Re-Drafting the 2011 NFL Draft: J.J. Watt or Cam Newton? Richard Sherman Goes Much Higher
By Jason Lisk
The 2011 Draft was the first to take place during a lockout, and the first where the players had their contracts slotted under the new Rookie Wage Scale. It was also, as we can see below, a very good draft. That’s particularly true on the defensive line and pass rushers, with some top end cornerbacks, some elite receivers, and yes, even three starting caliber quarterbacks.
Most of these players are just signing–or will be signing their big free agent deals soon. It’s a good opportunity to look back at that draft, and also look forward. This isn’t just an exercise in “who was best?” but a look at how teams, with knowledge of how their teams would look in 2015, and a general picture of how the players transitioned to the NFL (so they can avoid the Blaine Gabberts and Christian Ponders).
In re-drafting, then, I kept the same order of the picks from the first round in 2011, but tried to fit team needs to the picks as much as possible.
1. Carolina Panthers–QB Cam Newton (1st)
Watt or Newton? I think it’s a reasonable position that more than half of the teams, if they could draft again, would take Watt 1st overall, certainly all those that have a decent starting option at QB. Carolina, alas, is one of the exception, because they would have nothing on offense, as Newton covers up a bad offensive line and hides plenty of warts.
2. Denver Broncos–DE J.J. Watt (11th)
Denver, meanwhile, has Peyton Manning. He and J.J. Watt can now star in dancing videos together. And you know what, if you are Denver, you adapt your defense to take Watt, even though Miller was a great pick.
3. Buffalo Bills–CB Richard Sherman (154th)
Dareus was another decent pick, but he’s a luxury on this defense. The pick could go offensive line with Tyron Smith, but instead, we’ll load up with another big corner and big media draw to combat the New England Patriots.
4. Cincinnati Bengals–WR A.J. Green (4th)
Would Cincinnati stay with the same pick? You could make a strong case for a pass rusher here, but are any a perfect fit? We know Green can make the offense look much better.
5. Arizona Cardinals–OT Tyron Smith (9th)
The offensive line needs major help. The defense was overall pretty stout, but lacked pass rushers in the 3-4 scheme and had to create blitz opportunities to generate pressure. Justin Houston would make sense. So would a young stud left tackle to anchor the offense.
6. Atlanta Falcons–OLB Justin Houston (70th)
Atlanta had traded up to get Julio Jones here, and that would still be in play. The defense has been a disaster, and even with picking Vic Beasley as a speed rusher, let’s just pair him with local product from Georgia, and the best pass rusher in this draft, Justin Houston.
7. San Francisco 49ers–WR Julio Jones (6th)
San Francisco needs help on offense, and is probably too concerned about Aldon Smith’s off-the-field issues that have since come to light to continue down that path with so many other stars on the board.
8. Tennessee Titans–DE Muhammad Wilkerson (30th)
A need pick, but while Wilkerson may not be flashy, he’s the best non-J.J. Watt 3-4 defensive end available, and we know that the Titans will also have a hole in losing Jurrell Casey in this draft.
9. Dallas Cowboys–OLB Von Miller (2nd)
The Cowboys lose out on their star tackle. So they add a flashy all-around defensive star, and hope he can stay out of trouble in Big D.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars–CB Patrick Peterson (5th)
Can you name a Jacksonville cornerback from 2014? If you did, congratulations for being a member of the Jaxson De Ville Fan Club.
11. Houston Texans–DT Marcell Dareus (3rd)
Major need on the line with Watt gone, and Dareus can move inside and play nose tackle or defensive tackle depending on what you want to run.
12. Minnesota Vikings–DE Robert Quinn (14th)
Minnesota jumps on the best pure 4-3 defensive end in the draft, to pair with Everson Griffen.
13. Detroit Lions–DT Jurrell Casey (77th)
The Lions lost Suh to free agency, and Casey, as it has turned out, would have been a more consistent and better pick than Fairley, who was the original choice here.
14. St. Louis Rams–OT Nate Solder (17th)
The Rams acquired Nick Foles, so doubtful they go QB here with other options. The main need on this team is a major upgrade on the line. Solder should be healthy again in 2015.
