Florida State is a Unique Case for an Undefeated Team, Which is Why the Committee's Ranking is Understandable
By Jason Lisk
Florida State dropped to fourth in the College Football Playoff Committee rankings with one week to go. They will still likely get into the playoff, if they beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
However, there is much consternation over the committee choosing to put 1-loss teams ahead of the nation’s only undefeated FBS team. Is the committee just making it up and using the eye test, final win-loss results on the field be damned? Are they engaging in a massive departure from behavior throughout college football history?
I would say no. Florida State in 2014 is a very unique case to college football, and it just happens to be occurring in the first season of a new playoff system. I don’t think it represents a sea change in voter/decision maker thinking about teams, as much as it represents a real outlier.
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The college football site at sports-reference.com has historical ratings and results. It also, with every season, lists a power rating, that is simply point differential and strength of schedule. It is a good proxy for the “eye test”, because teams that win close or not impressively, or don’t play a tough schedule, may be below a 1 or 2-loss team that blew teams out and dominated most of their schedule.
There were 25 teams in the BCS era that were undefeated heading into conference championship weekend. Twenty-four of them were rated in the top 6 in the power ratings, meaning they appeared to be among the top teams, and were voted ahead of similar 1-loss teams.
Florida State is 10th so far this year in the same method of rating teams.
Ohio State in 2012 is the only other undefeated team of the past 20 years to be outside the top 6 in the power rating. That team was also a unique case, on probation and ineligible for the postseason, and also won six close games against what was perceived as a lesser schedule. They were ranked behind 1-loss Alabama, entering conference championship weekend, by the AP voters, and ineligible for consideration by BCS standings.
Ohio State in 2002 is a reasonable comparison, in that they won six close games on the way to a national title, and were seen by many lucky. That team, though, was still 5th in the power ratings with those close results, and looked more impressive.
The next two lowest rated undefeated teams, besides Florida State this year and that 2012 Ohio State team were 2008 Alabama and 2012 Notre Dame, who both finished 6th. Alabama lost the SEC championship game and Notre Dame lost in the title game.
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Okay, so let’s go further back. In the BCS era, most undefeated teams were dominant against their schedules and maybe won a couple of close games against decent competition.
Going back to 1990, 20 more teams were undefeated entering conference championship weekend. The schedules were a little more uneven, and five of them were rated outside the top 6 by the power rating.
Let’s look at those five for comparison to how FSU is being viewed today.
- In 1994, Alabama was 12th in the power rating. They were ranked 3rd, behind fellow undefeateds Penn State and Nebraska in the AP poll entering the conference championships. However, they were ranked 4th behind 1-loss Florida the week before, flipping when Florida tied Florida State, and Alabama beat Auburn (the only team to beat Florida, by 3). Florida beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game the next week.
- Also, in 1994, Texas A&M was 10-0-1 at the end of the regular season. They were 11th in the power rating, and ranked 8th, behind several teams with losses, in the AP.
- In 1993, West Virginia was undefeated and rated 16th. They were ranked 3rd in the AP, behind #1 Florida State, who had a close loss at Notre Dame.
- In 1993, Auburn was undefeated (and on probation), they were 17th in the power rating with several close wins. They were ranked 5th, behind 1-loss Notre Dame and 1-loss Florida State.
- In 1992, Texas A&M was undefeated and 12th in the power rating. They were ranked 4th in the AP, behind (and I’m sensing a theme here) a 1-loss Florida State, who had only lost “wide right” against Miami. They were also just a few votes ahead of #5 Notre Dame, who would blow them out in the Cotton Bowl, 28-3.
That’s it for teams that were even similar to how Florida State is testing the limits of “they are undefeated” versus “they don’t win pretty”. I think it is extremely unlikely that an undefeated team from a power five conference ever misses a 4-team playoff. Florida State, with long stretches of close calls and few dominant performances, is testing that. But it is what it is–a very unique case for college football.
The committee isn’t necessarily departing from how we have always viewed teams in a system where the best rarely matchup and schedules differ wildly. In the past, when undefeated teams didn’t pass the eye test, they were ranked behind some 1-loss teams. Ironically, often behind Florida State when they had only lost in close fashion to Notre Dame or Miami or Florida.
I don’t think there is any problem with that. If Florida State wins on Saturday, they are in. I think there is a decent chance, given that Georgia Tech is a unique matchup AND the best they have faced, that they don’t. Well, if they play more like the 2014 version rather than the 2013 version of the Seminoles, that is. We all know that this team has talent, but hasn’t always played to it. They’ll get a chance to prove it, if they can play like a top 4 team from here on out.