Lionel Messi's Uncertain Future at Barcelona: Speculation, Facts or a Little of Both?

Lionel Messi didn’t win the Ballon d’Or on Monday. Considering he’s won the award four times previously, my guess is the Argentine star slept okay later that night, even if rival Cristiano Ronaldo took home the trophy.

More intriguing over the last week is Messi’s uncertain future with Barcelona. Most of the speculation is linked to Messi’s “falling out” with manager Luis Enrique … and then some other really dumb stuff, even by 2015 sports Internet standards.

On Sunday, Messi said this about the speculation following an important 3-1 win over Atletico Madrid, “I have no intentions of leaving for any team, not Chelsea nor Manchester City. I’m tired of all the things that people have been saying. I didn’t ask the club to fire anyone.” Messi even termed some of the reporting on his future “lies.”

A day later, before the Ballon d’Or ceremony in Zurich, when asked about his future?

To get you up to speed, here’s a brief list of some of the issues swirling around Barcelona at the moment, not including Messi’s tax evasion issues which predate this latest set of rumors. The term “crisis” (one of the most over-used terms in all of soccer) was regularly bandied about last week. It bears remembering that Barcelona is, in fact, a club with members who directly vote for the board of directors and president, meaning there is significantly more politicking involved compared to other teams. Although most soccer contracts aren’t worth the money they’re printed on, Messi is under contract until 2018 with Barcelona.

* Dec. 31: The Court of Arbitration for Sport upheld the club’s transfer ban for violating youth signing rules. Barcelona cannot sign new players until January 2016.
* Jan. 4: Messi starts game on the bench, his sour relationship with coach Luis Enrique is agains called into question. Barcelona loses 1-0 at Real Sociedad. Crisis begins.
* Jan. 5: Messi’s Instagram account begins to follow Chelsea. (Yes, this was widely reported on the Internet last week.) Chelsea, it is assumed, is one of the few clubs with the money available to meet Messi’s release clause, valued somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million, if not more.
* Jan. 6: Barcelona Sporting Director Andoni Zubizarreta is fired. The recently retired Carles Puyol, Zubizarreta’s assistant, leaves, too.
* Jan. 7: Club president Josep Maria Bartomeu calls for elections in the summer following the season to “to lower the tension at the Club right now.”
* Jan. 11: Barcelona beats Athletico Madrid 3-1. Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez score. Barcelona move one point back of first-place Real Madrid, albeit with one more game played in the La Liga table. Crisis averted?

There are clearly a couple things to digest, but the Messi posturing feels mostly like a power-play between him, Enrique and the rest of the powers running the club. Messi, it’s been widely reported, is upset the club sold off Cesc Fabregas to Chelsea last June.

Sadly, we’re far beyond the point where an Instagram follow being reported as news prompts an eyeroll. (Sigh.) It is what it is. My only thought is it’s highly unlikely someone like Messi — who himself is a global brand — manages his own Instagram account. For all we know it could be one of his handlers doing it intentionally since he or she knows that the Internet will react to it and, thus, put pressure on the Barcelona board. If this is your “smoking gun” that Messi is about to force its exit, well, I’d check Netflix to see if any seasons of The X-Files are available for streaming.

Questions about the future of Barcelona and Messi are, for all the conspiracies and speculation, valid. Messi is now 27 and in his 11th season as a senior pro. How many more years he can keep up his level, which has produced 245 goals for Barca in 295 games is open to debate. Messi’s never exactly had an injury of significance. From 2008-2013 he played more than 50 games a season for Barcelona and that’s not factoring in all the travel needed to play internationally for Argentina. His legs, as brilliant as they’ve been on the soccer field, logged lots of miles on them.

At his peak run (2009-2013) Messi bagged 233 goals in 218 appearances at the club level, which doesn’t even need a qualifier to pump up its otherworldly excellence.

Messi is unlike any other player we’ve ever seen, so surmising his peak years are over or coming to an end is setting yourself up for folly. Empirical evidence points toward a slight decline from his best years and perhaps in the long-run Enrique’s squad rotation would be beneficial — Messi is well past the point he needs to bag a brace in a Copa del Rey match vs. Elche. Whatever stage of his unreal career he’s in, Messi is still theoretically young enough that a suitor like Chelsea (money + Adidas) or PSG (money) or Manchester City (money) or even Bayern Munich (money + Pep Guardiola connection + Adidas) would be able to say the move was made for sporting reasons first and foremost, rather than to sell replica shirts, cashing in on the Messi brand.

How a move away from Barcelona to one of the mega clubs — which won’t be Real Madrid, lest we recreate the Luis Figo/pig head incident from 2002 — fits under the auspices of the Financial Fair Play rules is another matter entirely. My guess, if Messi truly wants to force his way out of Barcelona and another club is willing to pony up the money, one way or another, he’ll move FFP rules be damned. UEFA could put down a hardline stance and show that its rules aren’t lip service by enforcing them with the biggest star on the planet, but that seems to, you know, go against every previous bureaucratic decision in soccer history.

The most concrete aspect of all the Messi rumblings is how it reinforces how unique Barcelona’s run from 2009-2011 was under Guardiola, when it won the Champions League twice and took home six trophies in 2009 calendar year. When you hit those highs and sustain that level of excellence for so long, yeah, losing a game to Real Sociedad is probably a “crisis” — all things being relative.

Beyond that, there’s been a noticeable lack of direction since Guardiola left in 2012, followed by Tito Vilanova’s untimely death due to cancer. Yes, Barcelona’s added marquee attacking players like Neymar and Luis Suarez, but the team hasn’t addressed or come up with a clear plan of succession once Andres Iniesta and Xavi move on or retire. The team’s defense began slipping when Puyol got older (the jury is out on his replacements, including homegrown Marc Bartra or additions like Jeremy Mathieu) and Barcelona elected to keep Dani Alves, now 31, when there were rumbling pre-World Cup about a move to PSG.

In an administrative sense, there are questions about Barcelona’s future direction, so you can see why Messi wants a bigger say in the decision making going forward (something he denies) or might consider leaving the Camp Nou if the situation further deteriorates. Should that happen, what happens to Messi’s reputation if his demands to leave grow louder and louder?

And, naturally, if Barcelona continues to notch results like it did vs. Atletico on the weekend, this talk will quiet almost as quickly as began … at least until Messi’s Instagram account follows Bastian Schweinsteiger or Mario Götze.

[Photo via Getty]