15. Miami Dolphins–CB Chris Harris, Jr. (UDFA)
The only player who was originally undrafted on this list, Harris has been one of the best cornerbacks in the game over the last two years. The Dolphins also have needs on the line, but do they want to go down the Mike Pouncey road?
16. Washington Redskins–OLB Ryan Kerrigan (16th)
Washington goes with Kerrigan over Aldon Smith based on off-the-field and future suspension concerns.
17. New England Patriots–OT Anthony Castonzo (22nd)
Well, without Solder, Castonzo is a pretty good option.
18. San Diego Chargers–OLB Aldon Smith (7th)
The Chargers need playmakers on defense. Smith’s fall due to off-the-field issues ends.
19. New York Giants– DE Cameron Jordan (24th)
Jordan is not an elite pass rusher and probably fits better as a 3-4 end, but will shore up the Giants’ major need at run defense and better line play.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers–C Rodney Hudson (55th)
The Buccaneers have needs all over, including the offensive line. Hudson has been one of the best centers in football over the last two years.
21. Cleveland Browns–QB Colin Kaepernick (36th)
Kaepernick slid due to team needs, but the Browns are one team that should definitely take a quarterback. Having lived through a Dalton stinker in person last year, they say no thanks and take a chance on the mobile QB.
22. Indianapolis Colts– G/C Mike Pouncey (15th)
The Colts add to the offensive line with a versatile player who can play both center and guard.
23. Philadelphia Eagles–RB DeMarco Murray (71st)
If Kelly was around for this re-draft, he would have been trying to trade up to get Kaepernick after missing out on his boy Mariota. Instead, he gets his new running back anyway, after having a strong debate over whether the pick should be Murray or Owen Marecic.
24. New Orleans Saints– C Jason Kelce (191st)
Kelce was hurt last year, so this has some risk, but the Saints have to address the interior line, where pressure really affected Brees.
25. Seattle Seahawks– LB K.J. Wright (99th)
Seattle gets their man, but has to do it much earlier than in the real draft, when James Carpenter was the pick here.
26. Kansas City Chiefs–OLB Jabaal Sheard (37th)
Chiefs fans are screaming for Cobb here, as he is somehow still available. Cobb screams back, no thanks. The pick is a replacement for Justin Houston, as Sheard is undervalued by the public and a decent option at 3-4 OLB.
27. Baltimore Ravens– WR Randall Cobb (64th)
Cobb finally gets taken, sliding farther than some might suspect. Cobb paired with Steve Smith would be fun.
28. New Orleans Saints–RB Mark Ingram (28th)
The Saints traded up for this pick originally, and as fate would have it, they probably retain the running back here.
29. Chicago Bears — S Rahim Moore (45th)
Moore has been inconsistent, but has been the best of a bad safety lot, and is an upgrade over the Bears’ safeties.
30. New York Jets – QB Andy Dalton (35th)
Jason McIntyre wanted a quarterback. So here you go. Dalton dropped because so many teams in the picks before likely wouldn’t be considering a QB or think of Dalton as an upgrade. You’re welcome, Jets.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers– DE/DT Corey Liuget (18th)
Pittsburgh needs better interior line options, and while Liuget hasn’t been a superstar, he has started 61 games over the last four years.
32. Green Bay Packers– TE Julius Thomas (129th)
A luxury pick for Green Bay, when the main need is inside linebacker–and I’m not sure they would be excited about Mason Foster. So Green Bay just adds the best receiving option available.
Next Out: Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, Torrey Smith, Stephen Paea, Clint Boling, Marcus Gilchrist, Joe Barksdale, Shane Vereen, Derek Newton, Mason Foster
First Round Picks Who Didn’t Quite Make the Cut Four Years Later: QB Jake Locker, QB Blaine Gabbert, QB Christian Ponder, CB Prince Amukamara, DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Phil Taylor, G Danny Watkins, T James Carpenter, WR Jon Baldwin, CB Jimmy Smith, T Gabe Carimi, DE Cameron Heyward, T Derek Sherrod