Bracket Breakdown, February 22: Iowa and Illinois Right on the Cut Line

Selection Sunday is three weeks away. I have been doing my projections looking forward, and still continue to do that, but as we get closer, the results are piling up and my projections will be more in line with where I think teams would be seeded today.

I really only had 6 teams that I considered for a “last four” spot that did not get in. Those six were, in order: Iowa, Texas A&M, BYU, Miami, Tulsa, and Green Bay. Several others have significant work, in the form of a big upset or a good result in the conference tournament.

The #1 seeds are shaping up as an interesting battle. You have the Gonzaga situation (only loss to another top team in overtime on the road), and the Kansas situation (ranked highly in RPI, but 10-5 against teams I had under consideration, versus 8-1 or better for others). Kentucky is a lock, and then there are several that have great records, and Duke, who has the most “great” wins.

I’m staying with my recent projections: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, and Wisconsin.