Robert Griffin is Not a Lost Cause, as Evidenced by Jim Plunkett and Kerry Collins
By Jason Lisk
Robert Griffin III has likely played his last game with the Washington Redskins, just four years after being drafted as the franchise savior, and three years after taking the league by storm as a rookie.
Griffin’s early rise and precipitous fall is virtually unprecedented in NFL history. We’ve seen players fall off after injuries. Daunte Culpepper’s knee injury in 2005 basically ended what had been a very good five season stretch. Further back, Bert Jones rose to league MVP in 1976, before struggling to stay on the field after age 25.
Plenty of first round picks have turned out to be busts. Pretty much none of them, though, had a stretch like Robert Griffin as a rookie. It’s not completely unprecedented, though, that a first round pick played well early, but issues or coaching changes or circumstances led to the player being gone from that franchise within five years.
Using the Adjusted Net Yards per Pass data at Pro Football Reference, here are the other first round picks who had at least an average passing season or better in their first two years in a league while throwing 300 or more passes, but were playing for a different franchise by year 6:
- Jim Plunkett
- Kerry Collins
- Byron Leftwich
- Jay Cutler
- Josh Freeman
Every case is a little different. None hit the highs of Griffin. Plunkett was also the Heisman winner and early pick for a moribund franchise (yes, the Patriots were once the opposite of a franchise you wanted to play for), and was selected UPI AFC Rookie of the Year. Collins made a pro bowl in his second year and the expansion Panthers reached a title game. Cutler reached a pro bowl, Freeman posted a 95.6 passer rating at age 22, and Leftwich also put together an above average season in 2004.
While he didn’t fit the specific search criteria, Doug Williams also fits the spirit as well. (He only threw 194 passes as rookie but was above average). Williams led a bad expansion franchise to a playoff appearance in just his second year, and eventually left the Buccaneers feeling under appreciated, signing with the USFL in 1983.
For Plunkett, it was wanting a trade to go back to California, for a franchise that continued to flounder. He got his wish in 1976 with a big trade to San Francisco that included three first round picks, but Plunkett’s time on the other side of the Bay was forgettable.
For Collins, it was personal demons and drinking that affected his time in Carolina, and he was sent packing. He turned up in New Orleans, briefly, before getting his chance for redemption in New York with the Giants.
None of those three that would eventually get to a Super Bowl did so right away, though. Williams had to come back and sit the bench in Washington after the USFL, before getting his second chance. Plunkett bombed in San Francisco, and threw a total of 15 passes in Oakland in 1978 and 1979 before getting an opportunity in 1980. Collins had 7 forgettable games in New Orleans after a mid-season trade in 1998, before sitting behind Kent Graham in New York to start the next year.
Griffin can absolutely bounce back. He can get healthy, and get right. It may not happen right away, though. He may need to hit bottom to come back to the top. The situation that gives him the best chance to start right away will probably not be the same as the one that will allow him to regain his potential.