RGIII Was Great Passing Inside and Outside the Pocket as a Rookie, What Happened?

Robert Griffin III might be the best buy-low stock in the NFL right now – assuming a) the Redskins trade him and b) he goes to the right system. When you look at how his stats have changed over the first three years, you’ll see why.

We’ve already covered the knocks on RGIII: His penchant to give up on reading the defense and tuck and run. Also, after three seasons, he still doesn’t know how to slide or when to get out of bounds. No QB takes hits like RGIII does, and pretty soon somebody will mock his head and body over the board game Operation.

That being said, he’s 25, was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2012, and why is everyone ready to discard a QB who has been hurt the last two years, and struggled to learn an entirely new system in 2014?

I reached out to Aaron Schatz of the Football Outsiders & ESPN Stats and Information, and he provided these stats on RGIII’s passing over the first three years of his career.

These are RGIII’s outside-the-pocket numbers, and include his sacks and scrambles.

2012 21.6% of time out of pocket (4th among QBs)
2013 20.3% of time out of pocket (6th)
2014 21.0% of time out of pocket (3rd)

As you can see, RGIII has been running for his life all three seasons. He’s essentially been outside the pocket every fifth play in his career. Few quarterbacks scramble as much as he has in the last three years. This is partly due to his woeful offensive line, but also because it’s in his nature to tuck-and-run as soon as his first option is taken away.

Here’s where you can tell RGIII has fallen off badly due to injuries and the new system that was implemented by new head coach Jay Gruden:

Year IN OUT IN OUT
2012 7.4 7.0 39.7% 21.6%
2013 6.0 6.3 2.0% -18.0%
2014 6.2 4.8 -20.5% -28.3%

Pessimists might say that teams simply “figured out” RGIII after that rookie year, and that’s why his stats plummeted. It’s possible. His pocket passing in the new system under Jay Gruden was ghastly, and when he scrambled, it got worse. Also, Washington had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season.

Lastly, we have the outside-the-pocket passing numbers, but with sacks and scrambles removed. Just passing. Not good. A precipitous fall in 2014 when Jay Gruden took over.

Year Yds Per Play DVOA
2012 6.1 6.0%
2013 7.9 -3.0%
2014 5.5 -13.5%

If you’re curious what DVOA means … the explainer is here.

In summation: Try to remove all bias for a moment. Disregard the city you live in or any previous football allegiances. Robert Griffin III had such a good rookie year, he beat out Andrew Luck for the ROY, and got the Redskins to the playoffs. It’s been all downhill from there. Injuries. The toxic situation with his coach (Mike Shanahan) and the team’s inept owner (Daniel Snyder). Then came the new coach, whose style doesn’t fit what RGIII does best. Keeping in mind that several “experts” advocated the Colts draft RGIII ahead of Luck in 2012, are you in the boat that says:

RGIII isn’t done, and once he gets healthy and in the right system, will flourish again

RGIII is damaged goods, will never put up those lofty rookie year stats again, and his out-of-control ego can never be reigned in.

Sign me up for A.