Ranking the MLB Ace Pitchers, Part 2
By Mike Cardillo
Last week, we began a two-man head-to-head draft to rank the top MLB pitchers. If you read the full-sized print, our goal is to take pitchers who we would want for the next 12 months, not five years from now, and not just based on the past. This precludes some with longer-term injuries from being listed.
Here was Part I, where we went from Clayton Kershaw to Stephen Strasburg. So check that out before you lodge your complaints about who we totally forgot.
*****
Pick No. 16 (MC) — Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves
Baseball produces a lot of quirky stats and assorted miscellania. How about Miller? As a rookie with St. Louis in 2013 he allowed the first batter to reach and then retired the next 27 in order. Earlier this month he took a carried a no-hitter for 8 2/3 innings vs. the Marlins. As John Sterling might surmise with a hearty laugh, that’s baseball. As a Cardinal, Miller was another name in a very solid rotation. Now in Atlanta he is profiling as that clear No. 1 guy, having allowed 36 hits in 60 innings.
Pick No. 17 (JL) –Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Arrieta has found his stride in Chicago after struggling in Baltimore at the start of his career. Consider just how big a transformation it has been. In Baltimore from age 24 to 27, Arrieta had a 5.43 ERA in 69 career games. Since moving to the North Side, he has posted an impressive 2.84 ERA, which matches up nearly perfectly with his FIP (2.81), showing that with the Cubs, he has been among the best starters in the NL. He carried his 2014 success into this season and has quietly emerged as one of the best in baseball.
Pick No. 18 (MC) — Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
In 2002 the Pirates landed the No. 1 overall draft pick and took the immortal Bryan Bullington. He lasted all of 58 2/3 innings in the Majors before latching with a team in Japan. Nine years later history has yet to repeat itself through Cole, the No. 1 pick in 2011. The UCLA product is rounding into a solid No. 1 guy with good numbers across the board and an ERA hovering at 2.05.
Pick No. 19 (JL) — Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
Who is the Cardinals’ “ace” with Adam Wainwright out? Well, they have two solid choices and I’ll go with the younger Wacha, who is still only 23. While we can criticize the vagaries that go into “pitcher wins”, such as needing to go a certain number of innings, not having the bullpen blow a lead, etc., it’s hard to ignore Wacha’s 7 wins in 9 starts, to go with a 1.83 ERA. His strikeout rate is down early in 2015, but I expect that to move back toward his career averages.
Pick No. 20 (MC) — Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
Is there a difference between a No. 1 starter and an “ace.” Is it semantics? Right now I’d feel more comfortable terming Pineda as a No. 1 than an “ace” only due to a lack of long-term track record (due to his injury history) or consistency. On May 10 Pineda struck out 16 Orioles. In his next two starts he allowed 12 runs (nine earned) in 11+ innings. Pineda could flirt with a no-hitter or toss up a clunker … which evens out over the course of 30+ starts — less so in the playoffs. Hold off on the pine tar jokes, please.
Pick No. 21 (JL) — Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
The Apocalypse is upon us, as I’ll just go with both Cardinals’ starters. Lynn has been very good over the last three years, and the 28 year old appears to be on his way to yet another Lance Lynn season in 2015. Even though the W-L record isn’t where it has been, that appears to just be the function of a short season. His FIP is better than it has been, and it was already at 3.36 over the previous three years.
Pick No. 22 (MC) — Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
This in-depth post explains a lot of what makes Richards successful, ie a good fastball and sharp slider. The 27-year-old righty is well ahead of the more recognized Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson in the Halos rotation.
Pick No. 23 (JL) — Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
Rookie of the year back in 2013. Stuff galore. Followed up his rookie year by striking out 70 in 51 innings before his season ended with the Tommy John surgery. He’s going to resume throwing live in extended spring training this week. He might be back on the mound by early July. Given that he would easily be top 10 without the injury, and there are no reported setbacks, getting Fernandez for 11 months is worth the chance here at No. 23.
Pick No. 24 (MC) — Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
Lisk broke the ice taking an injury risk in Fernandez. Assuming Tanaka’s arm doesn’t snap in half he’s a strikeout-plus, sub-1.00 WHIP guy. On stuff alone, Tanaka goes much higher but the lingering doubts about his right arm holding up aren’t going to subside any time soon.
Pick No. 25 (JL) — Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
Zimmermann falls in the very good and very consistent category, and kind of gets lost on a loaded Nationals staff. He’s posted a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the last four seasons, and is tracking for a fifth. He’s finished 7th and 5th in Cy Young voting in the National League the last two years.
Pick No. 26 (MC) — Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
Perception-wise and stuff-wise, Ventura screams out A-C-E. In actuality his 4.64 ERA and other peripherals, saying nothing of his feuds with Adam Eaton and Mike Trout, are rather pedestrian. That said, Ventura did pitch twice in the World Series last year and in any given game you wouldn’t mind throwing him out there and taking your chances. Perhaps Lisk psyched me out on this pick.
Pick No. 27 (JL) — James Shields, San Diego Padres
Big Game James is a misnomer (36 ER in 59.1 postseasons innings), and I really didn’t want to take the 33-year old. But, he just continues to be solid. And you would probably win some trivia money based on the current 2015 leader in strikeouts per 9 innings being James Shields.
Pick No. 28 (MC) — Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
Fitting the other guy the Rays got in the Shields-Wil Myers trade goes here. Odorizzi is yet another young hurler to benefit from pitching in Tampa, or specifically St. Petersburg, Fla. One odd state on Odorizzi is he’s in the Top 10 in flyball outs, but less than a strikeout an inning. Maybe this makes him more of a 1.5 starter than an ace, but he’s young, durable and pitching well this year so let’s take him at 28 and be happy.
Pick No. 29 (JL) — Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
I took Lester for his pickoff moves and general sexiness.
Pick No. 30 (MC) — A.J. Burnett, Pittsbugh Pirates
Now 38, Burnett is hardly a No. 1 starter, but can be an ace on any given day — maybe he’ll give us another 10 walk no-hitter or something. As of Wednesday afternoon he leads all of baseball in ERA at 1.37. What a time to be alive, as it were.
Honorable mention: Jacob deGrom, Danny Salazar, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Carrasco, Nick Martinez
Teams with zero selections: Arizona, Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Texas, Toronto
Teams with multiple selections: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals (3), St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs