PGA Championship Preview: Odds, Favorites, and Picks

The 2015 PGA Championship, held at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin from August 13-16, should provide all the excitement golf fans could possibly want from the final major tournament of the season. The Pete Dye course last hosted the PGA Championship in 2010, which was won by Martin Kaymer in a playoff against Bubba Watson, and before that in 2004 when Vijay Singh won in a playoff against Justin Leonard and Chris DiMarco. So, two times a host and two memorable playoff finishes. If history tells us anything, we’ll get to see something similar this year.

If you aren’t familiar with the course, here’s a flyover of every hole at Whistling Straits.

Odds: +550
Tee Times: Round 1 – 1:20 PM, Round 2 – 8:05 AM
Grouping: Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson

Jordan Spieth is the obvious favorite coming into the 2015 PGA Championship. He’s won two majors this year, the Masters and U.S. Open, and finished just outside a playoff at The Open Championship. The course sets up nicely for Spieth, who isn’t one of the longest drivers on Tour, but has a solid putting stroke on the greens that gives him a leg up on most of his competitors. Spieth is second in strokes gained from tee-to-green and seventh in strokes gained putting, he is first in birdies per round and scoring average (68.8). The main thing that sets Spieth apart is his ability to finish, and while he wasn’t able to do so at The Open Championship this year, he gave himself a shot after making a huge birdie putt on the 16th hole.

Odds: +900
Tee Times: Round 1 – 1:20 PM, Round 2 – 8:05 AM
Grouping: Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson

Rory McIlroy is the second obvious favorite, although after suffering an ankle injury and having not played since before The Open Championship makes it hard to know exactly how Rory’s form will actually be, and whether or not the defending champ will be able to compete with the field. Sure we’ve seen videos of Rory smashing his driver around and dancing on one leg, but is he really ready? Let’s just hope we don’t see a Tiger-like moment that ends with McIlroy re-aggravating his injury.

McIlroy is confident though.

"Via the Daily Mail: “If anything, my ankle feels even better when I swing hard at the ball,” he said. “I didn’t miss it as much as you probably think,” he told Sportsmail, in between practice strokes. “Yes, of course, it would have been lovely to be there. But you go to the gym each morning and you see people going about their daily lives and it does give you a sense of perspective. You realise it’s a long way from being the end of the world.” “I took seven weeks off at the end of last year and came back and finished second in Abu Dhabi but this is obviously a world of difference,” he said. “It’s one thing coming back at a regular event in the Middle East but here it’s a major and I’m the defending champion.” "

What do you think 2013 PGA Championship winner Jason Dufner?

Dustin Johnson could very likely win this week, but it’s more likely he’ll hold a share of the lead on Friday and then watch as the field runs away from him on Saturday and Sunday. Johnson’s putting has always been a problem for him, and if it’s not working this week, he’ll fade. Hopefully, Johnson gives himself a shot like he had at the U.S. Open, only this time around, the greens won’t be bumpy.

Jason Day is going to win a major tournament, the question is when? Day has been at the top of major tournament leaderboards on Sundays for a while now, but has yet to collect a win. The Aussie has won three tournaments this season and finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open and Open Championship. He had a nice weekend at the WGC-Bridgestone where he finished tied for 12th with rounds of 69-69-70-69, and appears to be ready and in good form.

Odds: +1400
Tee Times: Round 1 – 7:45 AM, Round 2 – 1:00 PM
Grouping: Paul Casey, Jim Furyk

Bubba Watson, who famously protested the long drive competition last year, saying “I’m there to play golf, not hit it far,” and chose to hit a 3-iron instead of acting like a grown man and smashing a driver and walking off without a word, played along with the competition this year. For a man who is one of the least liked on the course, you’d think he’d like to at least win over a few fans.

After the second round at the WGC-Invitational, Watson told reporters:

"“Yes, I’m going to hit it. It made big drama last year for no reason because I stated my opinion. It’s sad that my opinion is obviously wrong at everything I do, but, yes, I’m going to hit the tee shot because I understand it means more to do that than worry about my opinion.”"

Ironically, a guy who says he’s “there to play golf, not hit it far,” hits it far.

Quit whining and hit the damn ball as far as you can Bubba. Watson’s long drive missed the fairway.

Could Justin Rose hold onto a Sunday lead just once? Rose faltered again with a lead on Sunday, this time at the WGC-Bridgestone. After the round, Rose told reporters:

"“I’m playing better than anyone in the world right now tee-to-green. So hopefully, it’s a big-boy golf course next week and the long game really helps me out. I just (need to) putt a little bit better and give myself another chance.”"

Well Rose, Whistling Straits is a “big-boy golf course” in the sense that it’s hosting a major tournament, but isn’t Chambers Bay, and has hosted two pretty exciting PGA Championships before. If Rose hits it as well as he did this week off the tee and can actually manage to make a few putts, he definitely has a shot.

Odds: +2000
Tee Times: Round 1 – 8:05 AM, Round 2 – 1:20 PM
Grouping: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson

Rickie Fowler could also collect his first major at thePGA Championship, although it depends on which version of Rickie shows up. Fowler has been up and down all season and looked to be on pace to do good things in the U.S. Open and Open Championship after winning The Players Championship, but he missed the cut at the Chambers Bay course, while playing with Tiger, and finished tied for 30th at St. Andrews. Fowler did finish second behind Troy Merritt at the Quicken Loans National two weeks ago, and had a good week at the Bridgestone, but with a field as loaded as this, it’s more than likely Rickie will find himself in the top 10 instead of at the top.

This is the last chance for Adam Scott to get a major tournament win with that belly putter. Scott ranks 178th in strokes gained putting, and hasn’t won a tournament since the Crowne Plaza Invitational in May of 2014. His major tournament win came at the 2013 Masters. In that time, he has collected 18 top 10 finishes in 39 tournaments, so I guess including him near the top is a pretty solid bet.

Henrik Stenson finished tied for sixth at the WGC-Bridgestone last week and has four top five finishes this season, all of which came early in the season before the Masters. Stenson has no major tournament wins, but has finished tied for third in the last two PGA Championships. Maybe he’ll snap another on his knee like he did earlier this year at the Masters. That’s always fun to see.

Odds: +3300
Tee Times: Round 1 – 7:25 AM, Round 2 – 12:40 PM
Grouping: Sergio Garcia, Bill Haas

Louis Oosthuizen has had, by all means, a phenomenal year. Oosthuizen has six top 10 finishes that include a second place finish at the U.S. Open and The Open Championship. While Oosthuizen does nothing spectacularly amazing on the course, he seems to have found his groove in the two majors leading up to the PGA Championship. Including him as a top 10 pick is very reasonable.

Oosthuizen also won the long drive competition last year with a drive of 340 yards.

***

Notably missing from the top 10 Vegas favorites list are: Phil Mickelson +4000, Sergio Garcia +4000, Jim Furyk +4000, Martin Kaymer +4000, and Zach Johnson +4000.

Also missing is Tiger Woods (+4000), but we won’t get into that.

My picks: Spieth, Day, Watson, Mickelson, Rose. I also like Na, but he hasn’t finished higher than 12th in a major this season.

[Odds via OddsShark, pics via Getty]