Stephen Strasburg Trade Rumors: Six Potential Destinations for the Nationals Ace

Event No. 1: Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals agree to a seven-year, $210-million contract early Monday.

Event No. 2: Trade rumors, or more accurately speculation over the future of Stephen Strasburg, begin to float after following tweet:

As it stands the Nationals now have six viable starting pitchers: Scherzer, Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark. Zimmermann and Fister are free agents after 2015. Strasburg is a free agent in 2016.

The Nationals are built to win now. Yes, there’s a surplus of starting pitching in Washington and if the team trades anyone from the rotation, odds are they’ll still make the playoffs coming out the National League East.

That said Strasburg, 26, is the rare combination of an elite-level player — he led baseball with 242 strikeouts in 2014 — who has the name recognition and cachet that likely result in suitors over-paying for him since it would sufficiently jazz up a fan base. Plus if a team were to deal for Strasburg this winter they’d still have him under team control for two seasons before he hits the market, which makes dealing valuable players away more justifiable.

If I were in Washington GM Mike Rizzo’s position, I’d hold Strasburg. Having six viable starters isn’t such a bad thing and if you put stock in Roark (2.85 ERA/131 ERA+ in 2014) going forward you can afford a year where he pitches out of the pen and then comes in to fill a spot of either Fister and Zimmermann. Beyond that, whatever haul you’d get for Strasburg would need to be outstanding, with some young blue-chip prospects ready to play right away and under team control. For 2015, at least, the Nats starting lineup looks solid enough at every position. (Maybe you want a better first base option than Ryan Zimmerman, but he’s under contract through 2019.)

Looking at the calendar, it’s mid-January and still about a month away from Spring Training, meaning we all can speculate about a potential Strasburg trade.

Three Realistic Trade Partners:

Angels: Los Angeles could use Strasburg both short-term and long term, but a lot of it comes down to how much stock the club puts in Matt Shoemaker’s rookie season which was cut short by injury but also produced a 3.04 ERA in 136 innings. Either way, C.J. Wilson ($20 million per year) and Jered Weaver ($20 million) come off the books after 2016, same year as Strasburg. The Angels might bide their time since Strasburg is a Scott Boras client and never gives teams the “hometown discount.” Anaheim sheds Josh Hamilton’s $32 million deal after 2017, so they’d have the money to make a run at Strasburg and pair him with Mike Trout going forward.

Padres: Strasburg is from San Diego and starred at San Diego State, so there’s an easy connection to make. The Padres keep making trades, so why not go big with Strasburg, too? The Paders would likely have to give up 3-4 very good prospects, which probably isn’t enough for Strasburg, since I don’t see anything viable on their Major League roster that would make Washington bite. You’re not allowed to trade draft picks in baseball, but if you could I could see the Padres pulling of their version of the Herschel Walker trade where they’d give up their entire draft to attain Strasburg, if it were allowed.

Blue Jays: Toronto’s postseason drought extends back to 1993. GM Alex Anthopoulos continually makes bold offseason moves (Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, etc.), but landing Strasburg would be Guy Fieri-level bold. Consider, too, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are each only under team control through 2016, so the Blue Jays window (as currently constructed) is closing. Toronto would be “all in” if they went for Strasburg and would have to give up a massive haul, starting with minor league pitchers Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, which again probably isn’t enough to get Washington to trade away Strasburg.

Three Seismic, You-Have-To-Consider Trade Partners:

Cubs: Chicago wants to step up and compete. Strasburg teamed with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta would boost the Cubbies in the NL Central. Chicago does have the young, major-league ready players that would make the Nationals strongly consider something.

Yankees: A friend and I were texting about Strasburg on Monday and he suggested the Yankees could start with ace reliever Dellin Betances and work from there, which would address the Nationals most pressing need in the bullpen. That said, as much as we all think money isn’t an object for New York, it makes more sense for the Yankees to make a run at Strasburg when he hits the open market in two years. Boras certainly wouldn’t cut the Yankees a discount to keep him in the Bronx.

Red Sox: Boston is probably the most-intriguing name on the list. As it stands the rebuilt Red Sox rotation is led by the 1-2 punch of Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello. Boston’s also picked up Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly. It’s an okay, functional group that will give the team innings, which is perhaps all the team wants.

Maybe this is one of those places that distinguishes the fan from the front office member. A Sox fan in Worscester has probably already come up with the package that includes Mookie Betts, Daniel Nava, Brock Holt, some other prospects and posted it to a message board or called in to WEEI that it would be enough to get Strasburg. Does the Boston front office really think the team needs a “ace” to lead the rotation?

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