Bracket Breakdown, February 6th: UCLA Makes a Big Move, Butler and Oklahoma Rising
By Jason Lisk
This is version 2 of the Bracket Breakdown for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. I try to predict where teams will end up being seeded after they complete their schedules, including the conference tournaments, not just rely on the current results.
That means some teams, if they appear better than their records, have a chance to rise. Oklahoma is an example of this. They were not seeded as a 4 seed last week, in many that are just looking at present results. They are rated in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (and have a nice, balanced squad), and are even rated slightly higher than Kansas. We are projecting to them to finish strong and be in contention for a tournament auto bid. This week, they rise to a 3 seed, still higher than most.
Ohio State is another example. Lunardi had them as a 9 last week. I’ve had them as a 5 seed because a) I think they’ll prove to be the second best Big Ten team down the stretch, and already destroyed Maryland, and b) their RPI projects to rise over the last month closer to 20.
Other things to note:
Butler Rising: Butler’s rising after a very good week that included a road win at Marquette and a blowout of St. John’s. The Bulldogs have won 6 of 7, with the lone loss a close one at Georgetown. They would probably slide to the 5 seed line based on seeding and bracketing principles (the Big East is going to have a logjam in the 2/3/6/7 seed lines). Hmmm, Butler as a 5 seed . . .
UCLA had a really good week: The Bruins were in deep trouble after a rough non-conference in which they lost all five to potential tourney teams. They started the Pac-12 with two losses. They’ve won 6 of 8, though, including wins over Utah and Stanford in the last eight days. They move into my projected field as an 11 seed.
Sad news on Briante Weber: VCU’s Briante Weber is out for the rest of the year. He led the team in assists and was one of the best stealers in the game. VCU would project to a 4 based on potential resumé, but how will they respond without Weber? I bumped them down one seed line with that uncertainty.
First eight out: The full strongracket is strongelow (conference auto strongids projected with a +, play-in game with a *). My eight just on the outside are St. Mary’s, Purdue, St. John’s, Florida, BYU, Davidson, NC State, Illinois. Not listed? Connecticut, who had a disastrous week, and now looks like they might have to win the conference tournament to defend their title in the Big Dance.