Conference Championship Games Are Silly, But the Big 12 Needs One
By Ty Duffy
College Football’s four-team playoff began last season. The Big 12 became the first odd conference out, despite having two top-six finishers. This has led the conference to reevaluate its lack of a conference title game. If the goal is getting a team into the playoff, the Big 12 should consider adding one.
We have no love for conference title games. Division alignments distort regular season schedules. The games themselves generate little interest outside the SEC and are seldom worth the trouble. But, not playing a conference title game when Ohio State did is why the Big 12 missed out.
Recency Bias: Ohio State did not close the 2014 regular season very well. After beating Michigan State, they won by one score over Minnesota. They languished before pulling away against bad Indiana and Michigan teams. Clobbering a well regarded Wisconsin 59-0, with the committee members in concert, whitewashed everything that came before.
TCU, the Big 12’s best team, crushed Iowa State 55-3 on the final Saturday. Baylor, the conference’s most deserving team, outlasted a Top 10 Kansas State by double digits. Those “statements” were muted with higher profile games going on elsewhere. For all the rigmarole the committee put itself through, it fell hard for Ohio State.
Cut and Dry: The playoff committee is not set up to make tough decisions. Ohio State offered the path of least resistance. The Big 12 did not designate a champion between Baylor and TCU. Big 12 Coaches opted not to have the conference do so, despite the obvious head to head method, so both staffs could collect conference champion bonuses. It was easier to pick Ohio State over Baylor/TCU than to pick between Baylor and TCU. Not surprisingly, that’s what the committee did.
Strength of Schedule: Baylor’s OOC schedule is beside the point. Look at the resumes after the 12 regular season games. Ohio State beat Michigan State. They beat Minnesota by a touchdown on the road. Baylor and TCU both had better wins. They both had a less damning loss. We were debating whether Minnesota should count as a good OOC win for TCU. The Big 12 was a better conference than the Big 10. But, Ohio State getting that extra Top 15 game made the strength of schedule a discussion. Ohio State won the discussion.
The Big 12 undercut both Baylor and TCU by failing to choose between them. Fairly or not, the committee proved there is no way for humans to avoid recency bias. The Big 12 is not putting its teams in position to capitalize on it. Sure, a conference championship game could be a pitfall for an undefeated Big 12 team. The conference has produced exactly one since 2006.
A Big 12 conference championship game, with 10 teams, may be silly and arbitrary. So is the playoff selection process. No divisions. Take the top two teams. A Baylor vs. TCU rematch winner in 2014 would have been in the playoff.