Where Does Yesterday Rank in the Pantheon of Painful Packers Playoff Losses?

As a die hard Packers fan, I don’t know if it’s possible for me to judge yesterday’s collapse against other crushing playoff losses in a vacuum (as a double-edged sword of making the postseason most years, there’ve been a lot of them), but I can rank them all in terms of how they’ve made me feel. As much as I’m hurting today, it just barely cracks the top five.

The worst

Fourth-and-26 and Favre-to-Webster were definitely worse. Prior to the conclusion of that early 2004 game against the Eagles, it felt like the Packers were on a mission from God. Favre had thrown for about a thousand yards against the Raiders the day after his father passed, Josh McCown hit Nate Poole (come again?) to knock the Vikings out of the playoffs, and “We’ll take the ball, and we’re gonna score” had happened the week before.

Even after future substitute teacher and tax evader Freddie Mitchell hauled in fourth-and-26, the Packers had the ball in overtime, needing just a field goal to seal the win. On first-and-10 from the Green Bay 32, Favre, apparently also of the belief that supernatural forces were at play, heaved the ball up deep to Packer in particular, and the ball was chased down by Brian Dawkins. That really sucked.

The 2008 NFC Championship loss to the Giants stung because that was Favre’s last game as a Packer, and I wanted him, not Eli Manning, to be the one to make the Patriots 18-1. Though a semester abroad mercifully ensured I was not in attendance for that miserable frozen affair, it’s the type of game that still ruins my day when it comes on NFL Network (which, as an aside, seems to rerun the same eight games, lists, and documentaries over and over each offseason despite having the league’s entire library at its disposal).

Next Level

Yesterday’s Seahawks debacle should probably hurt more than the 51-45 overtime loss to the Cardinals in early 2010 — the Packers were not yet legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and did not hold a lead for most of the game — but it doesn’t because the external circumstances of my life are discernibly better now (I had an unpaid internship from hell then, and currently make a living wage writing stuff like this from my couch), which goes a long way in alleviating the pain.

Since the TO catch happened when I was 12 and most of that game has faded from memory, it’s hard to say but I guess I’ll put yesterday’s loss on equal footing with it. My blood boils each time that play is discussed without mention of Jerry Rice’s uncalled fumble earlier in the drive. So there’s my top five. (For reasons I can’t explain other than being 11 and probably not paying much attention, I don’t remember being lastingly scarred by falling to the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXII.)

Silver lining

As much as today hurts, though, this was a solid season. Packers fans have been spoiled by success over the past two decades, but 12-4, a division title and (competitive) NFC Championship game appearance is not a birthright. Think about the NCAA Tournament, where a Final Four appearance yields ceremonies for cutting the nets and dropping a banner such that it’s almost celebrated like an actual championship.

Signature victories this year included a last-minute win over the Dolphins, beating the Patriots in Week 13, topping the Lions for the division crown in Week 17, and bouncing the Cowboys from the playoffs. Up and down the roster, the players are talented, likable, and gave every ounce of their bodies since the beginning of training camp. Couple that with the outright privilege of watching Aaron Rodgers, who’s historically brilliant, and if you’re dissatisfied with this team you’d be a happier person if you just found something to do other than sports. Maybe take up stamp collecting?

Every silver lining’s got a touch of grey

The concern here, though, is that Rodgers’ biological clock is ticking. It’s not as if the end is imminent, but he’s 31 years old, and coming off two straight seasons of imperfect health. What is his window to keep piecing together MVP-caliber seasons? Three or four more years? While rings and losses are not the be-all-end-all in judging quarterbacks — only a fool would say Eli has had a better career than Peyton, for example — they’re about the only tiebreaker you’ve got when you start trying to sift apart the couple best from the top ten.

All of this is subjective, but my general sense is that multiple rings ensure that Montana, Brady, and Elway are regarded as having been greater than quarterbacks with more attractive cumulative stats like Brett Favre and Peyton Manning (whether he is or isn’t finished in that pursuit will be a topic of conversation for at least the next couple months), as well as Dan Marino (who never won a ring). Fair or not, the Packers’ ability to earn another Super Bowl or two with Rodgers will determine which of those spheres he’s evaluated against.

(Counterpoint: My editor Jason Lisk vehemently disagrees with the notion of the previous two paragraphs, would rank Peyton Manning as the best quarterback of all-time, and points out that Brady and Manning have identical 88.5 career postseason passer ratings and generally comparable playoff stats. He’ll elaborate on these thoughts in a separate piece later.)

What’s next?

Nonetheless, there’s more reason for optimism for the Packers going into next season than each of the past three years. Before all the bad shit happened, they appeared to be every bit as good as the defending Super Bowl champs; unlike past recent playoff exits, Green Bay was not out-physical’ed. More luck goes into the outcome of these one-off playoff games than is generally acknowledged, and the core of young players and veterans seems to be as talented as anyone’s in the league (will Seattle’s depth be depleted after they splurge for Russell Wilson?). There are questions about whether Green Bay brings back star players like Randall Cobb (scheduled to be a free agent) and Julius Peppers (high price tag in contract), but Ted Thompson has earned my trust to get it all right.

Statistically speaking, however, it’s more likely than not I’ll be hurting again at this time next year. But, my impression is that it will, again, all be worth it.