Jordan Spieth: One Percent Chance of Winning Golf's Grand Slam This Season

Bad news for Jordan Spieth fans who are hoping he wins the final two majors this year and does the impossible of completing the modern day grand slam in one season. Neil Paine at FiveThirtyEight says Spieth has a 1% chance of winning those final two majors, The Open Championship and the PGA Championship, this season.

"No matter how you cut it, the odds of Spieth finishing off the Grand Slam are still fairly low — about 1 percent, if the probabilities above are any kind of guide."

That really should come as no surprise to anyone who follows or knows anything about the sport of golf. No one in the modern era of golf has won the grand slam of the Masters, U.S. Open, The Open Championship, and PGA Championship in a single season. Bobby Jones won a grand slam in 1930 that, at the time, consisted of: The Open Championship, the U.S. Open, the U.S. Amateur, and the British Amateur. A very impressive feat for sure, but nothing compared to the four major tournaments of the modern era.

The math used in coming to that conclusion consists of several variables that include: adjusted betting odds from Bovada, past performances by winners of two majors in a row, and Bill Barnwell’s Z-score on relative dominance.

FiveThirtyEight also estimates that Spieth will win just under 12 major tournaments in his career, which would put him in the company of Walter Hagen (11) and ahead of greats like Ben Hogan and Gary Player (9). Should Spieth finish with 11 or 12 majors, he would finish behind only Tiger Woods (14), and Jack Nickluas (18).

I believe the competition today is greater than it ever has been. Hell, Spieth is still the second ranked player in the world behind Rory McIlroy, who has won four major championships and is the defending champion of The Open Championship and PGA Championship, but if this math is taken seriously, Spieth’s career will be a very impressive one.

Golf wins again.