Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas Should Play Under The Franchise Tag and Look to Free Agency in 2016
By Jason Lisk
The franchise tag deadline has come, with limited action from NFL teams in 2015.
It’s been mainly pass catchers and pass rushers, as Dez Bryant of Dallas, Demaryius Thomas of Denver, Justin Houston of Kansas City, and Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Giants have received the official franchise player designation. The only other player to get the tag was New England placekicker Stephen Gostkowski.
Players bristle at receiving the franchise tag designation, because they want the larger signing bonus that comes with a long-term deal. It artificially holds down the value, as any deal done before the next season (July 15th is the deadline for player and team to reach a longer deal) will be done with the explicit pressure of “Oh well, we can just pay you X amount if your demands are too high.”
In the cases of Dez and Demaryius, though, it might be a calculated risk worth taking. Dez Bryant turns 27 in November. Demaryius Thomas turns 28 on Christmas Day. Both are very much in their primes. They have a couple of ways of looking at it.
One: Take the franchise tag amount of just over $12 million, avoid voluntary offseason drills and OTA’s, then sign the tender by July 15. Hit the market next year, still in prime years, and get a bigger contract.
The salary cap will go up. It’s the last year of the four-year “spend to 89% of cap” rule so some teams who have underspent will at least have public pressure to show they are trying to win. 2016 is a decent year to hit the market. Teams have the option to carry over cap space, and if it’s like this year, a lot will.
Two: Sign a long-term deal this offseason, with club leverage, probably get a little less because of the constraints of the franchise tag. And then see if you can make more in about five years on a new contract, at age 31, than the franchise tag amount at age 27-28.
I think the better option is actually the first. There’s always a risk in football. However, most of the star wide receivers at age 24 to 26 were star wide receivers at age 27 and 28. At age 31 and 32? That’s where things got more uncertain.
Here’s a list of the best receivers (by pro-football-reference’s approximate value, which I used since raw receiving numbers have shot through the roof in recent years) at similar ages.
They are still very good players a year later, but many are ineffective or out of the league by age 32. Of the 20 comps, none were out of the game a year or two years later, and other than Vincent Jackson (because of his contract dispute), they played most of the games the next year.
Plenty, like Herman Moore, Antonio Freeman, and Wes Chandler, were slowing down as they approached 30. Both players are more likely to cash in by taking the franchise money and getting a bigger contract next year than hoping for a big enough 2nd contract after their 31st birthday.
There are also other more practical reasons. For Demaryius, it’s Denver’s and Peyton Manning’s situations. Where will Denver be by 2016? It’s enough uncertainty to let that situation play out while taking the $12 million and keeping free agency in 2016 an option.
For Dez, it’s dealing with all the off-the-field tabloid nonsense. Some of it seems to be perpetuated–or at least fanned–by sources within the Dallas front office, who have expressed concerns over his behavior. Then we get a leaked police report from four years ago, or a string of incidents that weren’t really worthy of the headlines, that were dug up. A cynic might see this as trying to drive the price down. Avoid that nonsense. See what Dallas is willing to pay when the franchise tag is off the table.