Would Peyton Manning Optimize Chance of Winning By Joining a Contender Mid-Season?

The Broncos are in flux. Will Wes Welker (who’s showed signs of steep decline) and the Thomases be back? Further, as Bill Simmons (who believes Manning could be headed to the Titans, possibly to receive an ownership stake) has noted a couple times on recent podcasts, Manning and Kubiak wouldn’t seem to be a good fit based on their mutual need for control of the offense. Lots of situations around the league would seem to exist for Manning to quarterback next year. However, it’s a bit of a long-shot for him to stay healthy for a full season. Why couldn’t he join a quarterback-needy contender, which always exists, mid-year? We’re getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, but if he wants to play a full or partial season outside of Denver — and have his pick of destination — he’d have to finagle his release first.

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In early February of 2009, Brett Favre informed the Jets of his plans to retire. Learning from his first of three un-retirements a year earlier, when the Packers traded him to New York instead of allowing him to sign wherever he wanted, Favre cajoled his release by late April. Aged 39, Favre signed with the Vikings that August, about three weeks before the start of the season. Minnesota went 12-4, nearly reaching the Super Bowl as Favre threw 33 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (and, not counted in those regular season stats, a crippling one in field goal range in the NFC Championship Game).

As mentioned previously, Peyton Manning is no longer equipped to play full seasons. Though Favre had the wear and tear of 16.8 seasons of consecutive starts prior to joining the Vikings, he didn’t have an injury history like Manning, who missed the entire 2011 season after several neck surgeries. Earlier this month, Broncos fan site It’s All Over Fat Man published an observation from a reader, a proprioceptive researcher, about why it will be difficult for the quarterback to overcome his afflictions from this season:

The researcher concluded that Manning would again have to rework his mechanics this offseason, which, while not insurmountable, would be a hell of a challenge for the veteran.

You can see an example of Manning’s altered mechanics and diminished velocity in this comparison GIF. On a completion in early October against the Cardinals, Manning stepped into the throw. By December, he was throwing off his back foot on essentially the same route.

To most (though not all) people with working eyes, Manning’s arm strength appeared dwindled in that Monday night game versus the Bengals, and for the duration of the season.

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Many sports fans remember Suzyn Waldman breaking down on the air when it was revealed Roger Clemens would be joining the Yankees midway through the 2007 season. He was about league average for them that year. However, the pitcher had similarly joined the Astros in June of the previous season, where he’d had a solid 2.30 ERA, 194 ERA+, and 3.02 FIP. Since then, it’s been baffling to me that more aging star athletes do not rest their bodies from the attrition of the long grind of full regular seasons for the purposes of contributing to a contender when the games are more important.

In the NFL, the insane amount of injuries make mid-season acquisitions of big names a little more common. Just this year, James Harrison joined the Steelers off his couch. At 36 years old, there were times he looked as menacing as a decade ago. Commentators marveled with little skepticism. Multiple teams rang up Tony Gonzalez, but he declined. Last season, the Rams unsuccessfully tried to lure Favre out of retirement. Kickers can stick around the fringes until they’re eligible for AARP.

Our site hammered celebrated offensive mind Bruce Arians this season for failing to come up with a game-plan more creative than Ryan Lindley passes which necessitated Inspector Gadget at receiver. Couldn’t they have run the option? Hell, what about Kurt Warner? With regards to the latter, it was, unfortunately, an impossibility. Warner, who says he did have informal talks with Arizona, was ineligible because of his status on the reserve/retired list. Per PFT:

There will always be teams that are in contention in November, but suffer an injury and/or ineffectiveness at quarterback. In addition to the Cardinals this year, the Eagles and Bills also could’ve benefited from a hypothetical late-season acquisition of a rested Manning. If we’re putting head coaching egos aside, would you prefer your ship go down with Kyle Orton or Mark Sanchez, or have the possibility of being rescued by Peyton Manning?

Pragmatically, Manning would command a higher salary if he committed to playing all of next year — again, even in limited condition he’d be an upgrade for about a third of the league — and it’s not as though every team has $10 million in cap space by Thanksgiving (assorted work-arounds like incentives or two-year deals could be accomplished with enough maneuvering). If we’re under the assumption that Manning will almost assuredly not be in tip-top shape by the end of a full season, though, how important is the difference to someone who’s made a bajillion dollars, and will make a bajillion more in whatever advertising/business ventures he pursues after football? Does that outweigh a better chance at winning another Super Bowl?

In these circumstances, we’d hear a lot about the playbook and training camp reps, but my counter is that Favre had one of the best seasons of his career in Minnesota after joining the team in late August. Do we really think that Peyton Manning can’t come into a team mid-year and be more productive than a career backup?

“I think your premise that he could play better late in the year if he was more rested has a lot of merit — especially if he returned to the Broncos where he’s already got chemistry,” a former NFL team executive told me when I asked if this is all just a really dumb idea. “It’s hard to say he could just join a new team mid-season, though. Football is the ultimate team sport because the coordination of the players — the timing with the receivers and the offensive line — and making play calls would be difficult to just pick up on the fly. Perhaps there’s another way to accomplish health preservation. Maybe he misses the first 2.5 weeks of training camp. Maybe he doesn’t play at all in the preseason games. Maybe he only practices two days a week instead of four. I’m thinking aloud — I really don’t know.”

“Like I said, your premise that his health needs to be preserved is valid, and I don’t think many would disagree with it,” he continued. “It’s how you deal with it. Does he miss a chunk of the season, but is on a roster, and you try to tread water with an inexpensive backup? The drop-off from him to someone inexperienced or not as talented would be huge. If he’s joining a team mid-season, I don’t know that he could come in and start right away, and during that time his team can’t drop everything to integrate him when they have to get ready for games each week. Their quarterback has to take the reps and know the game plan. You’re limited as to how many practices you can have and how long they can last. I’m not rejecting your premise, but the solution has to be practical.”

Perhaps there would be a way for a team to implement a model akin to what the Spurs do with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili with Manning, but it’s much harder to do that with 16 games in a season than 82. Semantics of full or partial season aside, though, if Manning secretly wants out of Denver, does not plan on retiring, and wishes to have a choice of where he land, he’d need to obtain his release from the Broncos. Right now, the party line is that he’ll be back. We’ll see what happens when health examinations come out and checks are due.

[Photos via Getty and USA Today; Graphics by Michael Shamburger]