College Football 2015 Returning Quarterbacks: SEC and Big 12 Could Be in For Rough Seasons
By Ty Duffy
Quarterbacks are vital. Stable progression tends to pan out better than uncertainty. A returning (good) quarterback can be a strong bellwether for success the following season. Below, we rank the conferences entering 2015. No. 1 won’t surprise. No. 2 may.
Take this for what it’s worth. Uncertainty is not always bad. Four of the last eight Heisman winners were first-year quarterback starters. Five of the past six national champions had first-year quarterback starters. So did four of the six participants in the past three title games. 2015’s most dominant quarterback may not feature on this list.
The Pac 12
1. Cody Kessler [USC]
2. Jared Goff [California]
3. Kevin Hogan [Stanford]
4. Anu Solomon [Arizona]
The Pac 12 loses Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley. The conference still returns ample talent at quarterback for 2015. USC’s Cody Kessler comes back for his senior year, after ranking 4th nationally in passer rating with a 39-5 TD-INT ratio. Cal’s Jared Goff will have two seasons under his belt in the “Bear Raid.” Kevin Hogan stays in Palo Alto for a fifth year and, hopefully, for some more expansive play-calling. Anu Solomon is back for Arizona, with experience, after a 10-win freshman year.
Ranking the top four short-changes the Pac 12’s depth. Cyler Miles (Washington), Travis Wilson (Utah) and Sefo Liufau (Colorado) linger on, after decent 2014 seasons. Mike Bercovici saw extensive time for Arizona State last season. Washington State’s Luke Falk had four starts following Connor Halliday’s injury. UCLA had the nation’s top 2015 quarterback enroll early. We’d presume Oregon’s offense spits out someone productive.
The trouble for the Pac 12 may be having too much strength at quarterback. With even greater parity and no true alpha team, the Pac 12 may cannibalize itself right out of the playoff.
The Big Ten
1. Miller/Jones/Barrett [Ohio State]
2. Connor Cook [Michigan State]
3. Christian Hackenberg [Penn State]
4. Nate Sudfeld [Indiana]
Ohio State, at present, has three starting quarterbacks who would be among the Heisman favorites. Michigan State’s Connor Cook performs like a first-round draft pick, a fair bit of the time. Penn States’s Christian Hackenberg could be a first-round talent, but struggled, understandably, with poor offensive line play and the dearth around him. Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld had a strong sophomore season in 2013. His injury in 2014 derailed a probable Indiana bowl trip.
That said, five teams lose senior starters. Some of those returning – Armstrong, Rudock, Stave, Leidner – inspire one to put on pants. Michigan is the biggest wildcard. Jim Harbaugh has three options on campus. It looks as though he’ll try to bring in a second freshman quarterback by signing day. The Wolverines’ ceiling depends on whether he can make due with one of them. If not, the Spartans and Buckeyes should be set to run away with the conference again.
The ACC
1. Deshaun Watson [Clemson]
2. Brad Kaaya [Miami]
3. Jacoby Brissett [N.C. State]
4. Marquise Williams [North Carolina]
Florida State loses Jameis Winston, giving the perennial ACC favorite its first quarterback conundrum in a long while. Jimbo Fisher is probably looking at Sean Maguire or a more talented true freshman. The rest of this crew has potential, but little proven quality.
Two strong freshmen come back as sophomores. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson may have been the third-straight freshman Heisman winner, had he stayed healthy. He is coming back from an ACL tear. Miami’s Brad Kaaya posted a promising freshman season, but it’s not clear whether he’ll have the infrastructure around him to succeed.
N.C. State will be a popular sleeper team with senior Jacoby Brissett. He offered some excellent performances, notably against Florida State. He balanced those with a few stinkers. If Brissett can stay toward the higher end of his range with consistency, the Wolfpack could be interesting. UNC also brings back Marquise Williams, a dual threat and, in truth, the only threat on an otherwise ineffective Tar Heel team.
The SEC
1. Dak Prescott [Mississippi State]
2. Kyle Allen [Texas A&M]
3. Brandon Allen [Arkansas]
4. Maty Mauk [Missouri]
The SEC could be facing a bleak 2015. After 2013, the conference lost Manziel, McCarron, Murray, Mettenberger and Shaw. After 2014, five of its top six passers depart again. Mississippi State brings back Dak Prescott. He was a Top 15 passer, nearly 1,000-yard rusher and a Heisman candidate while the Bulldogs were relevant. He loses a lot of veteran talent around him, though. Beyond him…yikes.
Texas A&M’s Kyle Allen is a former five-star who got his feet wet last year. If he loses that job, it will be another five-star taking it from him. Brandon Allen (Arkansas) and Patrick Towles (Kentucky) had their merits and deficiencies. Maty Mauk had spunk, at least. LSU’s Anthony Jennings will be returning. Many fans will hope it’s not as the starter.
Things won’t be that bad, however. Alabama has a myriad of viable options. Any of whom should succeed. Underwhelming fifth-year senior Blake Sims ranked Top 10 in yards/pass and passer rating in 2014. Auburn’s heir apparent Jeremy Johnson looked better throwing the ball than Nick Marshall did last year. The intriguing question is whether the conference can land a graduate transfer quarterback. Braxton Miller hooking up with Ole Miss or LSU could vault either team into the preseason playoff favorites.
Big 12
1. Trevone Boykin [TCU]
2. Trevor Knight [Oklahoma]
3. Michael Cummings [Kansas]
4. Tyrone Swoopes [Texas]
Last year was a shallow year for Big 12 quarterback play. The conference loses three of its top four passers from that group, with Bryce Petty, Jake Waters and Clint Trickett departing. Trevone Boykin should be set up for a monster season with a loaded TCU, entering a second year with Doug Meachem’s system. Beyond that…things just look depressing.
Precedent suggests Baylor will find a quarterback. Art Briles’ last three have put up elite numbers. The Bears have three options on campus, with five-star Jarrett Stidham enrolling early. We expect West Virginia and Texas Tech will be able to throw the ball. But, the Big 12’s surest thing aside from that is Trevor Knight, who has been anything but a sure thing. Perhaps, new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley will help.
A lot of teams have questions. The answers don’t seem readily apparent.