida State ranked No. 4 in the latest CFB playoff rankings. Will Georgia Tech be the team to finally knock them off?
The Seminoles said they scheduled the Citadel to prepare for the Yellow Jackets. FSU will hope they look more prepared than in that game. While the Noles cruised to victory, their defense conceded 250 yards on 56 carries as a number of players up front went down with injuries. Jameis Winston did have his student code of conduct hearing this week. His almost inhuman indifference to off-the-field drama will again be tested.
B1G
Ohio State is relevant, but, barring chaos, a win should still leave them the odd team out. Fairly or not, the injury to quarterback J.T. Barrett will be a contributing factor. The Buckeyes enter this game as 4.5-point underdogs against Wisconsin, who rode a soft conference schedule to 10-2.
Two issues for Ohio State here. First, Wisconsin has a top-tier defense. The Buckeyes’ offense struggled against the two top 10 FEI defenses, Penn State and Virginia Tech, they faced with J.T. Barrett. Here they play the 14th ranked unit with Cardale “We Ain’t Come To Play School” Jones at the helm. Second, Wisconsin has the great Melvin Gordon. The closest thing Ohio State has faced is Tevin Coleman (7.81 yards/carry conceded to Indiana). The Buckeyes also gave up more than seven yards/carry to Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford.
Big 12 Regular Season
Baylor can score a major win, beating the committee’s No. 9 team Kansas State. TCU finishes with Iowa State, perhaps the worst team in the conference. The Bears beat TCU head to head. The teams have similar resumés. Yet, the committee has been enamored with the Horned Frogs. They enter the week No. 3, ahead of Florida State. The Bears are No. 6, behind Ohio State. Last week’s rankings aren’t supposed to count. But, if TCU wins comfortably, would a Baylor victory over Kansas State provide enough juice to overtake the Horned Frogs?
The Coaching Searches
Florida spent tens of millions to pry Jim McElwain away from Colorado State. It’s not clear whether that reflects Jeremy Foley’s conviction or a bleak marketplace. Half-full, McElwain was an excellent offensive coordinator under Saban with Alabama and converted Colorado State to a winner in three years. Half-empty, he’s unproven at the power five level. Much of his present success stems from luring former Alabama five-star running back Dee Hart. He’s no Rich Rod.
Nebraska shocked the college football world, hiring 61-year-old Oregon State coach Mike Riley, who had previously turned down his alma-mater Alabama and USC to stay with the Beavers. Riley is a solid coach, who develops players and recruits the West Coast and Texas (which Nebraska needs to do). He’s also far more personable. That move doesn’t quite raise the 9-10 win ceiling, but who was that coach was and was Nebraska in any position to attract him?
Incredibly, both schools ended up with more mundane hires than lowly SMU landing Clemson OC Chad Morris.
The outstanding “major power” left is Michigan. Rumors of secret, too sexy to be named in public hires abound. But, Michigan people have said they are planning a deliberate process. The most logical rationale for that is overtures to Jim Harbaugh, unavailable until late December, have not been rebuffed.
Both MGoBlog and 247Sports have reported Harbaugh has told multiple people he is interested. Lloyd Carr, as a connected civilian, called for Harbaugh to be hired. It’s not clear what inside knowledge that expresses. But, it confirms the any animosity between Carr and Harbaugh over Michigan’s academics has been buried.
If Harbaugh does have some legit interest in Michigan, the decisive factor may be which NFL jobs he gets offered (or will be allowed to leave for by the 49ers). The Super Bowl is an undoubted attraction. Attractive enough for him to take just any NFL job with a historically meddlesome and incompetent front office?
Michigan absorbs some risk waiting around, but much less with Florida and Nebraska off the board and no major jobs coming available until after the NFL season. Wolverine fans will brace for another long, potentially perilous waiting period.
[Photo via USAT]