J.J. Watt Can Win the MVP if the Quarterbacks Split Votes

He still has a chance, though, for a couple of reasons other than his dominance:

1) He’s scored touchdowns in a variety of ways, from being a tight end in goal line packages to defensive scores, so he adds the wow factor;

2) In a year where various quarterbacks have been presumptive MVPs at various times, no one stands out as being above the pack as we enter the final week. This means that we could have a situation where there is a split amongst quarterback votes, and if Watt garners enough support, he could win in a plurality.

In 1982, in one of the more bizarre decisions (I’m not even sure it’s close), kicker Mark Moseley won MVP in the shortened season. Ken Anderson completed over 70% of his passes that year, setting an NFL record, and Dan Fouts was his usual dominant self, but they kind of split support, allowing Moseley to take the honors. I’m not suggesting that Watt winning would be on par with Moseley–far from it–only that the situation this year is now open to splitting votes and allowing Watt to win honors.

Last year, I talked about how some quarterbacks ranked in passer rating in winning MVP. Only one quarterback in the last 20 years has been outside the top 3 in passer rating and won MVP–Manning in 2008 and 2009. The current top 3, after Peyton Manning’s four interception game against Cincinnati, are Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger. Romo just started getting MVP columns this week after a big game against Indianapolis, Rodgers has been there all along but is no longer heads and shoulders above others, and Big Ben wasn’t even selected MVP of his own team (Le’Veon Bell).

A couple of years ago, I also looked at where MVP winners ranked in various passing categories. The leading indicators were, in order, their rank in adjusted net yards per attempt, passer rating, touchdown pass percentage, total touchdown passes, and yards per attempt. While raw touchdown totals mattered, total pass attempts did not, with plenty of MVPs not being in the top 10 in passes thrown.

Where do the QB candidates rank in those top 5 categories in 2014? Here’s a summary of guys I could see getting some votes.

Aaron Rodgers: 1, 2, 3, 2, 2

Tony Romo: 2, 1, 5, 1, 1

Peyton Manning: 4, 4, 1, 3, 4

Tom Brady: 7, 6, 4, 5, 12

Ben Roethlisberger: 3, 3, 8, 8, 3

Add those numbers up, and Rodgers and Romo both add up to 10 in the five most important categories, splitting them. Both would be reasonable MVP candidates based on past precedent. But you know that Tom Brady’s going to get some for the Patriots surging to the #1 seed after a poor start, and you know Russell Wilson, who doesn’t match up statistically, will still garner some support as well. Add all those things up, and I think that–just like in 2012 when Adrian Peterson won MVP when the Vikings slipped into the playoffs–another non-QB has an opportunity.

If Houston can win against Jacksonville, and get into the playoffs, I think that is J.J. Watt.