Bad NFL Draft Evaluator Turned ESPN Analyst Thinks Shane Ray Drops to Third or Fourth Round

ESPN analyst and former Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik was a guest on Mike and Mike this morning. The topic of Shane Ray, the potential top-10 Draft pick who was cited for marijuana possession during a traffic stop on Monday, came up. An incredulous Dominik thinks that the incident will cause the linebacker to drop to the third or fourth round this weekend. Taking this piece-by-piece:

1) NFL players, and everyone, should just be allowed to smoke weed in peace. Continued enforcement of un-sensible policy is a bad look for the league and our society. Ray was not cited for driving while impaired, nor was he in possession of a mass quantity. Our police officers and legal system have more important matters with which to devote their resources.

2) This is not to say Ray gets a free pass. I understand the argument that, while the drug policy is un-sensible, it’s profoundly dumb to have weed in your car three days before your presumptive draft date. However, if you were able to get a top-10 talent in the late first round or anytime in the second because of character concerns over marijuana, that would seem, to me, to be a market inefficiency. (A sustained foot injury is a more legitimate concern.)

3) Which brings us to Mark Dominik. There’s a reason he’s speaking on ESPN this week and not making the final preparations on his draft board. To the extent that there are 21st century general managers with a less impressive body of work in the draft, it wouldn’t take two full hands to count. According to Pro Football Reference, the list of players that Dominik drafted in his tenure as Bucs GM from 2009-2013 includes just six of 36 picks who started 10 or more games last season, anywhere in the league.

In 2010, the Bucs had two early second round picks, which were used on Brian Price, a DT who barely played, and Arrelious Benn, who has never panned out at wide receiver. Rob Gronkowski went a few picks later. Broncos safety TJ Ward, who has made two Pro Bowls, was also picked between Price and Benn, as was Zane Beadles, an offensive lineman who made the Pro Bowl in 2012.

In 2011, Dominik took Adrian Clayborn at 20th overall. The next three defensive linemen who went in the first round were Phil Taylor of the Browns, Cameron Jordan of the Saints, and Muhammad Wilkerson of the Jets. Taylor has been hurt or he would have been much better, and the other two were way better picks — Clayborn did not pan out.

Also in 2011, Dominik took Luke Stocker at tight end in fourth round. The next player to go at that position, later in that round, was Julius Thomas. In the fifth round, the Buccaneers took safety Ahmad Black, three picks before Richard Sherman. In 2012, they picked Mark Barron (who was traded last year for a fourth and sixth round pick) seventh overall. Luke Kuechly went ninth. Other defensive players drafted right after include Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox.

In 2013, the Bucs did not have a first round pick because Dominik traded it for Darrelle Revis, who spent just one season with the team before he was released. Cornerback Johnthan Banks was the second round pick; according to PFF, he has struggled. The team picked quarterback quarterback Mike Glennon in the third round. Though the book hasn’t completely closed on him, he started just five games last season, and none of the team’s final seven. Tampa is presumed to be drafting another quarterback first overall this year in Jameis Winston. For a fourth round pick, William Gholston has panned out okay — he started nine games last season.

To be fair, the 2012 draft did include Lavonte David, probably Dominik’s best value pick, in the second round. But when only six of the 36 draft picks from 2009-2013 — players who should mostly be in their prime now — started at least 10 games anywhere in the league last season, it’s fair to question the wisdom of his draft analysis this week.