When Veteran Receivers Like Brandon Marshall Go to a New Team, Their Passing Offense Gets Better, Shockingly
By Jason Lisk
Brandon Marshall is going to the New York Jets. Yeah, it’s kind of a big deal. Another desperate Jets move or a wise decision? Let’s just say this–no matter what happens, the Jets were a long way from contention. They gave up a 5th round pick, so we are in Randy Moss acquisition territory, not “Deion Branch to the Seahawks” in terms of what they gave up.
Then again, flashy move, but how have these kind of veteran receiver moves worked in the past? In the short term, generally well, with a couple of exceptions. Here’s the 10 cases most similar to Marshall, by age and prior production, to change teams at age 30, 31, or 32.
The adjusted net yards per attempt column shows the before and after arrival results for the passing offense. On average, it was a nearly half-yard improvement. All of the passing offenses improved except two that stayed basically the same: Welker to Denver (where Manning was already awesome) and Mason to Baltimore (where Kyle Boller was the opposite).
T.J. Houshmandzadeh is probably the biggest bust from this group. He was cut by Seattle a year later. However, his receiving numbers were basically identical his last year in Cincinnati and in Seattle, so the issue may have been unrealistic expectations about just what Houshmandzadeh was.
Other guys experienced revivals. Irving Fryar has some of his best years in Miami, and later with the Eagles, and that first year the numbers went up even with Scott Mitchell playing the majority of the year because of a Marino injury. Terrell Owens was transformative his first year in Philadelphia, before becoming a disruption a year later. James Lofton would eventually reach Super Bowls with Buffalo. Derrick Mason was a big part of Baltimore going to 13-3 with Steve McNair, once they moved on from Kyle Boller. Anquan Boldin still had plenty of big moments with both Baltimore and San Francisco.
The Brandon Marshall move is only costly for the Jets if they a) don’t have plenty of cap space and b) are stopping someone else from getting those starts, and c) cost themselves early draft picks. Assuming Marshall’s decline is only temporary because he was playing hurt last year, then the Jets are better today than they were before.
What about those draft picks? Most of the guys on the above list were free agent signings, three of them were traded for picks. (Keyshawn Johnson was traded for Joey Galloway).
Terrell Owens was involved in a complicated trade with Baltimore and San Francisco, but the Eagles gave up a 5th round pick and DE Brandon Whiting. Whiting started 5 games for San Francisco, and the pick became Tony Bua, who did nothing in the NFL.
Anquan Boldin was traded for a 3rd and 4th, with Baltimore getting a 5th back. That 5th round pick by Baltimore became Arthur Jones, while Arizona took Andre Roberts and Al Woods. Advantage: Baltimore.
Irving Fryar was traded for a 2nd and 3rd round pick from New England to Miami. Those picks became guard Todd Rucci, who started for 5 years in the NFL, and Joe Burch, who never made a roster. Advantage: Miami, as Fryar put up 3,190 yards and 20 TD’s, and two pro bowl appearances in Miami.