Big 12 - The #1 Conference by the RPI - Is 0-3 in the NCAA Tournament

The Big 12 has taken it on the chin in the first half of the opening Thursday action in the NCAA Tournament. The Texas loss to Butler – though the Longhorns were slight favorites in Vegas – was not completely unexpected given the team’s struggles in close games against good competition all year. The other two losses, by Iowa State and Baylor as #3 seeds, were absolute shockers.

The Big 12 came in as the highest-rated conference by the RPI. Seven of the 10 teams in the Big 12 got into the tournament, the highest ratio for any conference. All seven were in the RPI Top 50, and so every time they played (and remember, it was a true round robin), someone got a Top 50 win. And the Committee, even beyond where the RPI had them ranked, seeded them up because of all those quality wins. Everyone but Kansas was seeded equal to or higher than their RPI ranking (and Kansas was ranked 2nd overall in the RPI).

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I had more concerns coming into this week that the Big 12 was a bit of a paper tiger. That’s not to say that they didn’t have good teams. It was the best conference in terms of depth, and not having truly bad teams. Kansas State, Texas Tech and TCU were better than the bottom of the other power conferences.

But a couple of other things bothered me–

1) If this conference was so dominant, why did Kansas still win it to extend their amazing conference streak? This was not a vintage Kansas team. In fact, other than the 2004 team, Self’s first in Lawrence, and maybe the 2005 team, it probably ranked near the bottom. It’s still Kansas, so “worst” in this case still means “one of the best 12 teams in the country.” Compared to the really top Kansas teams of the past decade, it didn’t have the “fear of God” paint defenders, the veteran elite guards, or the elite scorers. This team would have been an underdog to the 2007-2008 teams and the 2010-2013 versions (as well as a fully healthy with Joel Embiid 2014 team).

Yet, they still won this league. It was a balanced league. I’m not sure there was a great team.

2) The conference didn’t really have signature wins against elite teams. Kansas got smoked by Kentucky in a mismatch. Oklahoma lost to Wisconsin by double digits. Iowa State lost to Maryland. All of those were neutral court games, like the tournament. The two best road/neutral wins were Kansas at Georgetown (a team that seemed over-seeded at 4) and Kansas over Utah in Kansas City by three, when Utah was without Jordan Loveridge.

Of course, you can say, we wouldn’t be talking about this if Baylor and Iowa State’s close games when the other way. But being in dogfights with Georgia State and UAB is not a good sign, either way. Iowa State got physically dominated by UAB. Baylor gave up a 13-0 run in the final 2:40 to lose.

I thought Oklahoma was the most dangerous team in the conference for NCAA tournament purposes, with good balance and scoring. Kansas is dealing with the health of Perry Ellis, the loss of Cliff Alexander, and a rough bracket. West Virginia is also in that region. Oklahoma State has lost 6 of 7 and will open with Oregon before likely getting Wisconsin.

The top RPI conference underperforming expectations is nothing new – I wrote about it a few years ago. The true difference between conferences is less than the measured difference from games in November and December when some teams with more cohesion have an early advantage that may disappear by March. So while overreacting to a few games with buzzer beaters is not wise, I’m not sure reacting to early games is any better. The Big 12 is not the best conference, at least in terms of how good its best teams are compared to other power conferences.