College Football 2015 Preview Top Five: Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, Auburn

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Reg. Season Records: 11-1, 12-0, 12-0, 6-6

SRS Rankings: 2, 12, 13, 42

Talking Point: Everyone loves Ohio State. All 27 media members in our survey had the defending champion Buckeyes returning to the College Football Playoff. There’s no real reason to pick against them, beyond that degree of groupthink raising alarms.

Why To Like Them: Ohio State was young in 2014. Their national title was a bit premature. 2015 was the year the Buckeyes were supposed to be loaded. On offense: Heisman favorites at QB and RB and four starters back on the offensive line. On defense: athleticism and depth in all three phases. Last year’s young contributors get older, wiser and better.

Why Not To Like Them: There’s some transition on offense, losing star coordinator Tom Herman. They lose a huge big play threat in WR Devin Smith, who averaged an absurd 28 yards/catch and 19 yards/target without a clear replacement. Good teams had success on the ground against them last year. That’s about it…

Schedule: Benign. The Buckeyes may play one ranked opponent, Michigan State. That game is at home. It may not be that close. They have road trips to Virginia Tech and Michigan. Potentially tricky conference games – Penn State, Minnesota – are in Columbus. Their other three road games are Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois. There’s a reason the over/under is 11 wins.

Throwing Darts: Even in Ohio State’s “tough games” they will be two touchdown favorites. Barring a huge upset, it’s hard seeing anything but a 12-0 regular season, a quick dispatching of Wisconsin in the title game and a return to the playoff. The Buckeyes could get exposed. But, it will take someone outside the conference to do that.

Random Alum: Richard Lewis

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Reg. Season Records: 11-1, 11-1, 11-1, 11-1

SRS Rankings: 3, 3, 1, 1

Talking Point: Bama boredom. Success at Alabama under Nick Saban is a national title. Failure is coming a few plays away from a national title. The Crimson Tide reload every year. Their worst SRS finish since 2008 is 6th nationally. There are concerns. Bringing in the nation’s best recruiting class every February means you should not worry too hard about them. It’s not clear why ever erratic Auburn is getting that much more media love.

Why To Like Them: Alabama brings back perhaps the nation’s best defensive line and one of its best linebacking corps. The secondary has its share of talent as well. That, Derrick Henry and a talented offensive line will take a team a long way, even in the SEC West. For every question, the team has multiple, well-regarded answers.

Why Not To Like Them: It’s worrisome no one has won the QB job yet. Though Alabama ranked 12th in yards/attempt with a senior stopgap at the helm. The Tide lose their top three receivers from last year, notably Amari Cooper. Alabama also loses key contributors on defense, such as Xzavier Dickson and Landon Collins.

Schedule: Tough. The SEC West is the SEC West. Alabama adds on Tennessee and Georgia (away) from the East. The Iron Bowl is away from home. Texas A&M could be another tricky away trip. Their easiest conference game may be playing Mississippi State in Starkville. Wisconsin is a big non-conference name. But, we’re guessing Saban knows how to defend a traditional power rushing attack.

Throwing Darts: Alabama has been nothing but consistent. However the season shakes out, it’s hard seeing Alabama entering the Iron Bowl without a playoff bid on the line. What happens there should be interesting.

Random Alum: Rece Davis

3. Oregon Ducks

Reg. Season Records: 11-1, 10-2, 11-1, 10-2

SRS Rankings: 1, 2, 2, 5

Talking Point: Is anyone talking about Oregon? Sure, the Ducks lose Marcus Mariota. Yes, they are one more year into the Mark Helfrich era. But, Oregon is on par with Alabama in terms of consistent excellence. They have finished outside the SRS Top 6 nationally once since 2007. That was 2008, when Oregon went 10-3 and crashed to a disastrous 14th. The Ducks don’t seem to be in “trust until proven otherwise” territory, though the track record says they should be.

Why To Like Them: Oregon brings back a top-tier tailback in Royce Freeman, their top four wide receivers and, though they lose two All-Americans on the line, return five players with starting experience. On defense, most of the front seven is back, including DeForest Buckner. The secondary, while young, got a lot of experience last year.

Schedule: Could be worse, but it’s no cake walk. After the bye week, Oregon plays at Arizona State on a Thursday night, Cal, at Stanford and USC. The Ducks also play Michigan State in East Lansing at the start of the season. They do avoid Rich Rodriguez, which will be a welcome respite.

Throwing Darts: Oregon may not be quite as efficient as last year, and the Pac 12 is a slog. They should be favorites to win the conference. Whether they can do so cleanly enough to reach the playoff is a question.

Random Alum: Kaitlin Olson

No. 4 Baylor Bears

Reg. Season Records: 11-1, 11-1, 7-5, 9-3

SRS Rankings: 11, 9, 17, 12

Why To Like Them: Baylor brings back a 1,000-yard RB and two 1,000-yard WRs. Oh, and they are fourth in the nation with all five offensive linemen coming back and 106 career starts. They may have the best defensive front in the Big 12, headlined by shirt averse Shawn Oakman and Andrew Billings.

Why Not To Like Them: Baylor will have a new starting QB. Though the aforementioned supporting cast and Briles’ track record offer you a number of reasons to be high on Seth Russell. The Bears have all four starters in the secondary coming back. Though, that may not be such a great thing. Baylor finished 96th in yards/attempt against last year. A large part of that was allowing 34 passes of 30 yards or longer, ranking dead last in FBS.

Schedule: Not so daunting. Baylor gets five Big 12 home games. They play no one non-conference. They get West Virginia and Oklahoma in Waco. The downside: road trips to Kansas State, to Oklahoma State and to TCU in November.

Throwing Darts: Baylor runs the table, or comes very close. The conference and the playoff hinges on the TCU result.

Random Alum: Crystal Bernard

No. 5 Auburn Tigers

Reg. Season Records: 8-4, 11-1, 3-9, 7-5

SRS Rankings: 10, 6, 70, 46

Talking Point: Hype. A number of media people are high on Auburn. Two thirds of our college football media survey respondents had Auburn reaching the playoff, three times the number that had Alabama. Rational reaction to the coaching upgrade and surrounding talent? Or, pure Bama fatigue?

Why To Like Them: Fashion maven Gus Malzahn is coaching the offense. Auburn has a well-regarded quarterback, last year’s backup Jeremy Johnson. The Tigers have two former five-star tailbacks. Expect abundant booming. Coach Boom Will Muschamp takes over the defense. He inherits what, on paper, looks like some quality talent and depth in the front seven.

Why Not To Like Them: TBL Top 50 WR Duke Williams has had an interesting offseason. If he has not found his center, Auburn’s receiver depth chart looks iffy. The Tigers face transition in the middle of the offensive line. On defense, they look thin in the secondary.

Schedule: Not easy, but easier than last year. Games against Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama are at home this year. Louisville is the only non body-bag in the non-conference schedule. There’s a rather brutal four game stretch: at Arkansas, Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia. Possible trap game against plucky Kentucky on a Thursday night before that.

Throwing Darts: The Tigers roar to a 6-0 start, with all the hype. The back half of the schedule – containing that sinister four game stretch and the Iron Bowl – determines their finish. Auburn could be among the nation’s four best teams. But will that be enough to get them through the SEC West and into the playoff?

Random Alum: Tim Cook