AFC North: Breaking Down the Division Winner Possibilities
By Jason Lisk
All four teams in the AFC North are still in contention to win the division with three games to go, and it’s possible that as many as three teams make the postseason (or all the teams besides the division winner get locked out).
Let’s go through some scenarios:
BENGALS WIN OUT: Tough task with two difficult division road games in the division, plus the Broncos. If it happened, of course, Cincinnati wins the North at 11-4-1.
STEELERS WIN OUT: If the Steelers win out including in week 17 against Cincinnati, they would win the division, because they would hold the tiebreaker over Baltimore on division record, even if Baltimore also went 3-0.
RAVENS WIN OUT: Baltimore has the best path to going undefeated, but also cannot win the division without outside help. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both must lose one game. Baltimore would still clinch a playoff spot with three wins, regardless of other results.
BROWNS WIN OUT: Cleveland would finish ahead of Baltimore by winning out. In order to win the division, they would then need Pittsburgh to lose to Cincinnati, or lose the next two games. They would also need Cincinnati to lose to Denver OR Pittsburgh to lose both of their next two games then beat Cincinnati.
Cleveland would finish 2nd without any help by winning out, and would then be in tiebreakers with other divisions if three teams finished 10-6. In that scenario, they would likely be in trouble (6-6 in conference) because they did not play KC, SD, or MIA.
Okay, so what if teams don’t win out. Likely given that all of these teams are in several tossup games.
Cincinnati can get in the playoffs at 10-5-1, so long as any of SD, PIT, or BAL lose a game. They win the division if PIT and BAL both lose a game.
Pittsburgh can win the division at 10-6 by beating Cincinnati in week 17, having Cincinnati lose one of the other games, and having Baltimore lose a game. Pittsburgh makes the wildcard at 10-6 in most scenarios, though they are complicated. (losing a head to head tiebreaker with Kansas City could be costly, but Pittsburgh has a good conference record that should come in handy in three-way tiebreakers).
Baltimore can win the division at 10-6 so long as everyone else finishes worse than 10-6. They would lose a tiebreaker to Cleveland (which requires the Browns win out) and to Pittsburgh (on either div record, common games, or conference record). Baltimore would also be in trouble on tiebreakers at 10-6 for a wildcard spot, because of conference record (6-6).
Cincinnati can win the division at 9-6-1. That would require that Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland all finish 9-7 or worse.
If there is a tie for the division lead at 9-7, because Cincinnati lost every game, Pittsburgh would win the tiebreaker with the other two, or either of them. (and Pittsburgh would necessarily have to have 9 or more wins if Cincinnati finishes 8-7-1). Baltimore and Cleveland cannot win the division at 9-7 or worse, unless–for Cleveland–it involves Cincinnati getting another tie.